Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.108)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

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Technical Annex

What levels of Covid-19 are indicated by wastewater data?

Table 1 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised wastewater Covid-19 levels in the weeks ending 2nd and 9th September 2022, with no estimate for error. This is given in Million gene copies per person per day. Coverage is given as percentage of inhabitants in each local authority covered by a wastewater Covid‑19 sampling site delivering data during this period.

Table 1. Average Covid-19 wastewater levels (Mgc/p/d) [3].

Local Authority (LA)

w/e 2nd September

w/e 9th September

Coverage

Aberdeen City

73

23

99 %

Aberdeenshire

58

52

44 %

Angus

73

26

68 %

Argyll and Bute

30

5

23 %

City of Edinburgh

124

60

98 %

Clackmannanshire

84

22

92 %

Dumfries and Galloway

23

32

39 %

Dundee City

90

38

100 %

East Ayrshire

77

59

72 %

East Dunbartonshire

82

57

99 %

East Lothian

100

50

74 %

East Renfrewshire

107

14

95 %

Falkirk

54

70

96 %

Fife

41

34

84 %

Glasgow City

75

45

98 %

Highland

60

62

27 %

Inverclyde

36

36

98 %

Midlothian

120

64

88 %

Moray

66

30

70 %

Na h-Eileanan Siar

31

17

21 %

North Ayrshire

57

34

92 %

North Lanarkshire

72

138

95 %

Orkney Islands

62

34 %

Perth and Kinross

113

26

45 %

Renfrewshire

55

45

97 %

Scottish Borders

37

51

58 %

Shetland Islands

43

29 %

South Ayrshire

67

59

88 %

South Lanarkshire

58

62

90 %

Stirling

71

23

63 %

West Dunbartonshire

41

29

98 %

West Lothian

100

38

95 %

Contact

Email: sgcentralanalysisdivision@gov.scot

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