Publication - Advice and guidance

Coronavirus (COVID-19): framework for decision making - further information

Sets out further information about the challenges Scotland faces and provides illustrative examples of the steps that might form part of initial changes to the current lockdown restrictions, when it is safe to do so.

27 page PDF

1.0 MB

27 page PDF

1.0 MB

Contents
Coronavirus (COVID-19): framework for decision making - further information
Footnotes

27 page PDF

1.0 MB

Footnotes

1. https://www.gov.scot/collections/coronavirus-covid-19-guidance/

2. This figure is all deaths where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. As of 5th May the number of patients who have tested positive who have died is 1620.

3. https://www.gov.scot/publications/trends-in-number-of-people-in-hospital-with-confirmed-or-suspected-covid-19/

4. Weekly ratios for new cases and new deaths are ratios of weekly sums, plotted on a log 10 scale. Day-of-the-week ratios for hospital occupancy and ICU occupancy are ratios of daily counts, measured 7 days apart and plotted on a log 10 scale. Figure insets highlight more recent ratios and trends.

5. Figure 5 is the result of an SIR model. The range of infectious people along the left of the chart (from 10,000 to 35,000), is based on the outputs of the publicly available Imperial College Covid-19 model. Susceptible population is total population minus those that are infectious and have recovered by that point. This, along with the different Rt values along the top of the chart (from 0.5 to 1.5) are applied to forecast the number of infected people. Breach of NHS capacity is based on an approximation that 5% of infected people will require hospitalisation, and that they will need to enter hospital a week after first becoming infected.

6. The epidemiological progression in the Scottish Government model is simulated using the publicly available Imperial College Covid-19 model. The model uses publicly available time series data of daily cases and deaths for Scotland and a range of other countries. This allows us to track infectious people in the population, cases, deaths and the reproduction rate R. We then estimate the impacts of interventions applied in other nations, such as opening nurseries and primary schools, and apply similar responses for Scotland.


Contact

Email: CovidExitStrategy@gov.scot