Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 46)
Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.
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Footnotes
1. Under 60s to begin receiving vaccination invitations - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
2. COVID-19 Daily Dashboard - PHS COVID-19 | Tableau Public
3. Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
4. Four week projections are included here.
5. Both scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions. The difference between the two projections reflects uncertainty about behaviour and compliance as interventions are relaxed.
6. The actual positive tests are adjusted to coincide with the estimated day of infection.
7. Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP. ICU bed actuals include all ICU patients being treated for Covid-19 including those over 28 days.
8. Four week projections are provided here.
10. PHS defines a confirmed COVID-19 death as an individual who dies within 28 days of their first positive COVID-19 laboratory report.
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