BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 137

United States Tariffs

In the period 21 July to 3 August 2025 business that had not permanently stopped trading were asked what impact, if any, United States tariff changes had on their business in the last month. US tariffs impacted an estimated 10.4% of businesses in the last month. Businesses were also asked about expected impacts next month.

Figure 5: 10.8% of businesses expected to be impacted by US tariffs in the next month. The Manufacturing sector had the highest share expecting to be impacted in the next month (27.3%), followed by the Information & Communication sector (24.2%).

Estimated share of businesses expecting some impact due to United States tariffs in next month. Businesses not permanently stopped trading with 10+ employees and a presence in Scotland. Wave 137.

Source: BICS Weighted Scotland Estimates - Wave 137 from the Scottish Government.  For Figure 5 data see table ‘USTariffsImpactExpected’.

Currently trading businesses that had exported goods in the last 12 months were both more likely to have been impacted by US tariffs in the last month and to expect to be impacted next month. An estimated 29.7% of goods exporters were impacted by tariffs last month, compared to 10.4% of all businesses. An estimated 32.6% of goods exporters expected some impact next month, compared to 10.8% of all businesses.