Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 30 April 2021

Published: 30 Apr 2021

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the coronavirus epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

15 page PDF

1.2 MB

15 page PDF

1.2 MB

Contents
Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 30 April 2021
Footnotes

15 page PDF

1.2 MB

Footnotes

1 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2 Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/?term=modelling&cat=filter&topics=Coronavirus%20in%20Scotland&publicationTypes=research-and-analysis&page=1

3 Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

4 Public Health Scotland Covid dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

5 Source: Public Health Scotland

6 Public Health Scotland dashboard: COVID-19 Daily Dashboard - PHS COVID-19 | Tableau Public

7 NRS Scotland: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/deaths-involving-coronavirus-covid-19-in-scotland

8 Office for National Statistics: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases

9 Office for National Statistics: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody and vaccination data for the UK - Office for National Statistics

10 The local estimates should be interpreted with caution as they are based on fewer models than previous reports.

11 Public Health Scotland: PHS COVID-19 Education report (shinyapps.io)

12 Results are taken from questions run on behalf of Scottish Government on the YouGov online omnibus survey. The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with c.1000 responses each week. Fieldwork took place on 27-28 April with a total sample size of 1,008 adults. ‘Complete’ or ‘almost complete’ compliance refers to respondents who rated themselves 6 or 7 on a scale of 1-7 for the question: Thinking about ALL of the guidance from the Scottish Government on what to do and what not to do during the Coronavirus pandemic (including distancing, protection measures and all restrictions)...On a scale of 1-7, where 1 is 'Not at all' and 7 is 'Completely', to what extent do you feel you are following the regulations and guidance?

13 Both scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions. The difference between

the two projections reflects uncertainty about behaviour and compliance as interventions are relaxed. Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP. ICU bed actuals include all ICU patients being treated for Covid-19 including those over 28 days.

14 Total sample size on 27-28 April was 1,008 adults. Sample size for those who have not yet received their first vaccine was 341 adults. ‘Likely’ to be vaccinated refers to respondents who rated themselves 8 to 10 on a scale of 0-10 for the question: How likely or unlikely are you to be vaccinated for COVID-19 when a vaccine becomes available to you? (Please select a number between 0 and 10, where 0 means 'extremely unlikely' and 10 means 'extremely likely')

15 Public Health Scotland: https://beta.isdscotland.org/find-publications-and-data/population-health/covid-19/covid-19-statistical-report/9-september-2020/dashboard/

16 Investigation of novel SARS-CoV-2 variant - Variant of Concern 202012/01 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

17 S1095_NERVTAG_update_note_on_B.1.1.7_severity_20210211.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

18 Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

19 Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variants (publishing.service.gov.uk)

20 Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.351 - 27 January 2021 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

21 Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern P.1 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

22 Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)


Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot