Information on modelling on where COVID-19 infection rates are rising: FOI release

Information requested

For information on the Scottish Government's use of "a spatiotemporal postcode-district level model looking at proportion of covid-like symptoms in calls to NHS24 to determine where infection rates were rising in a 10-week rolling window".

1) The date that the results of the model were first presented to the Group?

2) When did results ceased to be presented to the Group ?

3) What decisions were influenced by the results from his model (ideally with dates). Did it play into the differential lockdowns in different areas of the country?

4) Since the conclusion of the national covid testing programme has there been discussion as to its reintroduction using the model to assess NHS24 triage data for the early warning of outbreaks prior to hospitalisation?

Response

While our aim is to provide information whenever possible, in this instance the Scottish Government does not have all of the information you have requested. The reasons why are explained below. This is a formal notice under section 17(1) of FOISA that the Scottish Government does not have all the information you have requested.

The questions you asked and our responses are as follows:

1) The date that the results of the model were first presented to the Group?
The documents held do not identify when the results of the model were first presented to the Group, but a record of a meeting on 29 June 2020 indicates that the data was being used at that time. That meeting record was the only document identified by searches of the documents we hold which made explicit reference to the data you refer to in your request.

2) When did results ceased to be presented to the Group ?
The documents held do not identify when the results of the model ceased to be presented to the Group, but see the reply to question 1.

3) What decisions were influenced by the results from his model (ideally with dates). Did it play into the differential lockdowns in different areas of the country?
The documents held do not identify whether any specific decisions were influenced by the results from the model, nor whether it "play[ed] into the differential lockdowns in different areas of the country".

4) Since the conclusion of the national covid testing programme has there been discussion as to its reintroduction using the model to assess NHS24 triage data for the early warning of outbreaks prior to hospitalisation?
The documents held do not include any discussion of "using the model to assess NHS24 triage data for the early warning of outbreaks prior to hospitalisation... since the conclusion of the national covid testing programme".

About FOI

The Scottish Government is committed to publishing all information released in response to Freedom of Information requests. View all FOI responses at http://www.gov.scot/foi-responses.