Housing statistics quarterly update: September 2020

Trends in new build housing starts and completions by sector, and the Affordable Housing Supply Programme.


4. Social Sector New Housebuilding

Social sector housing consists of local authority and housing association housing, and has accounted for just over a quarter (26%) of all new build homes completed over the 12 months to end December 2019. 

Social sector figures are collected a quarter ahead of those for the private sector meaning that figures are available up to the end of March 2020. However to enable easier understanding of how each sector contributes to the all sector totals described previously, some figures are also presented to end December 2019. 

Chart 7a shows the number of local authority and housing association homes started and completed each year (to end December) since 2007, whilst Chart 7b shows the same information but up to end March 2020 (the most recent information available). Charts 8 and 9 show quarterly figures for housing associations and local authorities, respectively.

Chart 7a: Annual Housing Association approvals and completions have been at higher levels than Local Authority starts and completions in each year since 2007, with some varying trends across this period (years to end December)
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Chart 7b: Housing Association and Local Authority new build approvals and completions figures for years to end March show a broadly similar trend to the figures for year to end December
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Chart 8: Quarterly Housing Association new build approvals show some quarterly volatility, with Q1 (Jan to Mar) typically seeing the highest numbers in each year.
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Chart 9: Quarterly Local Authority new build starts and completions also show some quarterly volatility, but with less clear annual seasonality patterns
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Figures for the year to end December 2019

There were 1,469 social sector completions between October and December 2019; 53% more than the same quarter in 2018. This brings the total for the year to end December 2019 to 5,909, an increase of 18% on the 4,998 social sector completions in the previous year.

Meanwhile, 1,853 social sector homes were started between October and December 2019; 11% more than the same quarter in 2018. This brings the total for the year to end December 2019 to 7,011. This is a 1% increase on the 6,950 social sector starts in the previous year.

Table 3 – Social sector new housebuilding to December 2019

 

Total Social starts Total Social completions Local authority starts Local authority completions Housing association approvals Housing association completions
Oct to Dec-18 1,667 961 434 233 1,233 728
Oct to Dec-19 1,853 1,469 528 341 1,325 1,128
Change +186 +508 +94 +108 +92 +400
Change (%) +11% +53% +22% +46% +7% +55%
Year to Dec-18 6,950 4,998 1,613 1,229 5,337 3,769
Year to Dec-19 7,011 5,909 2,058 1,604 4,953 4,305
Change +61 +911 +445 +375 -384 +536
Change (%) +1% +18% +28% +31% -7% +14%

Trends since 2007

Social sector house building has not followed the same pattern as the private sector over time as the number of homes being built did not suddenly drop in 2008 following the recession. 

Between 2007 and 2009 (years to end December) the number of housing association completions increased from just over 4,000 to just over 5,800. Completions then decreased each year, to just under 2,400 in 2014, before increasing to just over 2,900 in 2015. Completions then dropped to just over 2,400 in 2017 before increasing each year to just over 4,300 in 2019.

The number of housing association approvals fell from just over 6,500 in 2009 to just over 2,200 homes in 2011 (years to end December). The figures have since increased over time, particularly since 2015 to just over 5,300 in 2018 but decreased to just over 4,950 in 2019.

The number of local authority homes built has gradually increased from just 28 homes in 2007 up to just over 1,200 in 2013 (years to end December). Completions were then broadly flat until 2017, but have since increased to just over 1,600 in 2019. 

Sub-national local authority figures for the year to end December 2019

Maps C and D show the rates of housing association and local authority new build completions in each local authority for the year to end December 2019 per 10,000 of the population (based on the latest mid-2019 population estimates). The housing stock of 6 local authorities (Argyll & Bute, Dumfries & Galloway, Glasgow, Inverclyde, Na h-Eileanan Siar and Scottish Borders) has been transferred to housing associations and so these areas do not build new local authority houses.

In the year to end December 2019 rates of housing association new build completions were highest in Clackmannanshire, The Scottish Borders, Perth & Kinross, West Dunbartonshire and Glasgow City, whilst the lowest rates of housing association new build were in East Renfrewshire, Falkirk, North Ayrshire and Orkney Islands.

Meanwhile local authority new build rates were highest in Highland, Moray, North Ayrshire, East Ayrshire and West Lothian. As well as the 6 stock transfer authorities mentioned above, Angus, Clackmannanshire, Dundee City, East Dunbartonshire, Orkney Islands, Shetland Islands and West Dunbartonshire built no new local authority homes in the year ending December 2019.

Map C: New Build housing - Local Authority Sector completions: rates per 10,000 population, year to end December 2019
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Map D: New build housing - Housing Association Sector completions: rates per 10,000 population, year to end December 2019
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Latest figures to end March 2020

It should be noted that the amount of new housebuilding activity recorded in the quarter January to March 2020 will have been impacted by the introduction of government advice and measures to reduce the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) from mid-March onwards, in which non-essential construction activity stopped, and home buyers were advised to delay moving to a new home where possible.

A total of 1,925 social sector homes were completed between January and March 2020, 11% less than the 2,165 completions in the same quarter in 2018. This brings the total completions for the 12 months to end March 2020 to 5,669 a 4% increase on the 5,477 social sector homes completed in the previous year. 

Meanwhile, 3,874 social sector homes were started between January and March 2020. This is up 44% compared to the same quarter in the previous year. This brings the total for the 12 months to end March 2020 to 8,191 which is a 31% increase (1,918 homes) on the 6,273 starts in the previous year. 

Table 4 – Social sector new housebuilding to March 2020

Total Social starts Total Social completions Local authority starts Local authority completions Housing association approvals Housing association completions
Jan to Mar-18 2,694 2,165 518 425 2,176 1,740
Jan to Mar-19 3,874 1,925 576 286 3,298 1,639
Change +1,180 -240 +58 -139 +1,122 -101
Change (%) +44% -11% +11% -33% +52% -6%
Year to Mar-18 6,273 5,477 1,833 1,392 4,440 4,085
Year to Mar-19 8,191 5,669 2,116 1,465 6,075 4,204
Change +1,918 +192 +283 +73 +1,635 +119
Change (%) +31% +4% +15% +5% +37% +3%

Contact

Email: housingstatistics@gov.scot

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