BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 131

United States Tariffs

In Wave 131 (22 April to 4 May 2025) business that had not permanently stopped trading were asked what impact, if any, United States tariff changes had on their business in the last month. Businesses were also asked about expected impacts next month.

US Tariffs Impact Question Response Options:

• business experienced additional costs
• business explored new export markets
• business passed additional costs to customers
• business stopped or paused exports to the United States
• increased competition
• increased demand
• reduced demand
• supply chain disruption
• other
• not sure
• no impact on the business

US tariffs impacted an estimated 7.7% of businesses in the last month. The most commonly reported impacts were that the business experienced additional costs (3.7%) and reduced demand (2.4%).

Looking ahead, 15.9% of businesses expected to be impacted by US tariffs in the next month. The most commonly reported expected impacts were that the business will have to pass on additional costs to customers (6.8%) and reduced demand (5.6%).

Figure 5: 15.9% of businesses expected to be impacted by US tariffs in the next month. The Manufacturing sector had the highest share expecting to be impacted in the next month (28.7%).

Estimated share of businesses expecting some impact due to United States tariffs in next month. Businesses not permanently stopped trading with 10+ employees and a presence in Scotland. Wave 131.

Source: BICS Weighted Scotland Estimates - Wave 131 from the Scottish Government.  For Figure 5 data see table ‘USTariffsImpactExpected’.

Currently trading businesses that had exported in the last 12 months were both more likely to have been impacted by US tariffs in the last month and to expect to be impacted next month. An estimated 16.1% of exporters were impacted by tariffs last month, compared to 7.7% of all businesses. An estimated 28.6% of exporters expected some impact next month, compared to 15.9% of all businesses.

More data on the impact of US tariffs on exporting businesses can be found in the ‘USImpact_Exporters’ and ‘USImpactExpected_Exporters’ tables in the BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 131- tables – time series Excel workbook in the ‘Supporting documents’ section.