Temporary closures of schools and nurseries - statutory guidance update: island communities impact assessment

Step Four – Assessment

Previous island temporary closure cases in Shetland outer Island demonstrates that island communities often have no nearby alternative schooling or ELC provision, meaning that even when rolls fall very low, schools and nurseries frequently need to remain operational. In these cases, local authorities have highlighted that the nearest alternative school would require ferry dependent or multi leg travel, which is not comparable with most rural mainland settings where alternative provision is normally connected by road. This is reinforced by the Shetland Islands Council temporary closure procedure which note that schools on small population islands will only be considered for temporary closure when rolls fall to zero, due to the absence of reasonable alternative provision. Wider demographic evidence from the Scottish Islands Data Overview (2025) shows that several island regions have experienced significant population decline (e.g. Shetland - Outer Isles -7.6%, Arran, Bute & the Cumbraes -13.2% between 2002-2022), which could be contributing to smaller pupil rolls which can be more prevalent than in mainland rural areas. Transport and accessibility data from the Scottish Islands Survey (Table 4.3) further illustrates this distinction: while 61% of residents in Orkney Mainland & connected agree that essential services are easy to reach, only 20% of residents in the Shetland Outer Isles do so, reflecting substantially more constrained access to alternative provision. This means that Island Communities with schools or nurseries with very low rolls should often stay operational even if costs appear disproportionate, meaning thresholds for a set number of children attending a school should not necessarily dictate when temporary closure should be considered. Circumstances vary widely between island communities so it is important that local authorities have sufficient flexibility to make decisions appropriate to their particular island context.

Although no barriers or wider impacts have been identified, there should be continued flexibility in the criteria for consideration of temporary closure decisions. The aim is that very small island schools/nurseries should not be negatively affected compared to other communities. There should also be flexibility in the guidance on timescales for temporary closure of island schools/nurseries with the aim that provision remains when demand increases.