Scotland's Labour Market Insights: July 2026

Key Points

The Scottish Government’s Labour Market Trends publication mainly reports on headline Office for National Statistics (ONS) Labour Force Survey estimates for Scotland.

This Scotland’s Labour Market Insights report contains more detailed estimates describing those who are employed, unemployed or economically inactive as well as information from vacancy and business insights sources.

People in work

• an estimated 73.6% of those in employment aged 16 and over in April 2025 to March 2026 worked full-time, while 26.4% of those in employment worked part-time
• in April 2025 to March 2026, a higher proportion of men aged 16 and over were in full-time employment than women (an estimated 85.5% of men compared to 61.4% of women)
• the employment rate for 16 to 24 year olds has been consistently lower than the employment rate for any other age group since April 2006 to March 2007
• an estimated 11.1% of people in employment aged 16 and over were self-employed in April 2025 to March 2026 (300,700 people)
• in April 2025 to March 2026, an estimated 94.8% of employees aged 16 and over (2,270,900 employees) were employed on permanent contracts
• in January to December 2025, an estimated 6.6% of those in employment aged 16 and over were underemployed (those who are in employment but who want to work more hours)
• the 65 and over and 35 to 49 year old age groups saw the largest growth in the number of payrolled employees over the year to June 2026, while the 65 and over age group saw the largest percentage growth in payrolled employees over the year to June 2026
• real median earnings for payrolled employees (adjusted by CPIH) have grown by 1.8% over the year to June 2026

People not in work

• the majority of unemployed people aged 16 and over have been unemployed for less than six months (an estimated 60.6% of unemployed people in April 2025 to March 2026)
• “long-term sick or disabled” was the main reason given by respondents to the survey for being economically inactive in Scotland. In April 2025 to March 2026, an estimated 34.2% of inactive people aged 16 to 64 gave their reason for being inactive as “long-term sick or disabled”. This is a lower proportion than a year ago
• in April 2025 to March 2026, an estimated 19.3% of people aged 16 to 64 who were inactive reported that they wanted to work, a higher proportion than a year ago
• in January to December 2025, an estimated 8.1% of 16 to 64 year olds in Scotland had never had a paid job (283,400 people). The majority of those were in full-time education (54.8%)

People moving into work

• the number of new online job adverts in Scotland in June 2026 was 43,609, 14% (-6,980) lower than in June 2025
• ONS’s Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) data shows that an estimated 22.1% of businesses reported experiencing difficulties in recruiting employees in May 2026
• No One Left Behind (NOLB) is a strategic approach to employability delivery in Scotland. A total of 104,595 people started receiving support through No One Left Behind from April 2019 to December 2025

Changes to Labour Market Statistics in Scotland

The ONS Annual Population Survey (APS) combines results from the ONS Labour Force Survey (LFS) with local LFS boosts, providing a larger sample for smaller groups of the population. On 29 October 2025, we published a paper outlining the Scottish Government’s decision to discontinue funding for the local LFS boost for Scotland.

The Change to Labour Market Statistics in Scotland: What you need to know paper assesses the impact of removing the local LFS boost for Scotland on labour market statistics for Scotland and sets out our plans to ensure access to high-quality labour market statistics for Scotland going forward.

The latest APS estimates included in this release (April 2025 to March 2026) are the first to show a reduction in sample size due to the removal of the Scottish LFS boost.

Due to the rolling nature of the APS and the time it takes for boost cases to be fully phased out of the sample, the full impact will not be reflected until the January to December 2026 dataset, which is scheduled for publication in April 2027.

In the interim, users will continue to see gradual reductions in sample sizes across overlapping APS periods:

• July 2025 to June 2026
• October 2025 to September 2026

These reductions will culminate in the complete removal of boost responses from the January to December 2026 dataset.

The APS estimates included in this release have been assessed against the current data quality rules and additional data confidence ratings we considered as part of our quality assessment of the APS data - Scottish Government’s Quality Assessment of the Office for National Statistics Labour Force Survey and Annual Population Survey data for Scotland. The estimates in this publication are still appropriate to use. However, users are advised to note the increased uncertainty around these estimates due to the smaller sample sizes.

Important information in relation to data sources

The ONS Labour Force Survey is not a large and robust enough sample to produce reliable estimates for smaller groups of the Scottish population. There has also been increased volatility in Labour Force Survey estimates in recent years. Further information is available in the ONS Labour Force Survey: planned improvements and its reintroduction estimates methodology article which provides information on the actions being taken to improve sample sizes. In July 2026, ONS published an LFS data quality article to provide an update on the quality of the UK level estimates based on the latest calender quarter data (January to March 2026).

ONS conducted analysis to assess the impact of falling sample sizes over recent years on the quality of APS UK level estimates. ONS state that although the APS estimates are robust at National and headline regional level, which includes Scotland level estimates, there are concerns with the quality of estimates for smaller groups of the population, for example local authority level estimates. This assessment of the APS estimates alongside the fact that APS estimates have not been reweighted to new population estimates has led to the suspension of the accreditation of all APS-based outputs. Further details on this can be found in the exchange between ONS and the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR):

Michael Keoghan to Siobhan Tuohy-Smith: Request to suspend APS accreditation – Office for Statistics Regulation (statisticsauthority.gov.uk)

Due to the falling sample sizes in recent years, the increased uncertainty around the estimates included in this release can be assessed using the confidence intervals provided.

We will continue to be transparent with our users around the quality of the APS estimates used within our releases by providing guidance on the use and limitations of the data.

On 2 April 2025, we published the first phase of our Scottish Government’s Quality Assessment of the Office for National Statistics Labour Force Survey and Annual Population Survey data for Scotland which includes a detailed assessment of the APS estimates included in this release.

Based on the current data quality rules and data confidence ratings we considered as part of our quality assessment of the APS data, the estimates included in this release remain robust and are of high or moderate confidence unless otherwise stated.

High confidence indicates that the estimates can be used to draw accurate conclusions and there is substantial trust in the information presented, which is likely to provide a good reflection of reality.

Moderate confidence indicates that estimates are a suitable, but incomplete, measure of reality and conclusions can be drawn but limitations should be understood.

We will continue to assess the quality of APS estimates included within our publications and provide updates to our users.

ONS Labour Force Survey estimates

An ONS operational error occurred in May 2026, which led to temporary under-resourcing in LFS telephone collection operations with March to May 2026 estimates being subject to greater imputation. ONS analysis to date indicates that the error had a minimal impact on the headline UK estimates and further analysis will be undertaken. Further information is available in the ONS Labour Force Survey quality update article.