Published on 15th July 2015, the latest Supply, Use, Input-Output Tables and Multipliers for Scotland relate to 1998 to 2012. These tables are the first Scottish Tables that are consistent with the European System of Accounts 2010 (ESA2010) and are available in the downloads section of this site. Where possible the tables are also consistent with UK Blue Book 2014 based Supply and Use Tables and Regional Accounts estimates.
Official Statistics Status
At the request of the Chief Statistician, the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) has re-designated the Scottish Input-Output Tables from National Statistics to Official Statistics. This brings us in line with the UK Input-Output Table re-designation detailed in UKSA Assessment Report 300. The report determined that the UK Tables should not carry the National Statistics designation, primarily because a key data source (the Purchase Inquiry) needs to be brought up to date. Our reliance on the same data led us to request that our Tables should also be re-designated. The correspondence between the Chief Statistician and the UK Statistics Authority is published on the UKSA correspondence pages.
Official statistics are produced by professionally independent statistical staff – more information on the standards of official statistics in Scotland can be accessed here.
Input-Output Classifications (IOC)
We have replaced the Input-Output Classification number system with Standard Industrial Classification (SIC2007) based numbering. This is similar to the system used for the UK Input-Output Tables. Instead of the simple 1 through 98 numbering of the old IOC system, each Input-Output product / industry group is now numbered to reflect their SIC2007 codes. This change was made as a result of user feedback and there have been no changes to the coverage of the IOCs themselves; this is purely a label change.
The new IOC to 5 digit SIC2007 lookup table is available here.
European System of Accounts 2010 (ESA 2010)
An overview of changes to national accounts at the UK level due to adopting the 2010 revision of the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010) is available from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) website here.
The main changes are summarised below, with links to articles by the ONS giving further details of the changes.
Research and Development
Expenditure on research and development is now treated as Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) instead of intermediate consumption, leading to an increase in GDP.
For the production measure of GDP, output of the market sector remains the same, while intermediate consumption is decreased by the value of bought-in and own-account R&D. Output of the non-market sector is valued on a sum-of-costs basis, so output is reduced by excluding the value of the capitalised R&D, but with an offsetting increase from including the consumption of fixed capital in R&D assets.
One exception to these rules is for the R&D industry itself; its purchases of R&D are treated as intermediate consumption.
For the expenditure measure of GDP, GFCF is increased by the total supply of the R&D product, less R&D purchased by the R&D industry. Final consumption expenditure by the non-market sectors changes by the same amount as the non-market output changes for these sectors.
For the income measure of GDP, Gross Operating Surplus is increased by the same amount as Gross Fixed Capital formation in the market sector, and by the capital consumption of R&D assets in the non-market sector.
For more detail on this change, see the ONS Implementation Framework for Research and Development in the United Kingdom National Accounts.
Capitalisation of military hardware
Expenditure on weapons systems which qualify as assets is now included in gross fixed capital formation rather than intermediate consumption and government final consumption. This affects the Weapons and Ammunition, Ships and Boats, and Aircraft and Spacecraft products. Additionally, changes in military inventories are now included in the inventories column for the weapons and ammunition product. Each of these changes lead to an increase in GDP.
Further detail on this change is available here.
ESA 2010 introduces changes to the treatment of funded defined benefit pension schemes. Firstly, there is a revised methodology for calculating service charges for these schemes, which affects the output of the pensions industry.
Secondly, contributions to these schemes are now valued on an actuarial basis. Previously, only employers’ actual contributions to these schemes were recorded; under the new methodology, employers’ contributions are imputed to include the difference between the value of actual contributions and the actuarial value of the pension accrued. These contributions form a part of Compensation of Employees (CoE) and lead to mutually offsetting changes to CoE and GOS in the market sector. In the non-market sector, CoE changes, and non-market output and non-market final consumption change by the same amount.
For more detail on the treatment of pensions under ESA 2010, see this article on the ONS website.
ESA 2010 removes the value threshold above which small tools are classed as capital formation rather than intermediate consumption (500 euros in 1995 prices). In practice, items such as “[Expenditure on] inexpensive tools used for common operations ,such as saws, spades, knives, axes, hammers, screwdrivers, wrenches and other hand tools; small devices such as pocket calculators … is recorded as intermediate consumption.” This change decreases intermediate consumption and increases GFCF and GOS, leading to an increase in GDP.
Changes to the measurement of trade
Several changes have been made to the treatment of trade in ESA 2010 and Balance of Payments Manual 6 (BPM6). These changes are all GDP neutral and affect:
- Goods Sent Abroad for Processing
- Merchanted Goods
- Remote Gambling
ONS have produced an article describing the effects of these changes available from their website here.
