Prison statistics and population projections Scotland: 2011-12
This publication shows data up to 2011-12 on Scottish prison population levels and characteristics, receptions to/liberations from Scottish prisons, and international comparisons. This year it includes prison population projections to 2020-21 which were previously published separately, as well as additional background information and analyses.
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Annex B Historic trends in recorded crime and victimisation in Scotland: impact on the prison population
77. The total number of crimes and offences recorded by the police has been decreasing since 2004-05, with the number of crimes dropping steadily since the early 90s (Chart B.1). Crime and victimisation surveys provide a fuller picture of offending, and a similar pattern of falling incidence of crime can be seen in the past three sweeps of the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (Chart B.2).
Chart B.1 Recorded crime in Scotland: 1970 to 2011-12
Source: Scottish Government Recorded Crime in Scotland 2011-12
Chart B.2 Estimated incidence of crime: 1992 to 2010-11
Source: Scottish Government 2010-11 Scottish Crime and Justice Survey
Note: Years refer to data collection period. Confidence intervals (95%) shown from 2005-06 onward.
78. The fall in both recorded crime and levels of victimisation have been strongly driven by decreasing levels of property crimes, in part due to improvements in home/car security, increased affordability of consumer goods, and easier access to credit. On the other hand, the number of charges proven shows sustained increases in the number of cases involving crimes such as handling weapons and drug-related crime over the past 20 years, coupled with a shorter term increase between 2000-01 and 2007-08 in lower level offences such as common assault and breach of the peace (Chart B.3).
Chart B.3 Charges proven (Scotland): 1989-90 to 2010-11
Source: Scottish Government criminal proceedings dataset
79. At the same time, the proportion of convicted offenders getting custodial sentences has increased: in 1989-90, 7 per cent of convicted offenders got a custodial sentence, rising to 13 per cent in 2010-11. This has particularly been the case for certain offence types such as crimes of violence and indecency, crimes of dishonesty and other crimes, including drugs related crimes, handling weapons and crimes against public justice (bail offences, contempt of court, perjury). The number of custodial sentences for lower level 'incivilities' type offences, such as common assault and breach of the peace, has also risen, particularly over the past 10 years (Chart B.4).
Chart B.4 Charges proven resulting in a custodial sentence (%): 1989-90 to 2010-11
Source: Scottish Government criminal proceedings dataset
80. There is some indication of sentence lengths drifting upward over the years, most strikingly for crimes of indecency. Sentence lengths for violent crime have also shown a degree of upward fluctuation, as have other lower level crimes, although this trend is not as marked (Chart B.5).
Chart B.5 Average sentence length (days): 1989-90 to 2010-11
Source: Scottish Government criminal proceedings dataset
81. It is therefore a combination of more punitive sentencing for certain crimes along with an increasing emphasis on lower level crimes and offences over the past two decades which has contributed to the pattern of prison receptions seen in Chart B.6 and led to an increased prison population, particularly for medium-term sentences as described in Section 4.
Chart B.6 Direct sentenced receptions by main crime/offence:
1999-00 to 2011-12
Source: Scottish Government prisons dataset
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