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Paper 20th October 2005 - TTSAC(05)7

TTSAC(05)7 - OTHER RECENT AND FORTHCOMING DEVELOPMENTS IN SE TRANSPORT STATISTICS

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1. Introduction

1.1 The purpose of this paper is to inform members of the Committee about recent and forthcoming developments in statistics about some aspects of transport in Scotland, apart from (a) the development of the Scottish Household Survey and (b) statistics which are the responsibility of the Department for Transport (DfT), which are covered in other papers. Because the Committee has been set up as part of the Scottish Executive (SE) National Statistics consultation arrangements, this paper covers mainly the work of the SE Transport Statistics branch, as this is the body whose activities are likely to be influenced most by the Committee's advice. However, other branches within SE and other organisations also have statistics about transport in Scotland, and their representatives at the meeting may wish to mention developments in their areas.

1.2 If you require any further information about any of the points covered in this paper, you are invited to contact:

Frank Dixon

direct line: 0131 244 7254

e-mail: frank.dixon@scotland.gsi.gov.uk.

Or, if they prefer, members of the Committee are welcome to raise at the meeting any points which they feel are likely to be of interest to others.

1.3 Members of the Committee should receive a copy of each of the branch's publications within a few days of it being published. Please contact the Secretary if you did not receive a copy of any of the publications mentioned in Section 2.

2. Developments since the previous T&TSAC meeting (29th November 2004 - NB: these notes mainly cover SE Transport Statistics branch developments)

2.1 The changes to the GB-wide "Stats 19" road accident statistics specification that had been recommended in the Quality Review took effect at the start of January 2005.

2.2 Transport Indicators for Scotland - following the discussions at the previous Committee meeting, some changes were made to the draft indicators. However, as stated in the e-mail to members sent on 3 February 2005, the then Minister for Transport decided that the indicators should not be published as they then stood: instead, a successor set of indicators should be developed which would have a direct relationship to the forthcoming National Transport Strategy and other policy statements.

2.3 We published an updated version of the Key Transport Statistics card in February 2005, after DfT published the "bus and coach" figures for 2003-04 and some other figures.

2.4 We made available, on the SE Web site, updated versions of some of the tables from Scottish Transport Statistics, in cases where a further year's data became available several months before the next edition was to be published (e.g. we made available updated versions of some Scottish Transport Statistics tables that included DfT's bus and coach figures for 2003-04).

2.5 Each quarter, we provided figures for the SHS quarterly releases, and further SHS results in short articles for the Scottish Transport Review.

2.6 Bus and Coach Statistics 2003-04 was published in March 2005. It included some new tables on reasons given by car commuters for not using public transport, the single main reason given by people who used buses at most once a week for not using buses more often, and the percentages of the adult population who have a concessionary fare pass. In addition, the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) was added to six of the tables.

2.7 Scottish Household Survey Travel Diary results for 2003 was published in March 2005. It included new tables on whether part of a driver's trip was delayed by congestion and, if so, by how much; whether a bus or rail journey was delayed; whether a car driver paid for parking at the end of the trip and, if so, the type of parking, the amount paid and the time parked; different types of shopping journeys; and the journey purposes of car drivers at different times of the day. In addition, some tables were improved, for example by including analysis using SIMD.

2.8 Contractors led by Napier University Transport Research Institute prepared an SHS Topic Report on "Accessibility and Transport", and MVA produced one on "Mode Choice". The aim of such reports is to provide "in depth" analysis of particular topics, focusing on the results which are relevant to particular policy issues, and looking at the SHS's results in the context of information available from other sources. Both should be published in October 2005. Another Topic Report, on "Long-Distance Commuters", should be commissioned soon.

2.9 The branch was affected by vacancies throughout the Spring and Summer. Scott Brand left on 1st March and his successor, Ben McClory, did not join the branch until 23rd September. A temporary clerical assistant, Alan Stubbs, was employed to "fill some of the gap" from mid-April until Ben arrived. Paula McClements left on 29 June, and Stephen Hinchliffe left on 11th August. They both worked part-time. Their successor is a full-time Assistant Statistician, Mairi MacAskill (a new entrant to SE) who joined us on 26th September. These vacancies "cost" the branch several "person-months" work, which had various effects: for example, some publications will appear later than scheduled; we could not make as many improvements as we would have liked; and some other possible developments could not take place.

