Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 42)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement

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1. Who is being offered the coronavirus vaccine in Scotland | The coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine (

2. COVID-19 Daily Dashboard - PHS COVID-19 | Tableau Public

3. COVID-19 Daily Dashboard - PHS COVID-19 | Tableau Public

4. Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - (

5. Both scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions. The difference between the two projections reflects uncertainty about behaviour and compliance as interventions are relaxed.

6. The actual positive tests are adjusted to coincide with the estimated day of infection.

7. Hospital bed actuals only include hospital stays up to 28 days duration linked to Covid-19.

8. Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP. ICU bed actuals include all ICU patients being treated for Covid-19 including those over 28 days.

9. A four week projection is provided here.

10. Optimising the COVID-19 vaccination programme for maximum short-term impact - GOV.UK (

11. PHS defines a confirmed COVID-19 death as an individual who dies within 28 days of their first positive COVID-19 laboratory report.



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