GDP Monthly Estimate: June 2026

In June the low level sectors with the largest positive contribution to three-month GDP growth was Retail, Wholesale & Motor Trade, Manufacturing, Transport & Storage and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, which contributed around 0.1 percentage points respectively towards overall growth. The largest negative contributor was Other Services, which contributed around -0.1 percentage points towards three-month GDP growth.

In the three months to June 2026, compared to the three months to March 2026, output in the Production sector is estimated to have grown by 0.9%, while the Services sector is estimated to have grown by 0.6%. Construction sector output grew by 0.3% in the three months to June.

Industry themes

As reported by the Office for National Statistics, there were some common themes that were anecdotally reported, across the UK, to have played a part in performance across different industries in June 2026, as part of the monthly business surveys.

The conflict in Iran, which started at the end of February, has been referred to by various businesses in terms of June 2026 data. These comments were cited in some manufacturing industries, wholesale, land transport services, warehousing and travel agencies. However, it should be noted that fewer comments to the survey referring to the Iran war were provided in June 2026 compared with previous months, which coincided with a period of ceasefire. This downward trend was also cited in our recent Business Insights and Conditions in Scotland. Of trading businesses, 6.7% reported global supply chain disruption in June 2026 and 47.3% of these cited the conflict in the Middle East as the cause.

The FIFA Football World Cup, which started on 11 June 2026, was cited as a reason for an increase in turnover in June 2026 by businesses in industries such as the manufacture of alcohol, wholesale, food and beverage serving activities, publishing activities, television production and advertising.

Figure 2:  Retail, Wholesale & Motor Trade contributed 0.1 percentage points towards the three-month GDP growth of 0.7%

Industry contribution to three-month GDP growth, June 2026