2.10 Key 2004 Road Accident Statistics was published in June 2005. Following consultation with LGRAS, the latest five years' averages and the numbers in 2010 implied by the casualty reduction targets were added to three tables.

2.11 Scottish Transport Statistics no. 24 / 2005 edition was published in August 2004. Further improvements were made, in the light of comments and suggestions from members of the Committee and other users of the publication. It had an extra 22 pages, including an index and nine new tables on a range of topics (e.g. rail passenger journeys within Scotland by the local authority areas of the origin and destination stations, trends in passenger numbers at new/re-opened stations, hours travelled per person per year, and trips per person per year by main mode and number of cars available to the household). Some other tables were expanded to provide more information (e.g. the International Comparisons tables were expanded to include the new EC countries).

2.12 Our computing colleagues continued to develop our new road accident statistics computer system. As well as handling the Contributory Factors, and other new data collected from the start of 2005, the new system should link better with GIS facilities, and hence with certain types of geographically-based information, such as the Index of Multiple Deprivation and the urban/rural classification. Unfortunately, progress on this has been slow, due to vacancies in the computer unit.

2.13 We contributed to the DfT-led Quality Review of the Road Traffic Statistics.

2.14 External contractors continued to develop, for "ports policy" colleagues, the draft Guide to Scottish Ports and an accompanying database of information on Scottish ports. These draw on the maritime statistics data collected for DfT, and information from other sources, including an ad-hoc survey of Scottish ports.

2.15 The SE Traffic Controller produces the trunk road congestion indices. The various data analyses for the calculation of the indices for 2004 are nearing completion, with the challenge of how to compare 2004 with 2003 indices looming, in particular dealing with the incomplete nature of the 2003 data. It is anticipated that a report on the 2004 indices will be completed within the next two months. Enhancements to the methodology are being considered which, if implemented, will allow additional uses of the indices, including monitoring the spread of peak periods with respect to congestion. A parallel exercise was carried out recently, comparing traffic flows to link capacity, and the results were in general agreement with the congestion indices for the routes concerned.

2.16 The Transport Model for Scotland (TMfS) is now available for use by Local Authorities and other strategic bodies in Scotland. The support documentation and release DVD are available to allow potential users access to the model. TMfS has superseded the Central Scotland Transport Model (CSTM3) by enhancing it and extending it to include Aberdeen and the north east of Scotland. It also incorporates up-dated planning data from the 2001 census, Scottish Household Survey and various other sources of data including input from all Scottish Local Planning Authorities. The planning data is contained within the Transport/ Economic/ Land-use Model of Scotland (TELMoS) which is a specific interaction module within TMfS. The model has been used for a number of strategic studies including the Tolled Bridges Review and will shortly be providing information for the National Transport Strategy and the Strategic Projects Review. Further information can be obtained from the TMfS website www.tmfs.org.uk .

2.17 The Scottish Executive has a substantial annual transport research programme. Transport research reports that have been published since October 2004 are listed in Annex A. These can be accessed through the following link:

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Research/Research/17692/SocialResearchPubs/TransportAndPlanning .

2.18 The 2005-06 Transport Research Programme was published in May 2005. Commissioning of projects in the programme is progressing. A link to the programme is:

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Research/topic/tranres05-06/page1 .

3. Forthcoming developments (again, mainly SE Transport Statistics branch matters - covering the period until October 2006)

3.1 This section describes the branch's current plans, which are, of course, subject to revision in the light of developments and the advice of the Committee.

3.2 Transport Indicators for Scotland: we will assist policy colleagues to develop these, or whatever other "measuring and monitoring" documents the Executive decides to produce, in the light of comments from members of the Committee and others - see paper T&TSAC(05) 2.