Note that Goods Sent Abroad for Processing and Merchanted Goods changes have only been implemented for Rest of World trade in the Scottish tables as data to implement the changes for trade between Scotland and the Rest of the UK are not available.
Non-ESA 2010 changes
Outside of the ESA 2010 changes, the UK has also made a number of changes to methods and data to improve international comparability of its Gross National Income (GNI) and wider national accounts statistics, which have led to changes in Scottish estimates. Detail of the changes at the UK level are available here. An outline of the main changes is provided below.
Own Account Construction (GNI)
Own Account Construction, previously valued on a sum of costs basis, now also includes a mark-up representing the cost of capital.
Improvements to UK data sources
An ONS review to ensure exhaustiveness of GDP estimates has led to improvements to UK data sources and methodology relating to several products:
- Satellite & digital TV
These improvements have the indirect effect of improving Scottish estimates.
Household expenditure on new cars
Estimates of household spending on new cars now captures discounts and the value of optional extras.
Inclusion of illegal drug and prostitution activities
ESA 1995 states that illegal activities fall within the production boundary of national accounts. In order to improve international comparability, UK National Accounts now include estimates for prostitution and the production of illegal drugs. Scottish estimates of these activities based on a population share have been included in the Scottish Supply-Use tables. Details of the methodology used for the production of UK estimates of prostitution and illegal drug activity may be found here.
UK Regional Accounts constraining
As with previous tables, the GVA figures are broadly equivalent to the raw SIC(2007) section level Regional Accounts figures published by the Office for National Statistics, the latest available being published in December 2014. Please note that due to the combining of SIC(2007) 19 'Coke and petroleum' with SIC(2007) 20.14, 20.16 and 20.17 'Petrochemicals' within the Scottish Input-Output Classification system, the Regional Accounts sub-manufacturing category CD 'Coke and refined petroleum products' and CE 'Chemicals and chemical products' must be combined before constraining.
The final Supply and Use table estimates are based upon triangulation of ONS Regional Gross Value Added (income approach) and the full range of data sources available to the Supply Use system; Scottish National Accounts Project, quarterly GDP(O) systems and, after extensive data cleaning, the Annual Business Survey data. These other sources include data received directly from companies and other organisations. The table below highlights where Scottish Use Tables differ from the UK Blue Book 2014 consistent Regional Accounts.
Further information about the move away from full consistency with UK Regional Accounts for Scotland can be seen below under "Publication of Input-Output Tables and Multipliers for Scotland 1998-2007".
Difference between ONS Regional Accounts raw GVA estimates and published Scottish Use table values Published SUT estimate minus Regional Accounts raw estimates (£m)
note - only showing Regional Accounts categories where changes have been made
|Regional Accounts Category ||1998 ||1999 ||2000 ||2001 ||2002 ||2003 ||2004 ||2005 |
|A: Agriculture, forestry and fishing || || || || || || || ||117 |
|B: Mining and quarrying ||-66 ||63 ||-282 ||-332 ||-401 ||-561 ||-322 ||-257 |
|CA: Manufacture of food etc ||-205 ||-155 ||-50 || || || || || |
|CDE: Manufacture of petroleum and chemicals etc || || || || || || || || |
|CH: Manufacture of basic metals and products || || || || || || || || |
|CI: Manufacture of computer, electronics etc ||-300 ||-50 || || || || || || |
|CL: Manufacture of transport equipment || || || || || || || || |
|D: Electricity, gas etc ||-419 ||-77 ||-110 ||-103 ||-90 ||-95 ||-92 ||-94 |
|E: Water supply; sewerage, waste etc ||-74 ||-57 ||-92 ||-104 ||-77 ||-130 ||-112 ||-104 |
|J: Information and communication ||-67 ||-55 ||-63 ||-181 ||-370 ||-485 ||-394 || |
|M: Professional, scientific and technical activities || || || || || || || || |
|N: Administrative and support service activities || || || || || || || || |
|P: Education || || || || || || || || |
|R: Arts, entertainment and recreation ||157 ||167 || || || ||-205 || || |
|S: Other service activities || || || || || || || || |
|Regional Accounts GVA ||66,506 ||66,071 ||69,725 ||74,280 ||77,939 ||82,859 ||88,036 ||92,868 |
