Skills: shared outcomes framework

Shared Outcomes Framework

1. This Shared Outcomes Framework (the framework) is the means by which Skills Development Scotland (SDS) and the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) (“the agencies”) will monitor and report on collaborative projects that contribute to overarching skills outcomes, set in the National Strategy for Economic Transformation (NSET) and the missions of the Future Skills Action Plan, in particular around the alignment of economic demand with current and future provision. The actions outlined in this framework also contribute to delivery of the outcomes in the National Performance Framework.

2. The Framework defines the collaborative projects that are geared towards the strategic intent of supporting enhanced alignment of provision with economic need, resulting in a more agile and responsive system, including a more balanced portfolio of provision where the evidence supports this being needed. This is what is intended through references to skills alignment. The Framework sets out strategic objectives, key milestones, deliverables, impacts and measures to enable more effective monitoring and reporting of joint action in this area and to track the impact of these projects in the wider economy.

3. The Framework enables the cumulative impacts and learning from this suite of projects to be considered by the Shared Outcomes Assurance Group (Governance diagram at Annex A) to ensure that efficiencies are identified; that action is taken to minimise duplication and that lessons learned in one area can be applied in others. The learning and evidence from these projects will also help inform the future work to set the Vision, Purpose and Principles^[1] for tertiary education, skills and research in Scotland as recommended in the SFC Review of Coherent Provision and Sustainability.

4. This Framework does not reflect the totality of the contribution that both agencies make to supporting the tertiary education and skills system in Scotland (Annex B) and does not capture the full range of national outcomes to which both agencies contribute.

5. The Shared Outcomes Assurance Group builds on the task and finish work of the Skills Alignment Assurance Group to monitor, constructively challenge and champion the work across the joint agency projects that form part of the Shared Outcomes Framework between SDS and SFC. The Terms of Reference for this group can be found at Annex C.

6. In recognition of the dynamic skills environment and the need to continuously develop and improve the ways in which we measure progress, this is a live framework that will continue to be developed and adapted as measures and impacts for individual projects are identified. Additional collaborative projects and programmes can be added over time or removed once completed and reflected as “business as usual” activity.

7. The purpose of the framework is to provide;

• Clarity on the areas where both agencies are working collaboratively to achieve greater alignment between economic demand and skills provision.
• Detail on the impacts and outcomes that individual projects will deliver including clear timescales and milestones.
• The basis from which detailed monitoring, reporting and assurance can be provided from project and through programme level governance up to and including the 6 weekly joint agency Ministerial meeting.

8. The governance underpinning work on these collaborative projects is outlined in Annex B.

How has our thinking evolved?

9. The Phase 2 Report of the Enterprise and Skills Review on Skills Alignment set out the intended benefits as being;

• Learners will be able to access provision which enables them to develop the skills required to contribute to a highly productive workforce.
• Employers will experience reductions in skills gaps and improvements in the skills of their workforce.
• Through collaboration, the capacity of colleges, universities and training providers will be developed and deployed to maximum effect.
• Duplication in public funding will be addressed, leading to more efficient investment in human capital through the education and skills system, and the upskilling and reskilling of existing workers

10. The National Strategy for Economic Transformation takes account of our changed economic context as a result of Covid and EU Exit and sets a clear direction of travel for action on skills. As such, NSET describes the evolution of previous thinking into three programmes of work directed towards ensuring that people have the skills they need at every stage of life to have rewarding careers and meet the demands of an ever changing economy and society.

The three programmes of activity as described in the NSET will support;

• Adapting the education and skills system to make it more agile and responsive to our economic needs and ambitions;
• Supporting and incentivising individuals and employers to invest in skills and training throughout their working lives; and
• Expansion of Scotland’s available talent pool at all skill levels.

11. Our collective understanding of skills issues and the cause and effect across demand and supply side measures has also developed and evolved as we have sought to implement the ambition for skills alignment as originally envisaged. This is reflected in the shape and nature of the collaborative projects currently being progressed. This activity now builds on the learning from previous pilots and will provide the baseline for the test of change that is needed to expand these approaches to different sectors and regions.

Context – Where are we now?

12. The economic evidence paper that accompanied the publication of the NSET sets out the context for skills in Scotland.

