Evidence justifying remarks made about £1.5 billion extra from UK Government Budget: FOI release
- Published
- 20 January 2025
- Directorate
- Financial Management Directorate
- Topic
- Economy, Public sector
- FOI reference
- FOI/202400442207
- Date received
- 22 November 2024
- Date responded
- 18 December 2024
Information request and response under the Freedom of Information (Scotland) Act 2002.
Information requested
Speaking on 3rd November 2024 on the BBC Sunday Show about the impact of the UK Government’s budget on funding for the Scottish Government, the Minister for Public Finance, Ivan McKee, said this:
“There is £1.5 billion extra for this year, but there’s only £70 million of that is for capital spend, which creates some challenges.That’s still a significant reduction from where it was last year. On top of that, when you adjust for inflation, there’s another £800 million for next year. But most of that is to take the capital spend back to where it was last year. So there’s really only an extra £300 million next year on top of what we’ve secured from the UK Government this year.”
Please provide the evidence, with calculations and sources fully explained, justifying Ivan McKee’s remarks.
Response
The total Resource (RDEL) Block Grant funding received by the Scottish Government (SG) in 2024-25 is currently £39.8 billion. For 2025-26 the Spending Review confirms a resource block grant of £41.1 billion, £1.3 billion higher than 2024-25.
The table below shows the real terms calculations.
|
£bn's |
£bn's |
|
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
RDEL (excluding depreciation) |
39.8 |
41.1 |
|
|
|
GDP Deflator |
1 |
1.024 |
|
|
|
Real Terms Calculation |
39.8 |
40.1 |
|
|
|
Increase |
0 |
0.3 |
The GDP deflators used in the table above have been picked up from page 170 on the OBR report issued on 30 October; Economic and fiscal outlook – CP 1169 (obr.uk)
The table above sets out the basis of the calculation made on the day of the UK budget and was included in the Budget briefing that underpinned the Minister’s comments.
The GDP deflators used on Budget Day were subsequently superseded by the following ONS publication; GDP deflators at market prices, and money GDP October 2024 (Autumn Budget 2024) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
Using the updated ONS deflators provides a slightly different outcome, the calculation is below;
|
£bn's |
£bn's |
|
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
RDEL (excluding depreciation) |
39.8 |
41.1 |
|
|
|
GDP Deflator |
1 |
1.0239 |
|
|
|
Real Terms Calculation |
39.8 |
40.2 |
|
|
|
Increase |
0 |
0.4 |
We recently published our budget for 2025-26, which contains further analysis of the funding position, link here;
Please refer to Annex A.
In table A.02, under 2024-25 funding changes, additional Resource Barnett consequentials of £1,433m are presented. Likewise, in table A.03 under 2024-25 funding changes, additional Capital Barnett consequentials of £0.072m are presented.
£1,433m + £0.072m = £1,505m
Table A.05 provides real terms change in Core Block Grant from the UK Government
Within the table, it shows that in real terms, the current 2024-25 capital funding position is £401m less than it was in 2023-24. The table also shows that in real terms, the current 2025-26 capital funding position is the same as it was 2023-24.
Using information from tables A.02 and A.03, we can also arrive at the £800m number.
|
£bn's |
£bn's |
|
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
RDEL (excluding depreciation) |
39.8 |
41.1 |
CDEL |
5.8 |
6.4 |
CDEL FTs |
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
Total |
45.8 |
47.7 |
|
|
|
GDP Deflator |
1.000 |
1.024 |
|
|
|
Real Terms Calculation |
45.8 |
46.6 |
|
|
|
Increase |
0.0 |
0.8 |
The 2024-25 RDEL number is taken from table A.02, adding together the following items;
- Core Barnett Settlement
- Ringfenced funding
- Additional Barnett consequentials
- Social Security BGA change
- Machinery of government change.
The 2025-26 RDEL number is also taken from table A.02, against the ‘Core Barnett Settlement’ line.
The 2024-25 CDEL number is taken from table A.03, adding together the following items;
- Core Barnett Settlement
- Ringfenced funding
- City Deals
- Other
- Additional Barnett consequentials
- Additional Ring-fenced IFRS 16 Capital
- Additional City Deal Funding
The 2025-26 CDEL number is taken from table A.03, adding together the following items;
- Core Barnett Settlement
- City Deals
The CDEL financial transactions numbers are gathered from table A.04, with the 2024-25 and 2025-26 numbers both being gathered from the ‘Core Barnett Settlement’ line.
The GDP deflators used were published alongside the Autumn budget, link here; GDP deflators at market prices, and money GDP October 2024 (Autumn Budget 2024) - GOV.UK
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