Scottish Economic Bulletin - August 2026
Provides a summary of latest key economic statistics, forecasts and analysis on the Scottish economy.
Data and Forecasts Summary
Outturn Data
|
Indicator |
Latest Data |
Next Release |
Dec 2025 |
Jan 2026 |
Feb 2026 |
Mar 2026 |
Apr 2026 |
May 2026 |
Jun 2026 |
Jul 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GDP growth (3-month rolling %) |
0.6% (May) |
26 August |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
n/a |
n/a |
|
Unemployment rate (%) |
4.7% (Mar - May) |
18 August |
3.9 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
n/a |
n/a |
|
Real Earnings growth (YoY %) |
2.1% (June) |
19 August |
1.1 |
1.7 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
n/a |
|
Inflation rate (CPI YoY %) |
2.6% (June) |
19 August |
3.4 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.3 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
n/a |
|
BoE Base Rate (%) |
3.75% (July) |
17 September |
3.75 |
3.75 |
3.75 |
3.75 |
3.75 |
3.75 |
3.75 |
3.75 |
|
Consumer Sentiment (Index) |
-8.2 (June) |
26 August |
-9.6 |
-5.9 |
-4.6 |
-15.4 |
-16.7 |
-13.0 |
-8.2 |
n/a |
Forecasts
|
Indicator |
Organsiation |
Date of Forecast |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GDP growth (YoY %) |
SFC |
January 2026 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
Unemployment rate (%) |
SFC |
January 2026 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
|
Nominal Average Earnings growth (YoY %) |
SFC |
January 2026 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
|
Inflation rate (4Q rate in Q4) |
BoE |
July 2026 |
3.2 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
n/a |
n/a |
Contact
Email: economic.statistics@gov.scot