Scottish taxpayer comparison data: FOI release

Information requested

Any information held by the Scottish Government which explains how John Swinney’s below remarks are consistent with HMRC data published in this FOI response:
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/scottish_tax_payers#incoming-3077026.

At FMQs on 2nd October 2025, John Swinney said this:

“Over half of taxpayers in Scotland continue to pay less tax than if they lived elsewhere in the United Kingdom.”

Response

The First Minister’s use of lines stating “that over half of taxpayers in Scotland pay less than if they lived elsewhere in the UK” are based on analysis by the independent Scottish Fiscal Commission in their forecasts accompanying the Scottish Budget 2025- 26.

As part of its forecasts, for example in paragraph 69 of budget forecast 25-26, the SFC published an estimate of median earnings in Scotland in 2025-26, alongside a figure for the earnings level where a taxpayer in Scotland would switch from paying less Income Tax than in the rest of the UK, to paying more Income Tax than in the rest of the UK in 2025-26. From these figures, it can be inferred that more than half of Scottish taxpayers this year are expected to pay less Income Tax than they would in the rest of the UK.

To be clear, the information released by HMRC referenced in the question are forecasts, not outturn data. The latest SFC forecasts also show that median income is expected to be higher than was previously forecast in 2023-24 and 2024-25. It is inevitable that median income will sometimes be higher or lower than forecast at previous Budgets. At each Budget, the Scottish Government will continue to set the Starter and Basic rate bands at such a level that more than half of taxpayers are expected to pay less in the year ahead than they would elsewhere in the UK.

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