Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 08 October 2021

Published: 8 Oct 2021

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 08 October 2021
Footnotes

Footnotes

1. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

3. Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

4. Due to technical issues data was not available on 16 September and figures provided on 17, 18 and 19 September are not directly comparable to other dates, therefore, users should exercise caution when making week on week comparisons between the period 17-23 September and 24 -30 September. For more information see https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

5. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report

6. Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

7. Source: Public Health Scotland

8. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

9. Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

10. Public Health Scotland dashboard: COVID-19 Daily Dashboard - PHS COVID-19 | Tableau Public Please note that the hospital admissions data may be lower than expected due to system upgrades in NHS Boards. Upgrades are due to be completed this week.

11. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report Data for acute hospital admissions are incomplete from
30 September 2021.

12. ibid

13. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 Statistical Report

14. ICU or combined ICU/HDU (with length of stay 28 days or less)

15. NRS Scotland: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/deaths-involving-coronavirus-covid-19-in-scotland

16. ibid

17. Public Health Scotland COVID19 statistical report

18. ibid

19. Office for National Statistics: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases

20. Office for National Statistics: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody and vaccination data, UK - Office for National Statistics

21. Office for National Statistics: Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

22. UK Government: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

23. ibid

24. Public Health Scotland Covid dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

25. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

26. Public Health Scotland: PHS COVID-19 Education report (shinyapps.io)

27. Public Health Scotland

28. Office for National Statistics: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody and vaccination data, UK - Office for National Statistics

29. Results are taken from questions run on behalf of Scottish Government on the YouGov online omnibus survey. The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with c. 1000 responses each week. Fieldwork took place on 5-6 October with a total sample size of 1044 adults. 'Complete' or 'almost complete' compliance refers to respondents who rated themselves 6 or 7 on a scale of 1-7 for the question:Thinking about ALL of the guidance on what to do and what not to do during the Coronavirus pandemic (including distancing, protection measures and all restrictions).On a scale of 1-7, where 1 is 'Not at all' and 7 is 'Completely', to what extent do you feel you are following the regulations and guidance?

30. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

31. The difference between the scenarios: Worse' assumes a rise in transmission similar to that seen in June and August. 'Central' assumes that infections will plateau at the current level. 'Better' assumes that infections will continue to fall. Worse scenario has been included this week in response to the increase of Covid-19 in wastewater (a rise of appx 17%). All scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions.

32. Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

33. ibid

34. Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

35. Source: YouGov online survey. Total sample size on 5-6 October was 1044 adults. Sample size for those who have not yet received their first vaccine was 41 adults. 'Likely' to be vaccinated refers to respondents who rated themselves 8 to 10 on a scale of 0-10 for the question: How likely or unlikely are you to be vaccinated for COVID-19 when a vaccine becomes available to you? (Please select a number between 0 and 10, where 0 means 'extremely unlikely' and 10 means 'extremely likely')

36. S1236_Eighty-nineth_SAGE.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

37. Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: VOC-21APR-02 (B.1.617.2) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

38. S1284_SAGE_92_minutes.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

39. Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

40. Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variants (publishing.service.gov.uk)

41. Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.351 - 27 January 2021 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

42. Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern P.1 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

43. Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

44. New studies — Nuffield Department of Medicine (ox.ac.uk)

45. COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 34 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

46. SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Scotland: demographics, risk of hospital admission, and vaccine effectiveness - The Lancet

47. VEEP: Vaccine effectiveness table, 27 August 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

48. JCVI statement, September 2021: COVID-19 booster vaccine programme for winter 2021 to 2022 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)


Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot