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Scotland's Future

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Endnotes

1. Even after the new tax powers of the Scotland Act 2012, the Scottish Parliament will only be responsible for around 15% of taxes raised in Scotland. Scottish Government (2013) Scotland's Balance Sheet. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/06/9241/downloads

2. The Barnett Formula allocates to Scotland a population share of changes in comparable spending programmes in England. Comparability is the extent to which services delivered by Whitehall departments correspond to services delivered by the devolved administrations. Barnett only applies to expenditure classified within Departmental Expenditure Limits - about 85 per cent of Scotland's total budget.

3. Institute for Fiscal Studies: Child and Working-Age Poverty in Northern Ireland from 2010 to 2020. http://www.ifs.org.uk/comms/r78.pdf

4. Amongst OECD economies, Scotland would be ranked 8th in terms of output per head. Scottish Government (2013) Scotland's International GDP Per Capita Ranking - 2011. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Economy/Publications/GDP-Per-Capita

5. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: www.oecd.org

The mission of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is to promote policies that will improve the economic and social well-being of people around the world.

There are currently 34 members: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States.

The OECD provides a forum in which governments can work together to share experiences and seek solutions to common problems. It works with governments to understand what drives economic, social and environmental change, and, drawing on facts and real-life experience, it recommends policies designed to make the lives of ordinary people better.

6. Life expectancy at birth in Scotland was 1.8 years lower than in the UK for females and 2.5 years lower for males in 2013. Source: Period expectations of life (years). Based on historical mortality rates from 1981 to 2010 and assumed calendar year mortality rates from the 2010-based principle projections.

UK data: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lifetables/period-and-cohort-life-expectancy-tables/2010-based/a1--2010-based-period-expectation-of-life--1981-2060--principal-projection--uk.xls

Scotland data: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lifetables/period-and-cohort-life-expectancy-tables/2010-based/rft-a6-scoperiod10.xls.

7. In 2011/12, 710,000 people (14% of the population) were living in relative income poverty before housing costs in Scotland. Scottish Government (2013) Poverty and income inequality in Scotland 2011-12. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/06/2493

8. OECD Statistics - 2012 GDP per capita, US$, current prices, current PPPs. Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland are ranked in the top 15.

9. OECD Statistics - 2010 data on Gini coefficient (after taxes and transfers). Data not available for all countries, so 2009 figures used for Chile, Hungary, Ireland, Japan, New Zealand, Switzerland and Turkey.

10. OECD: Divided We Stand: Why Inequality Keeps Rising. http://www.oecd.org/unitedkingdom/49170234.pdf

11. Currently nine of the top 15 advanced economies measured by income per capita are small countries with populations less than 10 million. OECD Statistics - 2012 GDP per capita, US$, current prices, current PPPs. Luxembourg, Norway, Switzerland, Austria, Ireland, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland are ranked in the top 15.

12. Paragraph 30. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/Government/concordats/Referendum-on-independence

13. "Supporters of independence will always be able to cite examples of small, independent and thriving economies across Europe such as Finland, Switzerland and Norway. It would be wrong to suggest that Scotland could not be another such successful, independent country" http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3639114/Scots-and-English-flourish-in-the-Union.html

14. Scottish Government (2013) Scotland's Balance Sheet. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/06/9241/downloads

15. Office for Budget Responsibility - Economic and Fiscal Outlook - March 2013.

16. International Monetary Fund - World Economic Outlook Database - October 2013.

17. ONS Wealth and Assets Survey 2008-10. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/was/wealth-in-great-britain-wave-2/wealth-of-the-wealthiest-2008-10/wealth-of-the-wealthiest-households-great-britain-2008-10.html#tab-The-South-East-has-biggest-share-of-the-wealthiest-households

18. OECD statistics - 2010 data on Gini coefficient (after taxes and transfers). Data not available for all countries, so 2009 figures used for Chile, Hungary, Ireland, Japan, New Zealand, Switzerland and Turkey.

19. United Nations Development Programme (2013) Summary - Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South:Human Progress in a Diverse World. New York: UNDP. http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR2013_EN_Summary.pdf

20. Oil and Gas UK, Economic Report 2013. http://www.oilandgasuk.co.uk/2013-economic-report.cfm

21. 2020 Routemap for Renewable Energy in Scotland. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/917/0118802.pdf

22. Based on current projections, Scotland is projected to have a lower dependency ratio than the UK until approximately 2032 (the dependency ratio is based on the pension age/child (under 16) population relative to the working-age population). In 2012 there were 588 dependents per 1,000 persons of working age in Scotland compared to 615 in the UK as a whole. Source: NRS and ONS 2012-based population projections.

