Migration: supporting the future of Scotland's economy and communities

Ministerial Foreword

Scotland’s future economic wellbeing depends on the choices we make now and across this parliament, ensuring that more young people can join the workforce and contribute to our future success. However, the latest Scottish population statistics, when considered in tandem with the latest UK migration data, provide a clear message: that without action, Scotland’s population is expected to begin declining in the coming decades as deaths increasingly outnumber births, while the number of older people grows significantly and the number of younger people and working-age adults falls. The inward migration of working-age people and their families is the main way we are able to mitigate the impact of these changes, meaning that migration will play an increasingly important role in supporting our economy, public services and communities in the years ahead.

The data also shows that Scotland remains an attractive destination. In the year to mid-2025, Scotland continued to experience positive net migration, including a net inflow of people from the rest of the UK. This extends a long-standing trend, with more people moving to Scotland from elsewhere in the UK than leaving in every year over the past 25 years.

That enduring attractiveness is not accidental. It reflects Scotland’s strengths as a place to live, work, study and raise a family, and the actions taken within devolved responsibilities to support inclusive economic growth, strong public services and vibrant communities. The fact that Scotland continues to attract a net-positive number of people from the UK demonstrates the appeal of that approach. It also underlines a wider point made throughout this paper: people are choosing Scotland, but Scotland does not currently have the migration powers needed to capitalise on its attractiveness to a wider international audience.

The evidence suggests that, with an immigration system better aligned to Scotland’s demographic, economic and geographic circumstances, we can improve our confidence in maintaining a sustainable working age population. A migration system that supports population sustainability alongside economic growth, and which recognises the differing needs of communities across Scotland, would strengthen our ability to attract and retain the people needed to support businesses, public services and communities in every part of the country. However, the latest population projections and migration figures make clear that this opportunity cannot be taken for granted.

These challenges are not felt equally across Scotland, nor indeed across the UK. In some of our rural and island communities, demographic pressures are already acute. Population change affects far more than the labour market. It influences whether schools remain open, whether local businesses can grow, whether essential services can be sustained, and whether communities continue to thrive. As this paper makes clear, communities need people, not just skills.

That is why this publication marks a clear line in the sand. Scotland’s demographic realities demand renewed and meaningful engagement from the UK Government on the case for an immigration system which is aligned to Scotland’s needs. A migration system designed around UK-wide averages cannot adequately respond to Scotland’s distinct demographic and geographic circumstances. Indeed, none of the UK’s nations, or even regions, look like the average of the UK when it comes to migration, labour market conditions, or population change, because of the outsized impact that London has on those averages.

Recent changes to the immigration system have too often moved in the opposite direction to Scotland’s needs and values on migration. Higher salary thresholds, tighter restrictions on family migration, reduced opportunities for international graduates, and proposals that make settlement more difficult risk undermining Scotland’s ability to attract and retain the people our economy and communities require. These policy changes place too much emphasis on salary levels as a measure of contribution and fail to recognise the important social value of people working across a wide range of occupations and sectors across different parts of the country.

The Scottish Government continues to believe that migration policy should support sustainable population growth, economic opportunity and community resilience. This paper sets out practical proposals to help achieve that aim. Whether through greater flexibility within the current immigration system, the devolution of immigration powers to Scotland, or the opportunities that independence would provide, Scotland should have the ability to shape migration policy in a way that reflects its own demographic and economic needs.

The UK Government has spoken of the benefits that can come from devolving decision-making and enabling different parts of the UK to respond to their own circumstances. I hope this paper provides the foundation for renewed engagement on how a more tailored approach to migration can help Scotland support its communities and fulfil its ambitions for economic growth.

Tom Arthur MSP

Minister for Business and Fair Work