13. Skills enable people to participate and progress in the labour market. Providing people with the opportunities to develop skills – irrespective of who they are and where they live – is a key driver of improved economic performance and wellbeing, which sits at the heart of the Scottish Government’s economic and labour market strategies.

14. People with higher skills are more likely to be in employment. As well as improving the likelihood of being in employment, investing in skills helps people to progress to more fulfilling, secure, well-paid and fair work. This has wider social benefits.

15. Overall, a highly-skilled and engaged workforce is a key requisite for a successful economy. Skills increase an individual’s ability to do advanced tasks that add more value to the economy. Indirect impacts include enabling the development and application of more productive technology and innovation, supporting enhanced productivity and entrepreneurship and contributing to Scotland’s attractiveness as a destination for inward investment.

16. Scotland has performed well in post school education and has one of the highest shares of the workforce with at least tertiary education in Europe. However, the economy still faces a wide range of challenges with respect to skills, including:

• General skills shortages as measured by prevalence of 'skills shortage vacancies'. The labour market challenge has grown as economic activity has recovered following the pandemic and with impacts of EU exit on migration;
• An aging population, which is also translating to an aging workforce. There is evidence the working life is getting longer with increasingly more people working beyond the retirement age. Latest projections suggest that these trends are long term and will continue. This highlights the importance of investing in lifelong learning.
• While Scotland has depended on migration to meet skills and workforce requirements – especially in some sectors; its share of foreign-born population is much lower when compared to other OECD countries. Brexit will have reduced this further
• Despite having challenges with respect to skills and general labour shortages, around one in five of Scotland's working age population is inactive. This group is complex and includes people with a long term life limiting illness, full time students, those discouraged from seeking work, and those who would take a job if other support was available. The share of inactive workers reporting that they are discouraged or not interested in work is extremely small (1 per cent). There is more that must be done to support those who want to work, but who are least able to, to be supported to access opportunities.

17. Addressing these challenges is critical if we are to build and maintain Scotland’s reputation for having a highly skilled workforce including; adapting and developing capability in response to the transition to net zero, increased digitalisation and AI as well as responding to the demographic challenges of Scotland’s ageing population with more in-work training and upskilling and reskilling throughout our working lives.

18. This Framework is a core part of developing our understanding of how both agencies can work most effectively to support these outcomes and how we can deliver enhanced alignment of provision with economic need, resulting in a more agile and responsive system.

Figure 1 – National Skills Outcomes and contributions through NSET to National Performance Framework

National Performance Framework Outcomes

Children and Young People - We grow up loved, safe and respected so that we realise our full potential

Economy - We have a globally competitive, entrepreneurial, inclusive

Education - We are well educated, skilled and able to contribute to society

Fair Work and Business - We have thriving and innovative businesses, with quality jobs

Vision for Skills^[2]

Scotland’s skills system works for;

People - who can access the skills they need at every stage of life to have rewarding careers and meet the demands of an ever-changing economy and society

Employers - who can access the right people with the right skills and who invest in the skilled employees they need to develop their organisations

This will be achieved by;

SFC and SDS working together to analyse labour market and other key data, and ensuring that between them, they can ensure they drive the provision of the right skills opportunities in the right places.

Ensuring that this approach results in both organisations operating at maximum efficiency, where investment is required this takes into account the wider financial context, and savings are identified where possible.

High Level Actions for Skills (NSET programmes)

Adapt the education and skills system to make it more agile and responsive to our economic needs and ambitions

Support and incentivise people, and their employers, to invest in skills and training throughout their working lives.

Expand Scotland’s available talent pool, at all skills levels, to give employers the skills pipeline they need to take advantage of opportunities.

High Level National Indicators^[3] (NPF)

Percentage of young adults (16-19 year olds) participating in education, training or employment - 92.2% (up 1.5% on 2020) (can be broken down by age, disability, ethnicity, gender and SIMD)

Proportion of adults aged 16-64 with low or no qualifications at SCQF level 4 or below. – 9.7% in 2020 (down 1.9% on 2019) (can be broken down by age, disability, ethnicity, gender and SIMD)

Proportion of establishments reporting at least one skills shortage vacancy.^[4] 3% (down 3% on 2017) (can be broken down by establishment size, region, and sector)

Percentage of employees who received on the job training in the last 3 months. – 22.3% (down 1.5% on 2019) (can be broken down by age, disability, ethnicity and gender)

Proportion of all staff with skills and qualifications more advanced than required for their current job role - 8% in 2020 (down 1% on 2017) (can be broken down by establishment size, region, and sector)

Skills Development Scotland and the Scottish Funding Council

19. Between them SDS and the SFC are responsible for the effective and efficient stewardship of investment to drive positive outcomes through the tertiary education, skills and research systems for the benefit of Scotland’s economy and society.