3.3 We hope to publish Household Transport in 2004: some Scottish Household Survey results in December 2005, but it may not appear until January 2006. It has been delayed by the effect of staff vacancies. The main improvement is likely to be the addition of separate "time-series" tables: now that results are available for six years, it is better to show the trends in separate tables from the more detailed analyses of the data for the latest year.

3.4 We expect to publish Road Accidents Scotland 2004 in January 2006. This has been delayed by the effects of staff vacancies and the limited progress on developing the new road accident statistics computer system (see earlier). For these reasons, we do not expect to make any significant improvements this year. We will also make available on the Web updated versions of the extra road accident statistics tables.

3.5 We hope to publish Transport across Scotland in 2003 and 2004: some SHS results for parts of Scotland in January 2006. Again, it has been delayed by the effect of staff vacancies. Again, some expansion of the tables will be required now that we can provide figures for local authority areas for the survey's first three two-year sweeps (1999/2000, 2001/2002 and 2003/2004), and thus show clearly any trends in the figures for those areas.

3.6 We will publish at least one updated version of Key Transport Statistics before the next edition of Scottish Transport Statistics - perhaps in December 2005, after DfT has published, during the Autumn, various figures for 2004 or for 2004-05.

3.7 We will also make available, on the SE Web site, updated versions of some of the tables from Scottish Transport Statistics, in cases where a further year's data become available several months before the next edition is published.

3.8 Bus and Coach Statistics 2004-2005 should be published in March 2006. The main improvement is likely to be the addition of several tables providing details of concessionary travel pass possession and use by different sub-groups of the populations, based upon the results of SHS questions about the possession of a pass and the journeys which the interviewee made.

3.9 Scottish Household Survey Travel Diary results: 2004 edition should be published in March 2006. At present, no major improvements are envisaged.

3.10 Following the success of the first Scottish Transport Applications and Research (STAR) Conference earlier this year, a second conference STAR 06 is scheduled for 19 April 2006 at the Glasgow Royal Concert Hall. Call for papers will be made from mid-October to mid-November.

3.11 With our computing colleagues, we will complete the testing of the new road accidents computer system.

3.12 LGRAS will meet no later than May 2006, to discuss (e.g.) points arising from the implementation of the "Stats 19" changes in January 2005, and possible further improvements to Road Accidents Scotland.

3.13 Key 2005 Road Accident Statistics should be published in June 2006.

3.14 Scottish Transport Statistics no. 25 / 2006 edition should be published in August 2006. Improvements will be made, in the light of the advice of the Committee and comments from other users of the publication - see paper T&TSAC(05) 3.

3.15 We will also provide further SHS Transport-related results in short articles for the quarterly Scottish Transport Review. From Autumn 2006, we will publish the first year's results of the new questions on Transport, which were added to the survey at the start of 2005.

ANNEX A : RECENT TRANSPORT RESEARCH REPORTS

Research reports published since October 2004 are listed below. They are available from the Scottish Executive Social Research website http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Research/Research/17692/SocialResearchPubs/TransportAndPlanning

Integrated Ticketing in Scotland - Needs Analysis and Options (DD Research Findings 2004 No 195)

The Scottish Executive commissioned TNS Social Research, TRL and TRi at Napier University to conduct research to inform the development of integrated ticketing in Scotland. The methods adopted were wide-ranging, including a literature review, a telephone survey of stakeholders, case studies of existing integrated ticketing schemes, a review of legal and policy barriers to establishing new schemes, a Household Survey of Scottish adults to explore their views on different types of tickets, and statistical modelling to predict the potential take-up for integrated ticketing in different areas of Scotland. The research provided an overview of the level of need and demand for future integrated ticketing schemes in Scotland and advice to inform the development of successful schemes.

Review of the Rural Petrol Stations Grant Scheme (DD Research Findings 2004 No 186)

The Scottish Executive commissioned Steer Davies Gleave to review the Rural Petrol Stations Grant Scheme that has been in place since 1998 with the objective "to support the retention of a sustainable and accessible network of fuel supply in rural Scotland". The study evaluated the funding mechanism of the grant and evaluated the benefits that arise from it. Options for future changes to the scheme were identified and appraised, and from these, recommendations made which were used to introduce an expansion of the scheme from October 2004.