23. In estimating total public spending undertaken for Scotland, GERS includes all spending undertaken directly for Scottish residents and businesses by every tier of government, including the Westminster and Scottish Governments and Scottish Local Authorities. This includes a share of UK wide public spending which cannot be easily identified as benefiting any one specific part of the country. For example, Scotland is allocated a population share of UK defence expenditure, on the basis that all areas of the UK benefit equally from such spending. Further information is available from http://www.scotland.gov.uk/gers

24. Fiscal Commission Working Group, (2013) - First Report - Macroeconomic Framework, Paragraph 4.19.

25. Scotland's balance sheet, Scottish Government, April 2013, Table 1.2. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00418420.pdf

26. In cash terms.

27. Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland 2011-12, Table 3.1.

28. Analysis based on Scottish Government, March 2013: Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland 2011-12.

29. Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland 2011-12, Table 2.5.

30. Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland 2011-12, Box 2.3.

31. For further discussion of Scotland's public finances and international comparisons please see the Scottish Government report "Scotland's Balance Sheet". http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0042/00425599.pdf

32. Scotland's Balance Sheet, Scottish Government, April 2013, Paragraph 4.16. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00418420.pdf

33. The Fiscal Commission Working Group is a sub-group of the Scottish Government's Council of Economic Advisers which has advised on the development of a robust fiscal and macroeconomic framework for an independent Scotland. Its membership includes two Nobel Laureates. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Economy/Council-Economic-Advisers/FCWG. It is referred to as the Fiscal Commission in the rest of this paper.

34. Fiscal Commission Working Group: Stabilisation and Savings Funds for Scotland, Annex A. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0043/00435303.pdf.

35. Fiscal Commission Working Group: Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Commissions, Paragraph 2.25 (November 2013).

36. OECD Economic Outlook Database.

37. Fiscal Commission Working Group: Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Commissions, Paragraph 2.26 (November 2013).

38. Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland 2011-12, Table E.4

39. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/government-deficit_gov-dfct-table-en (There are 34 OECD members in total, however, OECD data for 2012 is not reported for Chile, Mexico and Turkey).

40. Projections of public spending and onshore tax receipts are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts in the March 2013 Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

41. A further discussion on Scotland's historic and per head share of UK public sector net debt is provided in Scotland's Balance Sheet, Scottish Government (April 2013). http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00418420.pdf

42. Office for Budget Responsibility - Economic and Fiscal Outlook - March 2013.

43. UK forecasts are taken from Office for Budget Responsibility - Economic and Fiscal Outlook - March 2013.

44. The Scottish Government's Oil and Gas Analytical Bulletin, March 2013, provides further information on these forecasts.

45. Office for Budget Responsibility - Economic and Fiscal Outlook - March 2013.

46. International Monetary Fund - World Economic Outlook Database - October 2013

47. Fiscal Commission Working Group Reports. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Economy/Council-Economic-Advisers/FCWG

48. Fiscal Commission Working Group Report: Macroeconomic Framework, Chapter 5. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00414291.pdf

49. Fiscal Commission Working Group - First Report - Macroeconomic Framework (2013), paragraph 3.1. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/02/3017

50. ONS - Regional Gross Value Added (December 2012). http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/regional-accounts/regional-gross-value-added--income-approach-/december-2012/stb-regional-gva-2011.html#tab-Regional--NUTS1--GVA-estimates

51. Scottish Government Analysis - Scottish National Accounts Project.

52. Scottish Government Analysis - Scottish National Accounts Project.

53. Scottish Government (2013) Scotland's International GDP Per Capita Ranking - 2011. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Economy/Publications/GDP-Per-Capita

54. Ernst & Young UK Attractiveness Survey 2013. http://www.ey.com/UK/en/Issues/Business-environment/2013-UK-attractiveness-survey

55. Scottish Government (2013) Scotland's Balance Sheet. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00418420.pdf

56. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Business-Industry/Energy/Facts

57. Oil and Gas UK, 2013 Economic Report. http://www.oilandgasuk.co.uk/2013-economic-report.cfm

58. For example in 2010, of the 10 OECD countries with the lowest income inequality (measured by the Gini coefficient in 2010), 8 have populations less than 10 million. 7 out of the 10 OECD countries with the highest GDP per capita (measured by $US, current prices, current PPPs) in 2010 were small countries. Norway, Denmark, Austria and Sweden ranked the top ten for both GDP per capita and income inequality whilst the UK was ranked 28th for income inequality and 15th for GDP per capita. Source: OECD statistics - 2010 figures have been used as more recent Gini coefficient figures were not available at the time of publication.