20. The strategic plans^[5][6] of both organisations are rooted in the North Star of the National Performance Framework outcomes and, in particular in relation to skills, supporting the delivery of key priorities including Covid Recovery, the National Strategy for Economic Transformation and delivery of the missions of the Future Skills Action Plan.

21. SDS and SFC support employer leadership of apprenticeships through the Scottish Apprenticeship Advisory Board (SAAB). The SAAB is an industry led board that ensures apprenticeships in Scotland are fit for purpose and adapt to the changing needs of Scotland’s employers and economy. SAAB maintains the integrity of the apprenticeship family (Foundation, Modern & Graduate Apprenticeships) in Scotland. This includes overseeing governance of all apprenticeship frameworks and standards; ensuring apprenticeships are aligned with industry and economic demand; making recommendations on continuous improvement activities, including equalities & diversity; promoting apprenticeship pathways to employers and prospective apprentices.

22. This Shared Outcomes Framework does not seek to describe the totality of activity delivered through each agency. It covers a number of collaborative projects, targeted towards meeting the vision for the skills system outlined in Figure 1. that both agencies have agreed to work on together as part of delivering their wider remits (as outlined in Annex B).

Shared Outcomes Framework – Collaborative Projects

23. The projects that form the Shared Outcomes Framework are a mix of new projects, tests of change and continuous improvements to established programmes, all of which are designed to improve Scotland’s skills offer for individuals and for employers for the benefit of Scotland’s economy and wider society.

24. These projects will contribute to the vision and outcomes illustrated in Figure 1. but are not intended to represent the totality of projects and programmes being delivered, both by the agencies and other partners, that will also support delivery of those outcomes.

25. The Framework (Tables 1-4) seeks to identify the cumulative outcomes that we expect to achieve through delivery of these collaborative projects and how we will measure them.

26. These outcomes and measures, along with the vision, objectives, milestones and deliverables for each project are also set out in the associated project level documentation and provide the means by which the Shared Outcomes Assurance Group will monitor progress and provide assurance to Ministers and the Chairs and Chief Executives of both agencies in advance of their 6 weekly joint Ministerial meeting.

Table 1: Outcomes and Indicative Measures for Individuals

Outcomes

Individuals have the skills to secure quality employment or entrepreneurial opportunities in the areas of need identified through the projects.

Indicative Measures^[7]

• Foundation Apprenticeships successfully completed
• Holding measure: Over time, increased provision in areas of demand identified by the Pathfinders (2* Regional / CESAP / Decarbonisation of Heating)
• Holding measure: Increased provision in upskilling and reskilling in areas identified by the Pathfinders

Outcomes

Individuals have the skills to progress in their careers.

Indicative Measures^[8]

• GAs successfully completed
• Career progression rates (as evidenced through LEO)
• Percentage of workforce appropriately skilled for their roles (Scottish Employer Skills Survey)
• Holding measure: Over time, evidence of adaptation or expansion of provision in areas identified by the projects (these measures can only be agreed in detail once the Regional and CESAP Pathfinders have concluded their initial work to identify the baseline position and the evidence supports the change to be tracked over time)
• Holding measure: Adapting provision of upskilling and reskilling in areas identified by the projects (these measures can only be agreed in detail once the Regional and CESAP Pathfinders have concluded their initial work to identify the baseline position and the evidence supports the change to be tracked over time)

Table 2: Outcomes and Indicative Measures for Employers

Outcomes

• Indicative Measures

Through the projects, employers are more active participants in shaping the delivery of skills provision.

• Evidence of enhanced employer engagement, alongside providers, in development of Apprenticeship Framework and Standards. (through surveys by independent sources)
• Evidence of enhanced employer engagement in the development of FE / HE curriculum content. (through surveys by independent sources)

Employers can access skills provision that supports their growth and productivity.

• Reduced skills shortages in those areas of demand targeted by the projects (SESS plus additional surveys as required)

Table 3: Outcomes and Indicative Measures for Government and Agencies

Outcomes

• Indicative Measures

Improved collaborative process, driven by a shared vision and supported by strong and effective governance.

• Clarity on roles and responsibilities of agencies/SG for development and delivery through letters of guidance, Shared Outcomes Framework and individual project documentation
• Clear lines of accountability and assurance through SOAG ToR and Ministerial meeting
• Simplified / consistent letters of guidance including Shared Outcomes Framework.
• Future Audit Scotland review of progress

Strengthening of a common evidence base used across the projects to inform dynamic skills planning provision.

• Data sharing protocols are in place
• Any collaborative analytical outputs are high quality and trusted by experts/specialists and the audiences using them

Table 4: Outcomes and Indicative Measures for Economy and Society

Outcomes

• Indicative Measures

Over time, a supply of talent based on a stronger focus on the outcomes of provision to meet areas of identified skills need.

• Evidence of reduction in skills shortages in areas of demand identified through the Pathfinders and targeted through FA and GA Frameworks
• Holding measure: Over time, evidence of adaptation or expansion of provision in areas identified by the projects (these measures can only be agreed in detail once the Regional and CESAP Pathfinders have concluded their initial work to identify the baseline position and the evidence supports the change to be tracked over time)
• Holding measure: Adapting provision of upskilling and reskilling in areas identified by the projects (these measures can only be agreed in detail once the Regional and CESAP Pathfinders have concluded their initial work to identify the baseline position and the evidence supports the change to be tracked over time)Holding measure: Increased provision in upskilling and reskilling in areas identified by the Pathfinders

Over time, we move towards a balanced portfolio of provision that aligns with economic and business needs

• Adapting provision in upskilling and reskilling in areas identified by the projects, based on evidence
• Over time, adapting provision in areas of demand identified by the projects, based on evidence
• Number of Apprenticeship Frameworks updated in areas of demand relating to the projects
• No of FE / HE curriculum updated in areas of demand relating to the projects