Anti-social Behaviour on Buses (DD Research Findings 2005 No 196)

The Scottish Executive commissioned George Street Research to investigate the extent and impact of anti-social behaviour on Scottish buses. The research comprised a literature review, a household survey, qualitative and quantitative surveys among bus company staff and bus drivers and qualitative discussions among key stakeholders. ASB on buses has been experienced by 70% of bus users and is perceived to be increasing in terms of both its frequency and seriousness. Rudeness, drunken behaviour, dumping litter and smoking cigarettes were most frequently experienced by passengers. ASB was experienced most frequently by bus drivers between 9pm and 12pm. There was a higher incidence of ASB on buses in socially deprived urban areas. ASB on buses could be reduced through improved reporting of ASB, improved training for bus drivers, increased partnership working and the use of educational, physical and preventative strategies.

Motorcycle Accidents and Casualties in Scotland 1992 -2002 (DD Research Findings 2004 No 194)

The Scottish Executive and the Scottish Road Safety Campaign commissioned TRL Ltd. to undertake research into motorcycle accidents in Scotland. The research provided a quantitative and qualitative analysis of motorcycle accidents between 1992 and 2002 in order to highlight trends and identify measures that could be taken to reduce the number and severity of motorcycle accidents in Scotland. The research showed that although the number of motorcycle accidents is increasing, the casualty rate per million kilometres and per 1,000 licensed bikes is not increasing. Motorcycle accidents occurring on non-built up roads are more likely to be the fault of the biker whereas motorcycle accidents occurring in built up areas tend to be the fault of the motorist.

Parental Attitudes to Road Safety Education (DD Research Findings 2004 No 190)

In August 2003 the Scottish Executive commissioned ODS Ltd. and Market Research UK to carry out research into parental attitudes to road safety education ( RSE) in Scotland. The impetus for this research arose out of previous studies that have demonstrated the central role that parents play in the road safety education of their children. Research has also found that the ability of parents to develop road safety education varies widely and depends on a range of factors and influences. The research found that parents perceive themselves as having the main responsibility to develop road safety awareness and skills in their children. Most parents modify there behaviour when accompanied by their children to act as role models and there is a need to establish better linkages between schools and parents in relation to road safety education.

Evaluation of the 2003/ 2004 Festive Drink Drive Campaign (DD Research Findings 2003 No 191)

The Scottish Executive and the Scottish Road Safety Campaign commissioned mruk to evaluate the 2003 drink drive festive campaign and the broader 'Don't risk it' drink drive campaign. The research comprised a survey of 1,000 households and a series of focus groups and in-depth interviews. Fieldwork was carried out between February and April 2004. The research showed that the concept of the 'risk' and possible consequences of drinking and driving was perceived to be an appropriate and relevant sentiment. However there are two significant challenges for future campaign development. Firstly, there is a widespread lack of acceptance of current thresholds and the amount of alcohol which will impact upon an individuals ability to drive competently. Secondly there were clear indications that many respondents consider it unlikely that they will be caught if they drink and drive. This stems from a lack of visible evidence of enforcement.

Road Safety - By Accident or Design? ( SRSC 2004)

The Scottish Executive, Scottish Road Safety Campaign and Communities Scotland commissioned research to produce guidance on developing an inter-agency approach to road safety in regeneration areas. The research comprised a desk top review of road safety activity in Scotland's regeneration areas, a review of case studies in Europe and four detailed case studies of specific road safety initiatives within Scotland.

Research carried out for the Scottish Executive has highlighted the higher incidence rate of child road accidents in deprived or disadvantaged areas of Scotland. Across Scotland agencies and communities are working together to regenerate disadvantaged areas, tackling issues such as unemployment, social exclusion, community cohesiveness and community safety. It is not always realised how the improvement of road safety can make an immense contribution to tackling these issues, in addition to reducing the occurrence of road accidents. Where this has been realised research has shown that activities to improve road safety are most successful when an inter-agency approach is adopted.

