Minimum Income Guarantee: medium-term social security modelling

Background

Communities Analysis Division were commissioned by the independent Minimum Income Guarantee Expert Group to model a medium-term variant of a Minimum Income Guarantee (MIG) in which social security powers were fully devolved to Scotland. This is referred to as a ‘mid-MIG’ in this paper. The mid-MIG is modelled in the context of the current labour market, though an alternative estimate of costs is provided in a scenario where all workers are paid at least the real Living Wage. A time-limited version of the mid-MIG is also modelled.