Scottish Marine and Freshwater Science Volume 5 Number 13: Population consequences of displacement from proposed offshore wind energy developments for seabirds breeding at Scottish SPAs
Report on a project which aimed to develop a model to estimate the population consequences of displacement from proposed offshore wind energy developments for key species of seabirds breeding at SPAs in proximity to proposed Forth/Tay offshore wind farm d
Appendix H. Reliability of adjustment factors
Table H1. Reliability of adjustment factors associated with adult survival. The column 'Main' refers to the adjustment factors used in the main assessment (Table 3:2). The columns MC Q25 and MC Q75 contain 25% and 75% quantiles for this adjustment factor, as derived from 50 additional simulation runs of the model. d is derived from these three quantities (see Section 2.6.3), and the value of d is used to classify the level of reliability (high: d < 0.1, moderate: 0.1 < d < 0.2, low d > 0.4).
Table H2. Reliability of adjustment factors associated with breeding success. The column 'Main' refers to the adjustment factors used in the main assessment (Table 3:3). The columns MC Q25 and MC Q75 contain 25% and 75% quantiles for this adjustment factor, as derived from 50 additional simulation runs of the model. d is derived from these three quantities (see Section 2.6.3), and the value of d is used to classify the level of reliability (high: d < 0.1, moderate: 0.1 < d < 0.2, low d > 0.4).
Table H3. Cumulative effects on adult survival: comparison of results obtained by using only wind farms whose effects are estimated with high reliability when estimating adjustment factors against those obtained by using wind farms with either high or moderate reliability.
| Species | SPA | Prey type | ADULT SURVIVAL | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big model | Adjustment factor | Big model adjusted | |||||
| Good | Mod+Good | Good | Mod+Good | ||||
| Kittiwake | Forth Islands | Hom | -6.62 | 0.30 | 0.30 | -1.99 | -1.99 |
| Het | -6.58 | 0.28 | 0.28 | -1.84 | -1.84 | ||
| Kittiwake | Fowlsheugh | Hom | -1.04 | 0.46 | 0.46 | -0.48 | -0.48 |
| Het | -0.81 | 0.47 | 0.55 | -0.38 | -0.45 | ||
| Kittiwake | St Abbs | Hom | -0.45 | 0.33 | 0.41 | -0.15 | -0.18 |
| Het | -0.73 | Not calculated | 0.30 | Not calculated | -0.22 | ||
| Puffin | Forth Islands | Hom | -13.00 | 0.25 | 0.26 | -3.25 | -3.38 |
| Het | -7.22 | -0.01 | -0.01 | 0.07 | 0.07 | ||
| Razorbill | Forth Islands | Hom | -0.82 | 1.00 | 1.00 | -0.82 | -0.82 |
| Het | -0.75 | 0.28 | 0.32 | -0.21 | -0.24 | ||
Table H4. Cumulative effects on breeding success: comparison of results obtained by using only wind farms whose effects are estimated with high reliability when estimating adjustment factors against those obtained by using wind farms with either high or moderate reliability.
| Species | SPA | Prey type | BREEDING SUCCESS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big model | Adjustment factor | Big model adjusted | |||||
| Good | Mod+Good | Good | Mod+Good | ||||
| Kittiwake | Forth Islands | Hom | -11.86 | 0.18 | 0.18 | -2.14 | -2.14 |
| Het | -8.12 | 0.14 | 0.14 | -1.14 | -1.14 | ||
| Kittiwake | Fowlsheugh | Hom | -3.29 | Not calculated | 0.51 | Not calculated | -1.68 |
| Het | -2.02 | Not calculated | Not calculated | Not calculated | Not calculated | ||
| Kittiwake | St Abbs | Hom | 0.84 | Not calculated | Not calculated | Not calculated | Not calculated |
| Het | -0.14 | Not calculated | Not calculated | Not calculated | Not calculated | ||
| Puffin | Forth Islands | Hom | -22.31 | 0.18 | 0.22 | -4.02 | -4.91 |
| Het | -11.43 | 0.14 | 0.14 | -1.60 | -1.60 | ||
| Razorbill | Forth Islands | Hom | -3.66 | 1.00 | -0.54 | -3.66 | 1.98 |
| Het | -1.76 | 1.66 | 1.66 | -2.92 | -2.92 | ||
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