Rural Road Safety: A Literature Review (DD Research Findings 2005 No 203)

The Scottish Executive and the Scottish Road Safety Campaign commissioned TRL Limited to undertake a review of published literature covering road safety on rural roads. The resulting review focussed on UK research but also highlighted some interesting international research. Key findings from the literature review show that young drivers and motorcyclists are disproportionately involved in accidents on Scottish rural roads. Driver behaviour factors such as speed and speeding; alcohol and drug use; driver fatigue and sleepiness; and driver distraction are a key issue in rural road accidents. Other factors identified as contributing to rural road accidents are: wild animals (especially deer); darkness; and tourist activity. Emergency service response times in remote areas can affect the outcome of serious accidents. Education and publicity campaigns rarely focus on rural road safety. Driver training tends to focus on basic control skills. There is evidence to suggest that attitude rather than skill is related to crash involvement.

Extent and Severity of Cycle Accident Casualties (DD Research Findings 2003 No 204)

The Scottish Executive commissioned Carole Millar Research to investigate the extent and severity of cycling accidents both on- and off- road. Cyclists who reported to one of five Accident and Emergency Departments across Lothian and Borders Health Board were asked to complete a questionnaire relating to their accident. In total, completed forms were received from 806 casualties aged five or over who had been injured as a result of a pedal cycle accident between 1 st September 2003 and 31 st August 2004. This data was compared with the STATS 19 accident data collected by the police for the same area. The research showed that a large proportion of cycling accidents occur off road. Adults are more likely to wear cycling helmets that children and STATS 19 data under-reports on-road cycling accidents and fails to report off-road cycling accidents.

Improving Road Safety Education for Children with Additional Support Needs (DD Research Findings 2003 No 205)

The Scottish Executive and the Scottish Road Safety Campaign commissioned ODS to investigate the travel patterns and road safety requirements of children with Additional Support Needs. The study focused predominantly on the needs of children with mild to moderate learning difficulties, including autistic spectrum disorders and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder. Key findings show that the travel patterns of children with learning difficulties are often more restricted than those without. Children with mild to moderate learning difficulties are more likely to display behaviours which make road use more dangerous. Schools generally adapt mainstream resources to suit individual learning needs, and stressed the need for assistance in adapting resources. Parents tended to focus on practical roadside education, identified the need for appropriate resources for use with their children and desired better linkages with schools.

Bus Passenger Satisfaction 2004 (DD Research Findings 2005 No 201)

Colin Buchanan were commissioned by the Scottish Executive to carry out a series of telephone interview surveys aimed at assessing bus passenger satisfaction with local bus services throughout Scotland. The surveys, which are carried out on an annual basis, seek to monitor changes in satisfaction which are to be used to inform decision making and policy development. This research finding reports results from the November 2004 survey and compares them with the previous surveys undertaken in November 2002 and 2003.

Public Perceptions of Travel Awareness - Phase 3 (DD Research Findings 2005 No 202)

In Spring 2001, the Scottish Executive commissioned a national baseline survey of public awareness of travel initiatives and issues in Scotland. A follow up survey was also carried out in Winter 2002/3 (Phase 2) with Phase 3 in Autumn 2004. This report details the findings from Phase 3 and provides comparisons with the previous surveys where notable. The research was conducted by TNS Social Research, in collaboration with Professor Steve Stradling of Napier University and Dr Jillian Anable of the Centre for Transport Policy at the Robert Gordon University.

Evaluation of the School Travel Co-ordinators Initiative (DD Research Findings 2005 No 208)

Derek Halden Consultancy were commissioned to provide an assessment of the impact of the School Travel Co-ordinator (STC) Initiative, which was launched in 2003. Key findings include that the STC Initiative has increased resources for activities that are generally under-resourced by local authorities across Scotland including publicity, joint working with schools and communities and integration of activities across disciplines and between transport functions. Successful areas of delivery and effective ways of working were identified. Recommendations on the support and management of STCs are made.