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GDP Methodology Updates

2017 Q1

The 5 July 2017 publication of Scottish GDP included an estimate for 2017 Quarter 1 based on 2013 weights, with no prior quarters open to revision. 

New annual weights for 2014 were published in the Supply and Use Tables for 1998-2014 on 26 July 2017 and incorporated into an updated estimate of volume GDP, based on 2014 weights, published in the Quarterly National Accounts Scotland publication for 2017 Q1 on 23 August 2017. This 'second estimate' of GDP growth for 2017 Q1 was open for revision in all quarters back to 1998. A paper with details of the reweighting is available at the following link: Revisions to Scottish GDP - 2017 Q1 

2016 Q1

The July 2016 publication of Scottish GDP incorporates revisions associated with updated 2013 GVA weights as well as the UK Blue Book 2016. As in previous years, these publications have led to revisions of the time series of Scottish GDP. As is normal practice, we have also taken this opportunity to implement other methodological improvements to the Scottish estimates.

A paper with details on these revsions and methodological improvements is available at the following link: Revisions to Scottish GDP - 2016 Q1.

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2014 Q4

This publication of Scottish Quarterly GDP incorporates a number of revisions associated with updated (2012) GVA weights and revisions to comply with the National Accounts regulations as set out in the European System of Accounts 2010 (ESA10).

A paper with details on the ESA10 and other methodology changes implemented in this release is available at the following link: 2014 Quarter 4 GDP for Scotland: Weights and Methodology updates and implementation of European System of Accounts 2010.

2011 Q3

The methodology for estimating GVA in the banks and building societies components of the financial services sector has been updated with the improved methodology announced previosuly. This has led to revisions to the financial services sector from 1998-onwards.

Updates to the deflators used in the UK national accounts implemented in the Blue Book 2011 produced by ONS have been mirrored in the latest Scottish results. The principal change was the replacement of Retail Price Index (RPI) series with Consumer Price Index (CPI) series as the main measures of price changes in the Services sector. This has led to revisions across the Services sectors from 1998-onwards.

 A methodology note has been published at the following link: GDP 2011Q3 Methodology Note

2011 Q2

The growth rate for financial services for the latest quarter has been constrained to the UK growth rate for the sector pending the introduction of an improved sector model which is under development.

United Kingdom GDP estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are now published according the new 2007 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) instead of the 2003 SIC. The results for Scotland published in this bulletin continue to be produced using the 2003 SIC. To aid comparison with UK results at the broad industry level, the underlying data have been reclassified to provide results for Scotland on a 2007 SIC basis and presented in an annex to the publication.

2011 Q1

The growth rate for financial services for the latest quarter has been constrained to the UK growth rate for the sector pending the introduction of an improved sector model which is under development.

2010 Q4

There were no methodological changes this quarter.

2010 Q3

There were no methodological changes this quarter.

2010 Q2

There were a number of methodological developments implemented this quarter. The main changes are:

Following publication of Input-Output (IO) analysis for Scotland for 1998-2007 on 13 October 2010, weights for economic sectors have been updated from 2004 to 2005, 2006 and 2007, and minor changes made to weights from 1998 to 2004.

The GDP series from 1998 to 2007 have been benchmarked to the new Input-Output data, reflecting the fact that IO analysis provides the most complete and accurate measurement of GDP for those years.

There has been a comprehensive review of the Production sector, with ratio estimation replacing panel estimates for most industry sub-sectors.

The series for Health and Social Work has been updated to incorporate a cost weighted measure for health output.

A methodology note has been published at the following link: GDP 2010Q2 Methodology Note

2010 Q1

There were no methodological changes this quarter.

2009 Q4

There were no methodological changes this quarter.

2009 Q3

There were no methodological changes this quarter.

2009 Q2

The input series for shipbuilding has been replaced with a deflated turnover series using an improved methodology, ratio estimation, that will be more sensitive to current activity.

2009 Q1

There were no methodological changes this quarter.

2008 Q4

There were no methodological changes this quarter.

2008 Q3

The main methodological change in this quarters estimates of GDP relates to the calculation and allocation of Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM). This has resulted in numerous long-run revisions to historical data. Further information about FISIM can be found in section A3 of Scottish Economic Statistics 2008 ( www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/ses).

The incorporation of the full FISIM adjustment into Scotland's economic statistics represents a significant improvement in the measurement of the interactions between the financial services sector and other sectors. The approach acknowledges the full scope of the industry by recognising, for the first time, the value generated in the economy through financial services' interactions with final consumers, notably households, government and exports. Through incorporation of the full FISIM adjustment, compliance with international National Accounts guidance has been improved and comparability maintained with economic statistics produced for the United Kingdom as a whole.