National Islands Plan 2026: island communities impact assessment

3. Data and Stakeholders

Population retention and attraction is the overarching objective of this new National Islands Plan.

This clear statement of intent received strong endorsement from communities, local authorities and public agencies during consultation. It communicates a clear vision, which the actions and investments set out in the following pages collectively support and aim to deliver. By putting population levels centre-stage, this Plan underscores the Scottish Government’s determination to proactively support the long-term sustainability and resilience of all our islands.

This Plan speaks to all who live on, or who may choose to move to, Scotland’s islands. It recognises that sustaining vibrant, confident and successful communities depends on the contributions of everyone. Older residents play a particularly important role – often on a voluntary basis – in promoting community development, delivering local services, and ensuring their island’s voice is heard.

In line with consultation feedback, this Plan places additional emphasis on young people and the economically active population, recognising their contribution as vital to achieving more balanced demographic profiles and securing the future sustainability of island communities, economies and public services.

There are encouraging trends to build on. The Scottish Islands Survey (2023) recorded an increase in the proportion of young participants (18-35 years old) intending to remain on their island – 79%, up from 71% in 2020. In addition, 41% of respondents had moved to their island having never lived there before, frequently citing quality of life and economic opportunity as the main reasons.

This Plan does not introduce national targets for population growth on our islands, nor does it set fixed milestones for future numbers in any specific island areas. It is for island communities, based on local circumstances, to set the pace of change.

Central to our approach is a commitment to ensuring that islanders can access the services and opportunities they need at every stage of life, making it easier for those who wish to stay. At the same time, we aim to make Scotland’s islands even more attractive places to live, work, and study for those considering a move or planning to return.

Published in February 2024, the Addressing Depopulation Action Plan (ADAP) sets out the Scottish Government’s strategic approach to supporting areas affected by population decline. It reflects the pressing demographic challenges facing many of our islands and commits to working closely with regional, local and community partners to deliver sustainable solutions. Like this Plan, the ADAP recognises the vital role of local leadership in responding to the distinct and varied demographic needs of communities.

Demographic Trends on Scotland’s Islands

The overall population of our islands has remained fairly stable over the last 20 years. This headline, however, masks significant variation both between and within island areas.

Data from Scotland’s Census 2022 show that the number of island residents stood at just under 103,000 – around 2% of Scotland’s population. This is slightly lower than the 103,700 recorded in 2011 but still higher than the 99,700 recorded in 2001.

Underneath the relative stability between the last two censuses lies a mixed picture. Na h-Eileanan Siar recorded the largest population decline of all Scottish council areas (-5.5%), while Orkney recorded a 3% increase compared with 2011. In Orkney, population growth was concentrated on the Orkney Mainland and connected islands, while the outer isles lost 5.2% of their residents . Even within the latter, however, differences were marked – for example, the population of Papa Westray saw a healthy increase between 2001 and 2022.

The case of Orkney illustrates the importance of localised approaches that are flexible and responsive to the specific needs of each island – one of the key principles of this Plan.

Our islands’ population profile is also getting older. In 2022, 26% of island residents were aged 65 or over, up from 21% in 2011 and significantly above mainland Scotland (20%). This has an inevitable impact on our islands’ economy: 28% of residents aged 16 and over are retired, compared to 23% across mainland Scotland. The proportion of retirees varies from 23% on Shetland Mainland to 37% in the Arran, Bute and Cumbraes region.

At the same time, the proportion of island residents aged under 16 has continued to fall, from 20% in 2001 and 17% in 2011 to 15% in 2022. Pupil numbers have also fallen in all island local authorities between 2001 and 2024, with both Argyll and Bute and Na h-Eileanan Siar recording a drop of just under 25%.

Looking ahead, population projections do highlight consistent trends, with loss of working age population anticipated to be disproportionately higher in the islands than many other parts of Scotland. All island local authorities are expected to either see a population decrease or growth below the Scottish average by mid-2032 , with the most concerning impacts forecast for areas already sparsely populated. This has significant implications for local economies and public services, risking further or faster depopulation.

Fertility rates in island local authorities are slightly higher than Scotland’s average. Nonetheless, the proportions of residents aged under 15 are projected to fall between mid-2022 to mid-2032, with changes ranging from -13% in Orkney to -21% in Na h-Eileanan Siar. Over the same period, the proportion of residents of a pensionable age is set to increase in all island authorities.

With deaths expected to outnumber births in all island local authorities, inward migration will remain a crucial means of sustaining populations. All island councils are projected to see more people moving in than leaving in the period up to 2032. This positive trend is mainly linked to migration from other countries in the UK.