59. Between 1977-2007 Scotland's onshore GDP per head grew at an annual rate of 2.48% in real (volume) terms. The average rate among small European countries was 2.61%, a gap of 0.12% each year. Over a 30 year period the compounded effect of this gap totals 3.8% of GDP £900 per person in 2011 prices. The small countries used for comparison are: Austria, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Norway (mainland only), Portugal and Sweden. Sources: Scottish Government, GDP and SNAP statistics; OECD, GDP and population statistics; Statistics Norway, mainland GDP statistics.

60. OECD statistics - 2010 data on Gini coefficient (after taxes and transfers). Data not available for all countries, so 2009 figures used for Chile, Hungary, Ireland, Japan, New Zealand, Switzerland and Turkey.

61. In 2011, the OECD reported that income inequality among working age people increased more quickly in the UK than in any other OECD economy since 1975. OECD (2011) Divided We Stand: Why Inequality Keeps Rising. http://www.oecd.org/unitedkingdom/49170234.pdf

62. The Fiscal Commission Working Group highlighted how "Such patterns of inequality will continue to have a negative impact on growth and prosperity in the long-term". http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00414291.pdf

63. In 2011, output per head in London was over 70% higher than the UK average. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/regional-accounts/regional-gross-value-added--income-approach-/december-2012/stb-regional-gva-2011.html#tab-Regional--NUTS1--GVA-estimates

64. Scottish Government (2013) Scotland's Balance Sheet. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/06/9241/downloads

65. In 1999, excluding the North Sea, Scotland was ranked 4th out of the 12 UK countries and regions for output per head (95% of UK figure). In 2011, Scotland had risen to 3rd with output per head at 99% of the equivalent UK figure. Source: GVA per head at current basic prices on workplace basis, UK figure excluding extra-regio. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-265236

66. http://www.davidhumeinstitute.com/images/stories/Spring_2013/Small-countries.pdf

67. Scottish Government (2013) Scotland's International GDP Per Capita Ranking - 2011. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Economy/Publications/GDP-Per-Capita In 2011 Luxembourg, Norway, Switzerland, Ireland, Austria, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland are ranked in the top 15.

68. Human Development Index 2012 Rankings. http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/ Norway, New Zealand, Ireland, Sweden, Switzerland, Hong Kong, Iceland, Denmark, Israel, Austria and Singapore are ranked in the top 20.

69. http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/

70. ONS Labour Productivity, Q2 2013. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_326680.pdf

71. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/Performance/scotPerforms/purpose/productivity

72. In Norway, the average unemployment rate was 3.3% between 2004 and 2012, and in Iceland the average employment rate was 81.6% over the same period. Source: Eurostat

73. http://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/documents/censusresults/release1b/rel1bsb.pdf

74. The working age population in Scotland is projected to increase by 3.4% compared to 10.9% in the UK between 2012 and 2035. ONS/NRS 2012-based population projections.

75. In 2011/12 the Gini coefficient for Scotland was 32, lower than the UK which was 34. Source: Family Resources Survey, DWP.

76. 2010 data from OECD on international Gini comparisons. Data not available for all countries, so 2009 figures used for Chile, Hungary, Ireland, Japan, New Zealand, Switzerland and Turkey. Data for Scotland based on 2010-2011. Note that the 2010/11 Gini coefficient for Scotland was lower, at 30, than the 2011/12 value, however OECD data is only currently available for 2010.

77. Data from the ONS Annual Survey of Household Earnings for 2011 shows that median manufacturing gross annual salaries were 24% higher than those in the service sector, and 19% higher than the average across all industries.

78. Scottish Government Supply and Use Tables 1998-2009 balanced accounts.

79. Business Enterprise Research and Development 2011 Tables Expenditure on R&D performed within businesses in Scotland. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/RD/BERDTables

80. Helper, S. Krueger, T. and Wial, H. (2012) Why does manufacturing Matter? Which Manufacturing Matters?

81. Scottish Government (2013) Scotland's Global Connections Survey 2011. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00412570.pdf

82. Analysis conducted on behalf of the Scottish Government by aviasolutions.

83. York Aviation. The Impact of Air Passenger Duty on Scotland, Final Report October 2012. Commissioned by a Consortium of Scottish Airports.
http://www.glasgowairport.com/static/Glasgow/Downloads/PDF/APD-York_Aviation-report-Oct-2012.pdf
http://corporate.easyjet.com/~/media/Files/E/Easyjet-Plc-V2/pdf/content/APD-study-Abridged.pdf

84. http://www.taoiseach.gov.ie/eng/News/Archives/2010/Taoiseach's_Speeches_2010/Speech_by_the_Taoiseach_at_the_Opening_of_Terminal_2_T2_Dublin_Airport_on_19_November_2010.html

85. http://www.sdi.co.uk/

86. Scottish Government (2013) Scotland's Global Connections Survey 2011. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00412570.pdf

87. There are 92,381 recipients of Small Business Bonus Scheme (SBBS) relief in 2013-14. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Local-Government-Finance/NDR-Rates-Relief/SBBS2013

88. Scottish Government (2013) Economic and Competition Regulation in an Independent Scotland. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00415411.pdf

89. Protecting Consumers, Audit Scotland, January 2013. http://www.audit-scotland.gov.uk/docs/local/2013/nr_130131_protecting_consumers.pdf

90. Aghion and Howitt, 2009, "The Economics of Growth Theory", provides an overview of the economic theory of growth and the importance of technological progress as the main driver. More recently, NESTA's Plan i from 2012 underlines how "decades of research have shown that innovation is the most important driver of long term productivity and prosperity".