Project Type	Project	Vision	Activity Overview	Outputs	Milestones	Outcomes
Continuous Improvement	FAs	FAs are embedded within the education and skills system as a valued pathway to achieving positive outcomes	Allocations are informed by employer demand statements, LMI and contextualised institutional knowledge. Quality Management and enhancement processes agreed across all delivery partners. Shared comms and marketing strategy	Alignment of letters of guidance Evidence and insights from learners, employers and delivery providers to inform future approach to FAs, including equalities and equity of participation Delivery and take up of 5000 FA opportunities aligned to regional demand and pupil supply Increase number of learners completing and successfully achieving the full award	Oct 21 - Annual demand statement March 22 SFC Indicative allocations to Colleges March 22 SDS Grants awarded May 22 SFC Final College funding allocations Sept 22 – Confirm recruitment volumes 2023 TBC–Evaluation or assessment TBC	Employers are involved in shaping delivery of FAs Well established model for funding and programme management between agencies Shared vision for the future of FAs, based on evidence.
	GAs	GAs are embedded within the education and skills system as a valued pathway to achieving positive outcomes	Allocations are informed by employer demand statements, LMI and contextualised institutional knowledge. Agree Quality Management and enhancement processes and approach Joint comms and marketing strategy	Alignment of letters of guidance Joint approach to capacity building and delivery support across stakeholders Liaison with all associated GA awarding and Professional Bodies on programme /framework development	Oct 21 - Annual demand statement March 22 SFC Indicative allocations to Universities May 22 SFC Final University funding allocations confirmed. March 23 – Confirm in –training learners 2023 TBC – Evaluation or Assessment TBC	GA’s are a core part of the work based learning and education and skills system offer Provide clear work based learning routes into employment in areas of demand.
	Education and Skills Impact Framework	To develop a robust evidence base that can help inform investment in post-school education and skills to enable a skills system that maximises both the return to public investment and the benefits to individual learners and employers.	Economic impact work stream split into the impact on individuals, the Scottish exchequer and (for MAs currently) employers Social/wellbeing impact work stream to capture individual wellbeing and wider social benefits from learning pathways, to reflect that economic benefits are not the only objective of education.	A set of labour market returns from the investment in education and skills by individuals, expressed in terms of increased earnings, increased likelihood to be in employment and reduced benefit dependency (based on a comparator group) Estimates of wider social benefits to individuals and society A forward research and analytical plan, building on collaborative approach to date. A further assessment of economic, social and wellbeing data relevant to the NSET and FSAP missions.	Jan – Jun 21 – Development of econometric model Apr 22 – initial findings Post Apr 22 – building partner capacity and knowledge to allow internal delivery of future models	Improved understanding of the range of economic outcomes and impacts that the education and skills system could be having for Scotland, and collation of a literature review appropriate to this. Improved understanding of the range of social and well-being outcomes and impacts that the education and skills system could be having for Scotland, and collation of a literature review appropriate to this.
Test of Change	Regional Provision Pathfinder - North East	Through evidence gathering, analysis and collaborative action SFC will work with SDS and partners to explore how provision planning and curriculum design can better ensure the education and skills system is responsive, integrated and supports inclusive economic recovery	Data and analysis: an understanding of current skills provision, unmet demand, available data and other evidence Regional priorities: Developing approaches to provision planning at a regional level, advancing collaboration, deepening strategic relationships with employers and piloting new ways of working. Process analysis: Examining how the provision planning process and curriculum design addresses economic and social need, the influence of key partners and opportunities for more efficient and effective processes Learning and dissemination	An analysis of provision across colleges, universities and private training providers An analysis of recruitment difficulties and any apparent unmet demand A report on the availability and use of data An assessment of pathways between school, colleges and universities and to apprenticeships Delivery of a small number of collaborative pilot projects addressing regional skills priorities, led and developed by Regional Pathfinder Project Boards. Recommendations on the production of structured good practice guidance that can be shared more widely across the tertiary education and skills system of providers. Case studies to explain the way provision planning and curriculum design decisions are made and the influence on learner journeys A report on lessons learned from pathfinder activity and recommendations to take forward good practice guidance Considered insight pieces from leading academics and practitioners	Mar –Oct 22 Data and analysis, regional priorities and process analysis Oct-22 - Jan 23 Learning and Dissemination	Learners will have efficient and effective routes to education and skills provision Employers will see tangible action to address specific skills issues in pathfinder regions Employers will have increased opportunities to work with colleges and universities to plan for the skills they need to change and innovate Increased understanding across the sector of good practice and new thinking in skills analysis and alignment Enhanced partnership working and planning across the system. Improved efficiency, enhanced data sharing and use of evidence Insight into potential future changes to approaches to funding and engagement A strengthened evience-base for national decision making
	Regional Provision Pathfinder - South of Scotland