|Scottish Use Table GVA ||65,532 ||65,906 ||69,129 ||73,560 ||77,002 ||81,388 ||87,118 ||92,528 |
| || || || || || || || || |
|Regional Accounts Category ||2006 ||2007 ||2008 ||2009 ||2010 ||2011 ||2012 || |
|A: Agriculture, forestry and fishing ||92 ||142 ||87 ||112 ||71 ||297 ||171 || |
|B: Mining and quarrying ||-171 ||-274 ||-436 ||-401 ||-331 ||-504 ||-754 || |
|CA: Manufacture of food etc || ||244 ||194 ||68 ||301 ||591 ||193 || |
|CDE: Manufacture of petroleum and chemicals etc || || || || || ||331 ||102 || |
|CH: Manufacture of basic metals and products || || ||106 || ||172 ||126 || || |
|CI: Manufacture of computer, electronics etc || || || || || || || || |
|CL: Manufacture of transport equipment || || || ||158 ||73 ||-60 ||126 || |
|D: Electricity, gas etc ||-105 ||-212 ||295 ||96 ||309 ||364 ||50 || |
|E: Water supply; sewerage, waste etc ||-104 ||-125 ||-213 ||-195 ||-126 ||-103 || || |
|J: Information and communication || || || ||-100 ||138 ||169 || || |
|M: Professional, scientific and technical activities || || || || || ||-200 ||150 || |
|N: Administrative and support service activities || || || ||-290 || || || || |
|P: Education || || || || || || ||300 || |
|R: Arts, entertainment and recreation ||-180 || || ||-265 || || || || |
|S: Other service activities || || || || || || ||-212 || |
|Regional Accounts GVA ||99,549 ||103,024 ||108,128 ||108,659 ||108,344 ||111,533 ||113,820 || |
|Scottish Use Table GVA ||99,083 ||102,803 ||108,164 ||107,842 ||108,950 ||112,546 ||113,944 || |
A: Agriculture, forestry and fishing
The fall in GVA seen in Regional Accounts (RA) data from 2005 onwards is not seen in Scottish Government Agriculture Output, Input and Income Statistics. Following advice from Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services and the UK Department for Environment Food & Rural Affairs the Supply and Use Tables are constrained to the Scottish Government data.
B: Mining and quarrying
It looks as though Regional Accounts allocate some elements of onshore GVA using ABS data that includes extraction. Since nearly all offshore activity is classed as 'extra-regio' within the UK National Accounts this overestimates the Scottish share. Re-estimated using onshore estimates.
CA: Manufacture of food etc.
The Annual Business Survey (ABS) and other data sources suggest stronger growth from 2007 onwards.
CDE: Manufacture of petroleum and chemicals etc.
Latest Regional Accounts estimates are much closer to the adjusted estimates used in Scottish 1998-2011 SUTs, up to 2010. The previous adjustments applied up to 2009 are no longer required. ABS and other data sources suggest some deviation from Regional Accounts estimates are required for 2011 and 2012.
CF: Manufacture of pharmaceuticals
Latest Regional Accounts estimates are much closer to the adjusted estimates used in Scottish 1998-2011 SUTs. The previous adjustments applied to 2004 to 2007 are no longer required.
CH: Manufacture of basic metals and products
ABS data suggests higher GVA in 2008, 2010 and 2011.
CI: Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products
ABS and other data sources suggest some adjustment to 1998 and 1999 required.
CL: Manufacture of transport equipment
Large drop in 2009 and spike in 2011 not seen in underlying ABS data - smoothing.
D: Electricity, gas etc.
ABS and other data sources suggest higher growth from 2008 onwards.
E: Water Supply; sewerage, waste etc.
Regional Accounts Gross Operating Surplus spike in 2008 is not seen in the ABS data. Output in all years dropped slightly to allow a balance of supply and demand.
Latest Regional Accounts estimates are much closer to the adjusted estimates used in Scottish 1998-2011 SUTs. No adjustment required.
J: Information and communication
ABS and other data sources suggest adjustment required.
M: Professional, scientific and technical activities
ABS and other data sources suggest flatter growth 2010 to 2012.
N: Administrative and support service activities
ABS and other data sources suggest less growth in 2009.
Sharp fall in COE in 2012 not seen in other data sources
Q: Human health and social work activities
Latest Regional Accounts estimates are much closer to the adjusted estimates used in Scottish 1998-2011 SUTs. No adjustment required.
R: Arts, entertainment and recreation
Low estimates in Regional Accounts GOS in 1998 and 1999 and large spikes in in 2003, 2006 and 2009, these are not seen in the ABS and very difficult to balance supply and demand.
S: Other service activities
Large Regional Accounts revisions as a result of the NPISH review and the ESA2010 inclusion of illegal activities meant it was very difficult to balance supply and demand in 2012.
Scottish I-O Team