91. Gross Expenditure on Research and Development Data for Scotland, Table 4a. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/RD/GERDTables

92. Scottish Government (2013) Gross Expenditure on Research and Development Data for Scotland, Table 4a. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/RD/GERDTables

93. See Table 4a and Table 4b. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/RD/GERDTables

94. In 2011 49% of expenditure on R&D was performed in Higher Education in Scotland. Scottish Government (2013) Gross Expenditure on Research and Development Data for Scotland. Table 1. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/RD/GERDTables

95. Scottish Government (2013) Gross Expenditure on Research and Development Data for Scotland, Table 4c. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/RD/GERDTables

96. http://www.davidhumeinstitute.com/images/stories/Spring_2013/Small-countries.pdf

97. OECD 2012, "Inequality in labour income - What are its drivers and how can it be reduced?", OECD Economics Department Policy Notes. http://www.oecd.org/eco/public-finance/49417273.pdf

98. Workers on Board, The case for workers' voice in corporate governance. TUC. http://www.tuc.org.uk/sites/default/files/Workers_on_board.pdf

99. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukdsi/2013/9780111540169/regulation/3

100. http://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/182602/bis-13-p135-women-on-boards-2013.pdf

101. http://ec.europa.eu/justice/gender-equality/files/womenonboards/factsheet-general-2_en.pdf

102. Households Below Average Income dataset. UK figures: 1996/7 to 2011/12.

103. Public Sector Employment in Scotland - Q2 2013. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/09/2277

104. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Releases/2012/11/Livingwage051112

105. Joint Labour Market Study by Scottish Government and STUC - June 2013. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0042/00425244.pdf

106. Based on SG analysis of ASHE micro-data. ASHE, ONS.

107. Based on the additional gross earnings of an individual working full time.

108. http://www.tuc.org.uk/economic-issues/economic-analysis/corporate-governance/chancellors-shares-rights-gimmick-could-cost

109. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4ff7a5ac-42ea-11e2-a3d2-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2kF5hJR4P

110. Fiscal Commission Working Group (2013) First Report - Macroeconomic Framework. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00414291.pdf

111. Page 19 Fiscal Commission Working Group (2013) First Report - Macroeconomic Framework. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00414291.pdf

112. Fiscal Commission Working Group (2013) First Report - Annex: Assessment of key currency options. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00414366.pdf

113. Chapter 7 - Fiscal Commission Working Group (2013) First Report - Macroeconomic Framework. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00414291.pdf

114. Fiscal Commission Working Group (2013) Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Commissions. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0043/00437469.pdf

115. Fiscal Commission Working Group (2013) Stabilisation and Savings Funds for Scotland. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0043/00435303.pdf

116. Box 7.03 Fiscal Commission Working Group (2013) First Report - Macroeconomic Framework. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00414291.pdf

117. OECD Tax Database Table II.1 http://www.oecd.org/ctp/tax-policy/tax-database.htm#C_CorporateCaptial

118. Scottish Government (2013) Scotland's Balance Sheet. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/06/9241/downloads

119. Fiscal Commission Working Group (2013) Principles for a Modern and Efficient Tax System in an Independent Scotland. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0043/00434977.pdf

120. In the last year which data is available, which is more exposed to fluctuations in tax revenues and GDP, costs per revenue are 0.83 in the UK, 0.71 in Denmark, 0.40 in Sweden, and 0.80 in Finland. See page 37 Fiscal Commission Working Group (2013) Principles for a Modern and Efficient Tax System in an Independent Scotland. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0043/00434977.pdf

121. http://corporate.easyjet.com/~/media/Files/E/Easyjet-Plc-V2/pdf/content/APD-study-Abridged.pdf

122. Scottish Government: Devolving Corporation Tax in the Scotland Bill (2011). http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/919/0120770.pdf

123. http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/blog/2013/oct/21/who-will-benefit-tax-break-married-couples/

