GDP Quarterly National Accounts: 2025 Quarter 4 (October to December)

Key Points

• In 2025 Quarter 4 (October to December), Scotland’s onshore GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in real terms, revised up from the first estimate of 0.1% published on 25 February 2026.
• In 2025 as a whole, annual GDP is estimated to have grown by an unrevised 1.4% compared to 2024.
• In the latest quarter, output grew by 1.3% in the production sector, grew by 0.1% in the services sector, and fell by 2.0% in the construction sector.
• In the production sector, output grew in three of the four subsectors. The largest positive contribution to growth was seen in manufacturing, which grew by 1.5% overall. The largest negative contribution in production was seen in mining and quarrying, which fell by 1.7%.
• In the services sector there was growth in eight of the fourteen subsectors. The largest positive contributions to growth were seen in administrative and support services, which grew by 1.6% in the quarter, and real estate services which grew by 0.4%. The largest negative contribution in services was seen in the information and communication subsectors, which fell by 1.1%.
• Real GDP per head is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the latest quarter, and grew by 1.4% in annual terms in 2025.
• The household saving ratio, which represents the proportion of disposable income which is available for saving or paying off debt, is estimated at 8.5% in the latest quarter, down from 9.0% at the same point last year.
• This release includes revisions to data from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025 because of updated and revised source data, including inputs taken from the equivalent UK quarterly national accounts.  

Introduction

This publication includes updated estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) growth for Scotland in the latest quarter, along with a range of additional statistics which are regularly used for economic forecasting and modelling.

The latest statistics are based on annual benchmark levels and weights from the supply and use tables for 1998-2022. For these years, the output of industries and the supply and demand for goods and services across the economy are fully balanced and draw on the widest range of data sources. Estimates for quarters from 2023 onwards should be treated as more provisional, and are likely to be updated and revised over time. Revisions in GDP statistics are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy.

An Accredited Official Statistics Publication for Scotland

These statistics are accredited official statistics. The Office for Statistics Regulation has independently reviewed and accredited these statistics as complying with the standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Quarterly National Accounts Scotland was accredited in January 2014, as detailed in Assessment Report 272.

Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.

Scottish Government statistics are regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.