Fair Work Action Plan: indicator report 2025

Annex B: Update on the ONS Labour Force Survey and Annual Population Survey

The indicators contained within the Fair Work evidence plan draw primarily from official sources. In particular, the Annual Population Survey produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

ONS recently conducted analysis to assess the impact of falling sample sizes over recent years on the quality of Annual Population Survey estimates. ONS state that although the Annual Population Survey estimates are robust at National and headline regional level (which includes Scotland), there are concerns with the quality of estimates for smaller groups of the population e.g. minority ethnic groups^[19]. ONS are continuing to address the quality concerns by assessing the impact of the improvements made to the data collection and methodology on sample sizes and communicating how the data should be used. Alongside their monthly labour market statistics release in May 2025, ONS published an assessment of Labour Force Survey data quality.

Given the increased uncertainty in the Annual Population Survey estimates, the Chief Statistician for Scotland published a statement on the ONS Annual Population Survey in November 2024^[20]. This statement noted Scottish Government labour market analysts’ intention to conduct a detailed quality assessment of the ONS Annual Population Survey data used within their publications to ensure their outputs continue to provide the best value and quality data possible for users. In April 2024, phase one of the Scottish Government’s Quality Assessment of the Office for National Statistics Labour Force Survey and Annual Population Survey data for Scotland was published. Annex 5 of the report provides a detailed Quality Assessment of the results for the Fair Work Convention Fair Work Indicators. The Scottish Government continues to be committed to providing high quality labour market statistics and is exploring alternative sources for labour market statistics.

Going forward the most significant area of data development will arise from the ONS Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS). The TLFS is the ONS’s long-term solution for providing high-quality and granular estimates of changes in the labour market. The survey is moving to being ‘online-first’, which will enable the ONS to increase the sample size, improve response rates and improve representativeness.

ONS have successfully tested an experimental, shortened TLFS questionnaire and are continuing to undertake quantitative and qualitative research and methodological development. A new TLFS design will be implemented and will include a short longitudinal “Core” labour market-focused survey as well as a separate cross-sectional “Plus” survey to provide wider socioeconomic, household, and local data. Work is already under way to make the new TLFS design operational, and ONS are currently intending to transition to TLFS as the main source of headline labour market statistics by November 2026. However, ONS state that “transition timing will be data-led and could be 2027 if our assessment or user needs require more data to be collected and assessed.” The Scottish Government will require further information from ONS on the outcome of this work to fully explore and understand the impact the TLFS will have on Scottish labour market data. Further detail on recent developments around the TLFS is available in ONS’s recent Labour market transformation – update on progress and plans - Office for National Statistics – April 2025.