124. http://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/6869

125. In the UK, the tax gap is estimated to have been around £35 billion, or 7 per cent of the total due in 2011-12. 11 per cent of this, £4 billion, is reported to arise through tax avoidance schemes. HMRC (2013) Measuring Tax Gaps. http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/statistics/tax-gaps/mtg-2013.pdf

126. Fiscal Commission Working Group (2013) Principles for a Modern and Efficient Tax System in an Independent Scotland. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0043/00434977.pdf

127. For example see analysis released on impact of HS2 on different parts of the UK obtained by the BBC via FOI. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24589652

128. Statistical Bulletin - Transport Series. Transport and Travel in Scotland 2012. Table S1 [% refers to the change between 2004-5 and 2012-13]. http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/strategy-and-research/publications-and-consultations/j281378-08.htm#tableS1

129. Transport Scotland (2012) Scottish Ferries Service: Ferries Plan (2013 - 2022). http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/files/documents/reports/j254579_1.pdf

130. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/244672/qep511.xls

131. http://www.nats.aero/about-us/what-we-do/our-ownership-2/

132. Scottish Government (2013) Economic and Competition Regulation in an Independent Scotland. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00415411.pdf

133. Relative poverty is defined here as individuals living in households whose equivalised income is below 60% of UK median income in the same year, before housing costs.

134. Scottish Government (2013) Poverty and income inequality in Scotland 2011-12. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/06/2493

135. Institute for Fiscal Studies: Child and Working-Age Poverty in Northern Ireland from 2010 to 2020. http://www.ifs.org.uk/comms/r78.pdf

136. Dorling D: Inequality and Injustice: Some News from Britain. Urban Geography 33.5 (2012). http://bellwether.metapress.com/content/m10m3736514222q5/fulltext.pdf

137. Period expectations of life (years). Based on historical mortality rates from 1981 to 2010 and assumed calendar year mortality rates from the 2010-based principle projections.
UK data. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lifetables/period-and-cohort-life-expectancy-tables/2010-based/a1--2010-based-period-expectation-of-life--1981-2060--principal-projection--uk.xls
Scotland data: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lifetables/period-and-cohort-life-expectancy-tables/2010-based/rft-a6-scoperiod10.xls

138. http://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/healthy-life-expectancy/key-points

139. http://www.gcph.co.uk/publications/391_still_the_sick_man_of_europe

140. Scotland and European Health for All Database 2012. http://www.scotpho.org.uk/comparative-health/scotland-and-european-hfa-database

141. Audit Scotland (2012) Health Inequalities in Scotland.

142. http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/28862.aspx?r=7902&mode=pdf

143. Scottish Government (2013) UK Government cuts to welfare expenditure in Scotland. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00417011.pdf

144. Internal Scottish Government analysis of the 2012 Autumn Budget Statement and Resolution Foundation (2012) Resolution Foundation analysis of the 2012 Autumn Statement. http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/resolution-foundation-analysis-2012-autumn-stateme/

145. Scottish Government (2013) Impact of UK Government Welfare Reforms on families. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/People/welfarereform/analysis/wrimpactonfamilies

146. Based on initial analysis at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Built-Environment/Housing/supply-demand/chma/Benefitchanges/underoccupancy updated to reflect actual rather than projected impacts.

147. Scottish Government (2013) Impact of Planned Benefit Changes on Under-Occupied Disabled Households in Scotland. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Built-Environment/Housing/supply-demand/chma/Benefitchanges/BenefitChangesDisabledHouseholds

148. http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/-Bedroom-Tax-help-543.aspx

149. Scottish Government (2013) Empowering Scotland: the Government's Programme for Scotland 2013-14. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/09/8177

150. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/People/welfarereform/scottishwelfarefund

151. The Pensions Commission (2005) A New Pension Settlement for the Twenty-First Century. London: TSO.

152. OECD (2011), Pensions at a Glance 2011: Retirement-income Systems in OECD and G20 Countries, Part II Chapter 2 (Pension Entitlements), OECD Publishing. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/pension_glance-2011-en

153. Pensions Commission, 2005.

154. Maer, L. and Thurley, D. (2009) House of Commons Library Standard Note SN/BT/1759. Last updated: 9 March 2009

155. http://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/analysis/raid-review/131072.article

156. Department for Work and Pensions (2013) Framework for the analysis of future pension incomes. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/238978/framework-analysis-future-pension-incomes.pdf

157. ONS (2013) Pension Trends - Chapter 7: Private Pension Scheme Membership. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171766_314955.pdf

158. HMRC (2013) Personal pensions - estimate number of individuals contributing by country and region. http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/statistics/pension-stats/pen5.xls

159. LCP (2013) Accounting for Pensions 2013. LCP. http://www.lcp.uk.com/media/636443/lcp_afp2013_interactivepdf.pdf

160. Department for Work and Pensions (2013) Framework for the analysis of future pension incomes. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/framework-for-the-analysis-of-future-pension-incomes

161. Scottish Government (2013) Poverty and income inequality in Scotland 2011-12. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/06/2493

162. Scottish Government (2013) Pensions in an Independent Scotland. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/09/3492

163. Scottish Government (2013) Scotland's Balance Sheet

164. DWP tabulation tool: Pension Credit Caseload - number of beneficiaries: Region by Time Series by Type of Pension Credit. Note that future interaction between Guarantee Credit and the single tier pension makes prediction of future number of recipients difficult.

