Heat networks - thermal energy target 2035: consultation

Proposed Target

25. Option 2 is our preferred approach as it is the most feasible, yet ambitious, scenario and outlook for the 2035 target.

26. We, therefore, propose to set the following target: the combined supply of thermal energy by heat networks in Scotland reaches at least 7 TWh of output by 2035.

27. Table 3 below shows the modelled number of domestic and non-domestic connections for the four scenarios to meet at least 7 TWh.

Table 3 notes

• Number of connections rounded to nearest hundred.
• Scenario D fails to achieve required demand. Figure in brackets for Scenario D is the proposed target.

28. The sensitivity test using Non-Domestic Analytics data and Typical Domestic Consumption Values (TDCVs) - which doesn't take anchor loads into account – suggested that around 112,200 non-domestic and 135,000 domestic properties would need to connect to achieve the proposed target of at least 7 TWh.

29. Additionally, further analysis of the FNA data based on Option 3 was carried out to establish a figure should there be a higher percentage of domestic connections than 50% - used to develop the potential target figure options. Adjusting the number of domestic connections needed increases the heat network output by only a fraction of a percentage using the same dataset. Given that the FNA data is essentially modelled data and sensitivity testing has shown a wide variance in the number of properties that would need to connect to meet this TWh figure, we are proposing that the target is set at, at least 7 TWh.

In summary, we propose:

To set the following target, where the combined supply of thermal energy supplied by heat networks in Scotland reaches at least 7 TWh of output by 2035.

We will review the 2035 heat network target and, if appropriate, other heat network targets once more evidence is available, such as LHEES and heat network zones designated by local authorities.