GDP Quarterly National Accounts: 2025 Quarter 4 (October to December)

GDP growth in volume terms

Headline GDP figures

Scotland’s onshore GDP (i.e. excluding offshore oil and gas) is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in real terms during 2025 Quarter 4 (October to December). This is revised up from the first estimate of 0.1% published on 25 February 2026.

This release includes revisions to data from Quarter 1 (January to March) 2024 to Quarter 4 (October to December) 2025 because of updated and revised source data, including inputs taken from the equivalent UK quarterly national accounts. There have been small upward and downward revisions to quarterly GDP growth rates over this period, but little change to the overall trend.

In 2025 as a whole, Scotland’s annual GDP has grown by unrevised 1.4% in total in real terms, following unrevised growth of 1.1% in 2024.

Figure 1: Real GDP is estimated to have grown by an upwardly revised 0.2% in 2025 Quarter 4, following growth of 0.4% in the previous quarter
Percentage change, quarter on quarter growth rates, 2024 Q1 to 2025 Q4

We also produce estimates of GDP per head (or per capita) which divides Scotland’s GDP by the total population. This is often used as a proxy indicator for living standards. In this release, as well as revisions to the GDP statistics, there have also been updates to include the latest 2024 based mid-year population projections for Scotland.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have grown by 0.2% during 2025 Quarter 4, revised up from no growth in the first estimate. Annual real GDP per head is now estimated to have grown by 1.4% in 2025, which is revised up from an estimate of 1.3% in the first estimate publication.

Taken over the last 12 months, compared to the same quarter in 2024, Scotland’s GDP has growth by 1.3% in total, and by 1.3% per person. Meanwhile, in current prices (or nominal terms), without adjusting for inflation, the value of onshore GDP has increased by 4.0% compared to the same quarter a year ago.

The implied GDP deflator is the broadest estimate of inflation in the domestic economy and is calculated by dividing nominal GDP by real GDP. The GDP deflator covers the whole economy and not just consumer spending and also reflects the relative price of exports to imports. Compared to the same quarter a year ago, the implied GDP deflator has increased by 2.7%.

Output growth by industry groups

In 2025 Quarter 4, output in the production sector grew by 1.3%, revised down from 1.4% in the first estimate. Output grew in three of the four subsectors. The largest positive contribution was from the manufacturing sector, which grew by 1.5%. The largest negative contribution in production was seen in mining and quarrying, which fell by 1.7%.

Output in the services sector grew by 0.1%, unrevised from the first estimate. Output grew in eight of the fourteen subsectors. The largest positive contributions to growth were seen in administrative and support services, which grew by 1.6% in the quarter, and real estate activities, which grew by 0.4%. The largest negative contribution in services was seen in the information and communications subsector, which fell by 1.1%.

Construction sector output is estimated to have fallen by 2.0% in the latest quarter, revised up from a fall of 2.1% in the first estimate.

Figure 2: In 2025 Quarter 4, the largest positive contribution to growth came from the manufacturing sector, while the largest negative contribution came from the construction sector.  
Weighted contributions to the headline quarterly growth rate of 0.2% by industry section (SIC 2007)

The weighted industry contributions to percentage change relate to how much a particular industry adds to the overall output growth of Scotland within a time period. This accounts for the size of the industry, defined by it’s share of the total economy, as well its growth rate. The growth rate of an industry is the percentage change within a specific industry, within that time period.

The downloadable GDP in volume terms tables include more detailed breakdowns of the services and manufacturing sectors, as well as estimates of GDP per head and annual GDP growth back to 1963.

Estimates of GDP growth in volume terms based on the expenditure approach to GDP (consumption, government expenditure, investment and trade) are also available in the downloadable summary tables. These figures are currently designated as official statistics in development and are not processed with the same level of detail or quality assurance as the industry statistics. The expenditure components are principally published for use by analysts, for example as inputs to economic forecasts.

The Monthly GDP estimates give a more detailed indication of the trends for each industry sector, and include results up to February 2026 at the time of release.