165. The benefits will be lower if individuals do not qualify for the full Savings Credit. Note that entitlement for couples depends on both partners' incomes; the maximum Savings Credit entitlement for couples is currently £22.89 per week.

166. Dependency ratios should be interpreted carefully. While a simple interpretation is that the ratio reflects the number of older people or children who are 'dependent' on people aged 16 to 64, that interpretation assumes that most older people and children are not economically active. The reality is more complex, for example not everyone of working age is employed and economically active (some are at school or university and others are unemployed); and the age at which people retire varies greatly. A large number of factors will affect future dependency ratios and the further ahead projections are made, the less accurate they are likely to be.

167. NRS/ONS (2013) 2012-based population projections.

168. Population projections have limitations. A projection is a calculation showing what happens if particular assumptions are made. The population projections are trend-based. They are, therefore, not policy-based forecasts of what the government expects to happen. Many social and economic factors influence population change, including policies adopted by both central and local government. The relationships between the various factors are complex and largely unknown.

169. NRS/ONS (2013) 2012-based population projections.

170. Family Resources Survey, 2011/12.

171. United Nations Development Programme (2013) Summary - Human Development Report 2013 The Rise of the South:Human Progress in a Diverse World. New York: UNDP. http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR2013_EN_Summary.pdf

172. http://www.davidhumeinstitute.com/images/stories/Spring_2013/Small-countries.pdf

173. In brief, 'social protection' covers pensions and other welfare spending. More broadly, the term describes help given to those in need or at risk of hardship. Regarded as a safety net meant to provide a minimum decent standard of living, it is designed to protect the vulnerable in society such as those affected by, for example, illness, low income, family circumstances or age.

174. Pensions in an Independent Scotland. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/09/3492

175. Scottish Government (April 2013) Public Spending for Scotland. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00418131.pdf Analysis assigns Scotland a geographical share of GDP from North Sea oil and gas production.

176. Scottish Government (April 2013) Public Spending for Scotland. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00418131.pdf

177. HC (Deb) 15 Jan 2013: Column 715W. http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmhansrd/cm130115/text/130115w0003.htm#13011576000093

178. Scottish Government (September 2013) Annual Report for the Child Poverty Strategy for Scotland 2013. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/09/2212

179. Scottish Government (2013) The Gender Impact of Welfare Reform. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0043/00432337.pdf

180. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/02/3017

181. Fiscal Commission Working Group (2013) First Report: Macroeconomic Framework, p.24.

182. Scottish Executive (1999) Social Justice: A Scotland where Everyone Matters, Rt Hon Donald Dewar MSP, 1999. http://scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/158142/0042789.pdf

183. Expert Working Group on Welfare Report, June 2013. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/06/8875

184. Scottish Government (2013) Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland 2011/12. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/03/1859. Figure relates to 2011/12.

185. Department for Work and Pensions, 2012. https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-work-pensions/series/welfare-reform-act-2012-equality-impact-assessments

186. Gender Impact of the UK Welfare Reforms. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/People/welfarereform/analysis/welfarereformanalysisgenderimpact

187. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/People/welfarereform/EXPERTWORKINGGROUPONWELFARE

188. Institute for Fiscal Studies (July 2013) Government spending on benefits and state pensions in Scotland: current patterns and future issues. http://www.ifs.org.uk/bns/bn139.pdf

189. Office for National Statistics (June 2011) The effects of taxes and benefits on income inequality, 1980-2009/10. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/search/index.html?newquery=*&nscl=Income+Inequality+of+Households&nscl-orig=Income+Inequality+of+Households&content-type=publicationContentTypes&sortDirection=DESCENDING&sortBy=pubdate

190. Fiscal Commission Working Group: Principles for a Modern and Efficient Tax System in an Independent Scotland. (November 2013) http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/10/4839

191. Fiscal Commission Working Group - Principles for a Modern and Efficient Tax System in an Independent Scotland (November 2013), page 11.

192. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Government/Finance/scottishapproach/lbtt

193. Numbers as at May 2013. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Built-Environment/Housing/supply-demand/chma/Benefitchanges/underoccupancypenalty

194. Internal Scottish Government analysis based on DWP estimates of impact of changes under Universal Credit (UC) in Scotland available in Welfare Reform (Further Provision) (Scotland) Act 2012, Initial Report - 2013

195. Scottish Government analysis based on Resolution Foundation (2012) Gaining from Growth -The final report of the Commission on Living Standards. http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/final-report-commission-living-standards/

196. Expert Working Group on Welfare (June 2013) Expert Working Group on Welfare Report. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/06/8875

197. Healthy Living Survey 2013. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/06/7503/0

198. Fiscal Commission Working Group -Principles for a Modern and Efficient Tax System in an Independent Scotland (November 2013). http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/10/4839

199. The Expect Working Group's current Call for Evidence is available at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/People/welfarereform/EXPERTWORKINGGROUPONWELFARE/

200. Source: Department of Work and Pensions (2012) Work Programme evaluation: Findings from the first phase of qualitative research on programme delivery. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/work-programme-evaluation-findings-from-the-first-phase-of-qualitative-research-on-programme-delivery-rr821

201. National Audit Office (2013) Universal Credit: Early Progress. http://www.nao.org.uk/report/universal-credit-early-progress/

202. http://www.cpag.org.uk/content/stop-work-poverty Households Below Average Income dataset 2011/12, DWP

203. Expert Working Group on Welfare (June 2013) Expert Working Group on Welfare Report. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/06/8875

204. Expert Working Group on Welfare (June 2013) Expert Working Group on Welfare Report. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/06/8875 -paragraph 4.50

205. Expert Working Group on Welfare (June 2013) Expert Working Group on Welfare Report. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/06/8875

206. See for example the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD). http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/SIMD/

207. Scottish Government: Scotland's People Annual Report: Results from 2012 Scottish Household Survey. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/08/6973/3

208. http://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/6818 p.27

209. Table 4, Scottish House Condition Survey: Key Findings 2011. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2012/12/4995

210. Table 27, Scottish House Condition Survey, Key Findings 2011. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2012/12/4995

211. Dorling D (2013) In Place of Fear: Narrowing health inequalities.

212. http://www.ashscotland.org.uk/what-we-do/supply-information-about-tobacco-and-health/resources/national-evaluation-of-scotland%27s-smoke-free-legislation.aspx

213. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/Performance/programme-for-government/2013-14/Food-Standards-Scotland-Bill

214. These are: Royal Caledonian Curling Club, Scottish Football Association, Scottish Rugby Union, Basketball Scotland, Scottish Volleyball Association, Amateur Boxing Scotland, Badminton Scotland, SGU/SLGA (golf), Scottish Hockey, Table Tennis Scotland & Weightlifting.

215. Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2009: Highlights from Scotland's Results, Scottish Government, December 2010.

216. Scottish Government analysis 2013: UK Government cuts to welfare expenditure in Scotland Scottish Government, March 2013. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00417011.pdf

217. Scottish Government (September 2013) Annual Report for the Child Poverty Strategy for Scotland 2013. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/09/2212

218. Gourtsoyannis, R (2012) UK immigration policy is "poisonous gun" pointed at universities. http://www.holyrood.com/2012/11/uk-immigration-policy-is-poisonous-gun-pointed-at-universities

219. Scottish Parliament (2012) Education and Culture Committee Official Report 2 October 2012: Column 1514. http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/28862.aspx?r=7652&mode=pdf

220. Family and Daycare Trust (2013) The 2013 Scottish childcare report. http://www.familyandparenting.org/Resources/FPI/Documents/FCT_Scottish_Childcare_Costs_13.pdf. Based on average costs.

221. Scottish Government (2013) Summary statistics for attainment, leaver destinations and healthy living, No. 3: 2013 Edition. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/06/7503/4#tb3

222. Scottish Qualifications Authority (2013) Pre-appeals National Course and Awards Results Statistics 6 August 2013. http://www.sqa.org.uk/sqa/64717.4239.html

223. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/Performance/scotPerforms/indicator/youngpeople

224. Scottish Government (2012) Summary Statistics for Schools in Scotland, No.3: 2012 Edition. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2012/12/2355/19

225. Scottish Government analysis using http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/world-university-rankings/ and http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL

226. Research Assessment Exercise 2008 Scottish results available at http://www.sfc.ac.uk/research/research_assessment/research_assessment.aspx

227. Scottish Development International (2013) Scotland's Education Sector. http://www.sdi.co.uk/~/media/SDI/Files/documents/education/scotlands-education-sector-brochure

228. Skills Development Scotland (2009) Life Sciences Key Sector Report. http://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/media/116740/key%20sector%20report%20-%20life%20sciences.pdf

229. British Council Scotland (2013) A Strategic Analysis of the Scottish Higher Education sector's distinctive assets. http://www.britishcouncil.org/scotland-report-a-strategic-analysis-of-the-scottish-higher-education-sectors-distinctive-assets.pdf

230. Higher Education Statistics Authority (2013) HE finance plus Figure available at http://www.hesa.ac.uk/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1900&Itemid=239

231. Scottish Government (2012) Opportunities for All Supporting all young people to participate in post-16 learning, training or work. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2012/11/7618

232. http://oecdeducationtoday.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/making-education-more-equitable.html

233. Mostafa, T. and Green, A., Measuring the Impact of Universal Pre-School Education and Care on Literacy Performance Scores. Institute of Education (2012).

