Economic impacts for Scottish and UK seafood industries post-Brexit: report

Appendix H: Zonal Attachment Calculations

Changes to production in the scenarios were based on a redistribution of quotas between the EU and the UK, moving from quota allocation based on Relative Stability and to one based on the zonal attachment ( ZA) principle.

Zonal attachment estimates for individual species, from the University of Aberdeen & SFF (2017) report, were used to calculate the potential additional catch for UK vessels, above their current (baseline) level of reported landings. The availability of zonal attachment information for the ten species is shown in Table H.1.

For each species (comprising several stocks), the new landings level (N), was calculated as:

N = L + M

Where:

L = current level of landings for a species (2011-2015 annual average, tonnes, from FAO production database)

M = extra landings as a result of zonal attachment redistribution of quotas for the species

M was calculated as:

Where:

k = stock

ZUK = UK quota allocation based on zonal attachment

YUK = (current) UK landings

And Z _UK was calculated as:

Where:

A = zonal attachment percentage for UK waters

QEU28 = Quota for EU-28 (i.e. UK quota + rest of EU quota)

So, the full equation would be:

Table H.1. Availability of zonal attachment information for key species

The change in production value as a result of the distribution of quotas according to the zonal attachment principle was calculated as follows:

• UK landings under ZA were calculated by applying the ZA average percentage from University of Aberdeen & SFF (2017) for North Sea and West of Scotland stocks to the TAC for each stock (taken from the TACs and Quotas Regulation) for 2015. Exceptions to this were:
  • For mackerel, the ZA percentage was applied to the overall TAC from the management plan agreed by the EU, Norway and the Faroes (1,054,000 t).
  • For herring in the North Sea, ZA percentages were provided separately for the adult and juvenile portions of the stock. Based on herring reaching maturity at age 3, and most herring in the North Sea being under 7 years old, the adult ZA percentage was pro-rated 4/7 (reach maturity @ age 3, most under 7 yr old); and the juvenile ZA pro-rated 3/7 (year classes 0, 1, 2).
  • For hake, the lower 95% quantile estimate was used instead of the average, because the Aberdeen University & SFF (2017) study probably overestimates the zonal attachment of this species because it is based on survey data from Area VI (which predominantly lies in UK waters) but the stock distribution covers a much wider area.
  • For Nephrops, ZA was based on the ICES stock advice for each Functional Unit ( FU), together with an estimate of the proportion of each FU in UK waters.
• Distribution of quota from Area VII was assumed not to change, as no ZA estimates were available for Area VII stocks (i.e. cod, haddock, saithe, herring), with the following exceptions:
  • Hake, for which the stock management unit incorporates Areas VI, VII, Union and international waters of Vb, international waters of XII and XIV ^[32] , and the ZA percentage was applied to the whole stock management area;
  • Nephrops, for which the calculation was based on Functional Units (see above).
• The potential additional landings for the UK under ZA were calculated from the ZA estimate compared to the actual level of 2015 UK landings (taken from quota uptake spreadsheets from Marine Scotland/ MMO).
• It was assumed that there was no change in landings of Nephrops from North Sea and West of Scotland, because uptake of quota in these areas in 2015 was low (45% and 85% of initial quota allocation, respectively). The increase in Nephrops landings modelled was based on an increase in quota for Area VII grounds (an additional 1,244 tonnes). This is comparable with the potential increase in UK quota from the Zonal Attachment principle, compared to the UK’s initial quota allocation (an additional 1,471 tonnes). ^[33]
• The change in UK landings was assumed to result in an inverse change in EU landings, except for haddock, where the decrease in EU landings was limited to the absolute level of increase of UK quota.
• The change in the value of production was calculated based on the change in landings and the average value of production per tonne of live weight landings. Average value of production per tonne of live weight landings was calculated for the UK and EU, and applied to the change in landings expected from ZA. Using these average values of production incorporates the existing pattern of processing of each species in each country (group).

Detail of the change in landings as a result of using zonal attachment to determine the distribution of quotas is provided in Table H.2.

Table H.2. Calculations for change in landings based on zonal attachment distribution of quotas