GDP Monthly Estimate: April 2025

The industries with the largest negative contribution to the overall contraction of 0.2% in April were Manufacturing and Accommodation & Food Services, which contributed -0.2 percentage points. These were offset by growth in Water & Waste, and Administrative and Support Services, each of which contributed 0.1 percentage points.

In April, Construction sector output grew by 0.9%. Output in the services sector is estimated to have contracted by 0.2%, while Production sector output contracted by 0.4% in April.

As reported by the Office for National Statistics there were some common themes that were anecdotally reported (as part of the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) for production and services) to have played a part in performance across different industries in April 2025. However it is difficult to quantify the exact impact.

Businesses from a range of industries provided comments citing the National Insurance Contribution changes on April 6 2025 and also, for those who export to United States of America, the possibility of tariff changes on exports. This is further supported by recent Business Insights and Conditions survey data. In late April, 17% of businesses with 10 or more employees reported that they expect to be affected by the United States tariffs in the next month. The most reported expected impacts were reduced demand and having to pass on additional costs to customers, both at 7%, as reported in the Business Insights and Conditions Survey: weighted Scotland estimates.

On a similar note, in late May 2025, over three-quarters (77%) of businesses with 10 or more employees reported that their staffing costs (including wages, bonuses, national insurance (NI) and pension contributions) had increased over the last three months. This is up 41 percentage points, compared with late February 2025, and up 17 percentage points compared with a year ago.