Scotland's Labour Market Overview: December 2023

Unemployment

Unemployment measures those who are available for and actively seeking employment. The adjusted experimental unemployment rate for Scotland had been historically decreasing over time, before rising sharply following the 2008 recession. The unemployment rate has been broadly decreasing since 2011, with a small increase in 2020 and 2021 due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Scotland’s unemployment rate is similar to the UK rate over time, although was historically slightly higher before 2006.

Figure 11: Adjusted experimental unemployment rate for Scotland (3.8 per cent) in August to October 2023 is lower than the UK (4.2 per cent) for the same period

Adjusted experimental unemployment rates for persons aged 16 and over, Scotland and the UK, November to January 1997 to August to October 2023

Source: Labour Force Survey from ONS, PAYE RTI from HMRC and Claimant Count from ONS, seasonally adjusted

Sex

The ONS adjusted experimental unemployment rates are not published by sex. Therefore, the information in this section covers ONS Labour Force Survey data for the period to April to June 2023.

The unemployment rate for men in Scotland has generally been above the unemployment rate for women. In April to June 2023, the estimated unemployment rate for men in Scotland was 4.1 per cent and for women it was 3.9 per cent.

Figure 12: Unemployment rates for men are historically higher than the unemployment rates for women

Unemployment rates for persons aged 16 and over by sex, Scotland, November to January 1997 to April to June 2023

Source: Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted, ONS

Age

Across the series, the unemployment rate for those aged 16 to 24 has been consistently higher than the unemployment rate for any other age group.

Figure 13: Unemployment rate for those aged 16 to 24 in Scotland has been continually higher than any other age group

Unemployment rates for persons aged 16 and over by age group, Scotland, year ending September 2005 to year ending September 2023

Source: Annual Population Survey, Oct-Sep datasets, ONS

Length of time unemployed

In October 2022 to September 2023, an estimated 94,900 people aged 16 and over were unemployed.

• For Scotland, the majority of those who are unemployed were unemployed for a duration of 6 months or less (62.4 per cent). This proportion decreased during the coronavirus pandemic to 49.7 per cent in October 2020 to September 2021, indicating at that time there were more people unemployed for longer durations. However, this has since returned to pre-covid levels.

Being unemployed for 12 months or more is often considered long-term unemployed

• 26.7 per cent of unemployed people were unemployed for 12 months or more

Figure 14: The majority of people aged 16 and over who are unemployed have been unemployed for six months or less

Proportion of people aged 16 and over who are unemployed by duration, Scotland, year ending September 2005 to year ending September 2023

Source: Annual Population Survey, Oct-Sep datasets, ONS

Note: The estimates for 6-12 months and 12-24 months for October 2022 to September 2023 are based on a small sample size. Estimates may be less precise and should be used with caution.

Claimant Count

The experimental Claimant Count consists of claimants of Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) and some Universal Credit (UC) Claimants. The UC claimants that are included are 1) those that were recorded as not in employment (May 2013-April 2015), and 2) those claimants of Universal Credit who are required to search for work, i.e. within the Searching for Work conditionality regime as defined by the Department for Work & Pensions (from April 2015 onwards).  The denominator for the claimant count rate is the claimant count plus workforce jobs.  Estimates included in this publication are seasonally adjusted.

Claimant count is related to unemployment, although not an exact measure of it. Its definition has changed over time, please see Data and Methodology section for more details.

In November 2023, the claimant count was 109,200, an increase of 500 (0.4 per cent) over the month and a decrease of 3,200 (-2.9 per cent) over the year.  In November 2023, the claimant count rate was 3.6 per cent in Scotland, compared with 4.0 per cent for the UK as a whole.

The Claimant count level and rate peaked during the pandemic before falling to similar pre-pandemic rates in 2022. The rates for Scotland and the UK followed a similar trend during the pandemic, although since late 2021 the rate has been slightly lower in Scotland compared with the UK.  The rates for both Scotland and the UK have been fairly constant since mid-2022.

Figure 15: Experimental claimant count rate for Scotland and the UK showed a large increase at the start of the pandemic, reaching a peak in August 2020 before starting to gradually decrease.

Claimant Count rate, seasonally adjusted, Scotland and UK, November 2018 to November 2023 

Source: Claimant count, ONS

Online Job Adverts

Adzuna online job adverts for Scotland peaked at 56.3 per cent above the February 2020 average just over a year ago in October 2022. February 2020 is the reference period used in this index. Recent estimates show a sharp fall in Scotland’s online job adverts compared with February 2020. Online job adverts are currently 14.1 per cent higher in Scotland compared with the February 2020 comparison.

Since mid-2022, the gap between the UK and Scotland has widened. UK wide Adzuna job adverts are currently just below February 2020.

Figure 16: Online job adverts rose to a higher rate post-covid

Online Job Adverts (Index February 2020 weekly average = 100), Scotland and UK, week ending 7 February 2018 to week ending 8 December 2023

Source: Adzuna weekly online job adverts, ONS