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A Review of Tax Revenue Forecasting Models for the Scottish Housing Market

A Review of Tax Revenue Forecasting Models for the Scottish Housing Market

Friday, April 21, 2017

ISBN: 9781786529190

The findings of an independent literature review of tax revenue forecasting models for the housing market.

Executive Summary

This independent literature review of tax revenue forecasting models was commissioned by the Scottish Government in response to recommendations made by the Scottish Fiscal Commission.

The aim of this research was to explore different models of forecasting the housing market that are present in the literature, and assess the degree to which they would offer an improvement in terms of their suitability for tax revenue forecasting, over the Scottish Government’s current approach.

The report provides an overview of different approaches to modelling the Scottish housing market for the purposes of tax forecasting. The strengths and weaknesses of each different modelling approach are assessed against a range of criteria.