Temporary closures of schools and nurseries - statutory guidance update: island communities impact assessment

Step Two – Gather your data and identify your stakeholders

Previous temporary closure cases and engagement with island authorities indicates that island schools face distinctive contextual challenges, such as limited alternative provision, ferry or transport dependencies, and fluctuating local populations. Local authorities have also highlighted that, given the central role schools play in sustaining island communities, there is a strong preference to avoid permanent closure wherever possible.

Shetland Islands Council, for example, formalises this approach within its temporary closure procedure^[1]. These state that primary schools on small-population islands (Fair Isle, Foula, Papa Stour, Skerries and Fetlar) will only be considered for temporary closure when the school roll falls, or is projected to fall, to zero. In addition, where the majority of parents oppose temporary closure, the school should remain open, and reopening a mothballed school is actively considered when new families move to the island or when an existing child reaches school age^[2].

Such factors can collectively shape the context in which temporary closure is considered in island settings, in ways that differ from many mainland contexts, and are important in understanding how guidance on temporary closure must recognise island-specific circumstances.

Available evidence shows that these factors vary significantly across different island groups:

• Varying population decline rates.^[3] Available data shows that population change varies more sharply between island regions than in mainland Scotland. Across 2002-2022, island regions range from strong growth in Orkney - Mainland & connected (+16.7%) and the Highland Islands (+12.7%) to substantial decline in areas such as Arran, Bute & the Cumbraes (-13.2%) and the Shetland Outer Isles (-7.6%). In comparison, Mainland Scotland grew by 7.6% over the same period. Overall, the Scottish Islands show a much lower combined growth rate (+3.0%), indicating that several island communities are more exposed to long‑term population decline than mainland areas. These differences have implications for school viability and the frequency with which temporary closure may need to be considered. (Scottish Islands Data Overview 2025 Table 2.1/2.2).^[4]
• Ferry dependency^[5] and distance to nearest alternative school^[6].

• Although there is no national dataset that directly measures distance to the nearest alternative school, perception data on ease of accessing essential services by public transport provides a strong proxy for how reachable an alternative school is likely to be. This data shows very substantial variation between island groups. Mainland connected islands such as Orkney Mainland & connected (61% agree it is easy to access essential services) and Arran, Bute & the Cumbraes (63% agree) typically have shorter distances and continuous road links to alternative schools. In contrast, outer isles areas such as the Shetland Outer Isles (72% disagree) and Orkney Outer Islands (66% disagree) report the greatest difficulty, reflecting longer distances to the nearest alternative school and reliance on ferries or multileg journeys. These conditions increase the likelihood that pupils would face long daily travel or require hostel accommodation. (Table 4.3).^[4]