Coronavirus (COVID-19): Scotland's route map - supporting evidence for moving to Phase 3
This publication provides an assessment of the evidence which informed the decision to move to Phase 3 of Scotland's route map.
This document is part of a collection
WHO criterion 1: Evidence shows that COVID-19 transmission is controlled
R is consistently low
Number of infectious cases is showing a sustained decline
The Route Map sets out in a summary form what we would expect to see in order to move to Phase 3 based on the R value and the number of infectious people declining. WHO criterion 1 requires evidence that COVID-19 transmission is controlled. Given the overlap we have grouped reporting on these three criteria.
The R value for COVID-19 in Scotland is estimated by SAGE to be between 0.6 and 0.8. Scottish Government analysis, using the Imperial College modelling code, is in agreement with this assessment, and suggests it has been below the critical threshold of 1.0 since 23 March.
Scottish Government epidemiological modelling also estimates that around 80 new infections occurred in Scotland on 3 July - a greater than 99% decline from the peak of 21,500 on 23 March. Daily new cases need to be seen in the context of numbers of people in Scotland who are infectious. This is the crucial number as these are the people who can transmit infection to others. Many of those who are infectious (approximately 80%) will have few symptoms and may not realise they are infected but are potential transmitters of the virus. SG modelling estimates the most likely number of infectious people in Scotland on 3 July to be 1,000 (within a range of between 600 and 1700 people who could transmit the infection on to others). This is the fourteenth week in a row there has been a decline in this number.
Further modelled information, including short - and medium term forecasts of hospital bed and intensive care requirements, along with the R-value set out above and infectious cases data will be published in a weekly update every Thursday. It takes time for the virus to take its course, therefore we will not fully see the effect of Phase 2 changes in our modelling until mid-July.
Supplementary Measures
Confirmed COVID-19 cases in Scotland by day
The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases by specimen date has shown a sustained decline since peaking in late April 2020, based on the seven day moving average. This is in the context of increased testing and expanded eligibility.
This is data published daily on the Public Health Scotland COVID-19 data dashboard and now includes confirmed cases where people have been tested through the UK Government (UKG) testing programme as well as those through NHS Scotland labs.
Source: Public Health Scotland
Hospital admissions by day where COVID-19 is confirmed
The number of hospital admissions per day for those with a positive COVID-19 result has also shown a sustained decline since 7 April 2020, based on the 7 day moving average. In the latest week, to 2 July, an average of one patient was admitted to hospital each day with confirmed COVID-19.
Source: Public Health Scotland
Note: analysis of COVID-19 admissions cross-references ECOSS lab data with hospital admission records from acute hospitals. Only confirmed COVID-19 cases recorded on ECOSS have been included in the hospital admissions figure.
ICU admissions by day of admission to Unit for those where COVID-19 is confirmed
The number of new daily ICU admissions has shown a sustained decline since 4 April based on the seven day moving average. In the week to 5 July, two patients were admitted to ICU where COVID-19 was confirmed before discharge.
Source: Public Health Scotland
Deaths by week of registration Scotland to 5 July 2020
There has been a sustained decline in the number of weekly deaths among confirmed and probable cases. The number of deaths peaked in Week 17 (20 April to 26 April 2020). Total number of deaths is now in line with the 5 year average. The next update will be on Wednesday 15 July.
Source: National Records of Scotland
https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/covid19stats
Test results for those who have symptoms in community % by week
The proportion of those have a positive test for COVID-19 out of those who are symptomatic of the virus in community healthcare has seen a steadily decreasing trend since week 16 (13 to 19 April). This data runs up to Sunday 5th July. The weekly swab positivity reached 0.0% for the first time in Week 27 (week ending 5 July), and has been 1.0% or lower for 6 weeks.
Source: Enhanced Surveillance data, Public Health Scotland
Note: Confidence intervals wide in the pilot phase of weeks 16 and 17 due to small numbers
Contact
Email: covidexitstrategy@gov.scot
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