	Pathfinder CESAP – Net Zero	SDS and SFC will work jointly to meet the challenge of the transition to net zero through an evidence led, demand driven, dynamic skills response that creates agile, adaptive and resilient workers, with the skills to secure and progress in the current and future labour market.	Developing a comprehensive picture and evidence based assessment of skills demand in net zero transition sectors Mapping skills provision across colleges, universities and apprenticeships to understand current skills investment in support of net zero, including upskilling and reskilling. Undertaking a gap analysis to support emerging opportunities from the transition to net zero and development of costed programme of research over 5 years and future priority areas for alignment.	A comprehensive mapping of existing demand intelligence in relation to the transition to net zero delivering. A comprehensive mapping of skills provision across colleges, universities and apprenticeships (including upskilling and reskilling) A gap analysis to agree areas for future alignment to emerging opportunities from the transition to net zero	April 2022 - Undertaking a ‘Green’ Investment Mapping, Developing a taxonomy and process map of ‘green provision’ May 2022 – Definition of Green Jobs, Reviewing Datasets and Research Relevant to the Transition to Net Zero, Mapping Wider Investment by Colleges and Universities to Support the Transition to NetZero, Mapping Employer Investment in Green Skills June 2022 – Mapping of Scottish Apprenticeships July 2022 - Mapping Upskilling/Reskilling Activity and undertaking gap analysis Sep 2022 - Developing Evidenced Based Demand Statement(s) and Developing a future research programme TBC - Mapping College and University Provision, Mapping Scottish Government investment in Green Skills	More individuals with the skills to access green job opportunities Fewer employers with green skills demands (with skills shortages and skills gaps) Increased upskilling and reskilling opportunities for individuals to capitalise on job opportunities emerging from the transition to net zero Strong and effective relationships across SDS and SFC Focussed collaboration across SDS, SFC and SG to understand green skills demand and provision Established and agreed processes across SDS, SFC and partners to review and validate the evidence for green skills demand and provision evidence Common understanding and agreement of green skills in Scotland Access to robust data and intelligence to inform skills planning (in key sectors) supporting the transition to net zero in Scotland Investment in green skills is driven by the evidence of current and future needs of the transition to net zero Over time, adaptations or increases in provision supporting the transition to net zero, based on the evidence of the pathfinder. Over time, based on the evidence, enhanced curriculum and qualifications in disciplines supporting the transition to net zero.
	Pathfinder Commercial and Domestic Heat in Buildings	SDS and SFC will work collaboratively to meet the challenge of the transition to net zero through an evidence led, demand driven, dynamic skills response that creates agile, adaptive and resilient workers, with the skills to secure and progress in the current and future labour market.	Understanding the programme of investment to support the decarbonisation of domestic and commercial heating (in the pilot area e.g. Glasgow City Region) Gaining a clear understanding of the operating context Undertaking robust analysis of likely job demand (drawing on data and insight), including a detailed assessment of the skill requirements for job opportunities, in relation to the decarbonisation of domestic and commercial heating. Gathering the evidence needed to make recommendations on the required skills provision to facilitate access to the job opportunities driven by the decarbonisation of domestic and commercial heating. Reviewing and evaluating existing and planned provision to support the decarbonisation of domestic and commercial heating and identifying gaps in the pilot area Co-designing an approach to support the de-carbonisation of domestic and commercial heating (in the pilot region). Monitoring and evaluating the changes needed to provision to support the decarbonisation of domestic and commercial heating	A mapping of planned investment in the region with a clear understanding of the source and scale of investment, timelines and localities. A clear picture of the operating context, including an understanding of opportunities and challenges in the delivery of the decarbonisation of domestic and commercial heating. Detailed data, analysis and insight on potential skills demand needed (in the pilot region) Mapping of existing and planned investment and skills provision Mapping of existing and planned investment and skills provision Gap analysis of current/planned provision Identification and articulation of changes required to ensure that current/planned provision supports access to job opportunities Facilitated workshops to test findings with CESAP Implementation Steering Group (ISG) and other appropriate regional and sectoral coalitions A co-designed approach with skills providers across academic and work-based learning pathways to co-design an approach to implement change. A strengthening of existing mechanisms to facilitate change where appropriate e.g. WBL demand assessment and Impact and Outcome agreements, (in the pilot area) The establishment of success criteria and governance mechanisms. A review of effectiveness of the process of assessing job demand and current provision (in the pilot). (Timing – TBC) A review of effectiveness of the gap analysis process and approach to implement change (in the pilot). (Timing – TBC) An evaluation of the action taken around changes in provision (in the pilot). (Timing – TBC) A series of lessons learned to form the basis of an enhanced future response	May 2022 – Project to commence, other timings TBC	More individuals with the skills to access and progress in green job opportunities (e.g. in decarbonisation of domestic and commercial heating in Glasgow – TBC) Fewer employers with green skills demands (e.g. in decarbonisation of domestic and commercial heating in Glasgow – TBC) with skills shortages and skills gaps Focussed collaboration built on strong and effective relationships across SDS, SFC and SG to understand green skills demand and provision Established and agreed processes across SDS, SFC and partners to review and validate the evidence for green skills demand and provision evidence Common understanding and agreement of green skills in Scotland Access to robust data and intelligence to inform skills planning and drive investment (in key sectors) supporting the transition to net zero in Scotland Over time, in line with the evidence, adaptions or increases to provision supporting the transition to net zero to meet identified need (e.g. in decarbonisation of domestic and commercial heating in Glasgow – TBC) Over time, based on the evidence of the projects, increased investment in provision supporting the transition to net zero to meet identified need (e.g. in decarbonisation of domestic and commercial heating in Glasgow – TBC)
Developing	Lifelong Upskilling and Reskilling	This project is still in development and further detail will be published in future iterations of this document.