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Experimental Statistics

21/04/2017 – Revision of experimental statistics

Please note that these statistics were revised as it was identified that a small number of postcodes were allocated to the incorrect local authority.  The revised set of tables can be accessed below.  The changes in the total number of records at a local authority level in each table are no greater than +/-2% although there may be greater relative changes for the smaller categories e.g. by age and gender.  There is no change for the overall totals and these remain consistent with the published headline statistics. 

Procedures have been put in place to ensure that these sorts of errors do not arise in future years.

 

Experimental Statistics

Criminal Proceedings statistics by the local authority of the accused, 2014-15 - 2015-16

These experimental statistics, at a local authority level, have been published alongside the Criminal Proceedings in Scotland 2015-16 National Statistics publication. The statistics present numbers of court convictions and measures used by Police Scotland and the Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service (COPFS) as alternatives to prosecution for 2014-15 and 2015-16.  The local authority information is  based on the postcode of the accused’s address.

Criminal proceedings statistics were, up until this release, available at a local authority level, based on the location of the court in which the case is heard. Although informative, these are not always the most useful breakdowns for our users as they are not necessarily representative of where the accused individuals live and therefore where the support services are required.  From January 2014, Police Scotland, who provide the Criminal History System (CHS) data that the Criminal Proceedings statistics are derived from, began to supply the “postcode district” (i.e. the first half of the postcode) of the accused’s address. These local authority breakdowns result from this new postcode information.

A consultation was run in July/August 2015 to identify stakeholder needs for this local information.  Results to this consultation can be found here.

 

Tables

The tables are available for download here and include the following breakdowns:

  • Table 1a and b - Convictions by court disposal, age and gender;

  • Table 2a and b - Convictions by court disposal and crime type;

  • Table 3a and b - Custodial sentences by length of sentence;

  • Table 4a and b - Fiscal disposals by disposal type;

  • Table 5a and b - Police disposals by disposal type.

 

Data quality and disclosure control

These statistics have been classed as ‘experimental’ because postcode information is not available for all records.  The percentage of records where postcode information was available is presented in the table below, by disposal and financial year.

 

Percentage of records with a valid postcode

Type of data

Completeness 2014-15

Completeness 2015-16

Court convictions

80%

80%

Police disposals

78%

78%

Fiscal disposals

84%

85%

1. ‘Completeness’ refers to the percentage of records where a valid postcode was present.

Please note that the completeness rates vary by different characteristics of the data e.g. within the court convictions data, custodial sentence information (71% in 2015-16) has a much lower completeness rate compared to financial penalties (85%). Missing local authority information is clearly presented in the tables so users can take this into account when using the statistics.

Completeness rates vary considerably by the local authority area of where the court is located.  Please note that the local authority based on the court location will not necessarily be the same as where the accused lives but is likely to be an adjacent local authority. For example, people in Midlothian, where there are no courts, will travel to court in the City of Edinburgh.  Even in local authorities where courts are located there can be cross border travel dependent on demand.  Completeness rates by court location are presented in the spreadsheet and the varying levels of completeness should be taken into account by users. 

Please be aware that we have applied disclosure control to the tables so individuals cannot be identified at this low level of geography.  We have done this by only presenting the overall missing totals and not providing a breakdown of missing local authority records by smaller demographic groups. 

 

Future Plans

A data quality exercise helped identify that some of the currently missing postcodes are for non-Scottish locations e.g. residents from outside Scotland committing offences while in Scotland. Police Scotland have implemented a change so non-Scottish postcodes will be supplied from July 2016 onwards. This will allow identification of postcodes that are missing are due to being “non-Scottish”, or blank due to the accused being of no fixed abode.

For the Criminal Proceedings in Scotland 2016-17 publication we will reassess the level of completeness and accuracy, in light of Police Scotland supplying us with missing postcodes as detailed above. Provided the completeness and accuracy of this data improves, we hope to then be able to remove the ‘experimental’ label from these statistics. As data become more complete we may also be able to provide further breakdowns for future outputs.

Due to the data quality issues of these experimental statistics the tables published on the website are the only information available.  It is not possible to request further breakdowns by local authority of the accused at this stage.

 

We welcome user feedback on the tables as they currently stand, and on data users would like to see in the future:

Email: justiceanalysts@gov.scot