234. http://oecdeducationtoday.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/making-education-more-equitable.html

235. European Commission (2013) Barcelona objectives The development of childcare facilities for young children in Europe with a view to sustainable and inclusive growth. EU:Luxembourg

236. Daycare Trust and Family and Parenting Institute (2013) Childcare Cost Survey 2013. http://www.daycaretrust.org.uk/data/files/Research/costs_surveys/Childcare_Costs_Survey_2013.pdf

237. Scottish Government (2013) Early Childhood Education and Care Provision: International Review of Policy, Delivery and Funding. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/03/4564/0

238. British Council Scotland (2008) Tracking the University and College Experience in Scotland. http://www.britishcouncil.org/scotland-learning-igraduate-international-student-summary-report-26-06-08.pdf

239. Scottish Funding Council (2013) Higher Education Students and Qualifiers at Scottish Institutions 2011-12. http://www.sfc.ac.uk/web/FILES/ReportsandPublications/HE_Students_and_Qualifiers_publication_11-12.pdf

240. UCAS (2013) Interim assessment of UCAS acceptances by intended entry year, country of institution and qualifications held. http://www.ucas.com/news-events/news/2013/interim-assessment-ucas-acceptances-intended-entry-year-country-institution-0

241. UCAS, Interim assessment of UCAS acceptances, 24 September 2013.

242. Higher Education Statistics Authority (2013) HESA Finance Plus 2011/12, Table 5b. http://www.hesa.ac.uk/index.php?option=com_pubs&task=show_pub_detail&pubid=1710&Itemid=276 plus SFC estimate of Total Research Funding

243. Research Assessment Exercise 2008 Scottish results available at http://www.sfc.ac.uk/research/research_assessment/research_assessment.aspx

244. Running from 2014 to 2020, Horizon 2020 has a budget of just over €70 billion - including some €24 billion to support top-level research.

245. Higher Education Statistics Authority (2013) HESA Finance Plus 2011/12, Table 5b. http://www.hesa.ac.uk/index.php?option=com_pubs&task=show_pub_detail&pubid=1710&Itemid=276 Plus SFC estimate of Total Research Funding

246. The Anholt-GfK Roper Nation Brands Index (NBI). http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2012/12/4188/downloads#res409519

247. FCO Annual Report 2012/13. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/210136/HC_32_v0_2.pdf

248. Joint Statement by PM David Cameron and Taoiseach Enda Kenny on 12 March 2012, "British Irish relations - the next decade".

249. Golub, J (2012) the Journal of European Public Policy, vol 19:9, p1294-1315.

250. Scottish Government (2013) Global Connections Survey 2011.

251. http://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/en/censusresults/downloadablefilesr2.html

252. Bailes, A. JK., Thorhallsson, B., and Johnstone R. L. 2011. Scotland as an independent small state: Where would it seek shelter. Fraedigreinar, Stornmal & Stornsysla.

253. http://www.norden.org/en/about-nordic-co-operation/agreements/treaties-and-agreements/basic-agreement/the-helsinki-treaty

254. On 20 March 2013, the Scottish Parliament voted conclusively 61 in favour, 16 against and 31 abstentions) in support of the UN Secretary-General's five point plan for nuclear disarmament and called on the Westminster Government to acknowledge the Parliament's opposition to Trident.

255. Estimated direct MOD expenditure in Scotland in 2007-08 was £1.57 billion (House of Commons written answer, 6 April 2010: Column 1200W).

256. Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) 2011-12 estimates, Scotland's defence and security contribution within the UK. Scotland's combination to UK defence & security budgets is estimated to be £3 billion by 2016/17, based on the methodology set out in Chapter 2.

257. Oral statement to the House of Commons by the Secretary of State for Defence, Philip Hammond, MP, on 5 March 2013.

258. Oral statement to the House of Commons by then Secretary of State for Defence, Liam Fox, MP, on 18 July 2011.

259. MoD Personnel Bulletin 2.03 - service and civilian personnel - 2013.

260. The National Asset Register, HM Government, 2007, page 269.

261. The plans set out here are based on a process of policy development by the Scottish Government that has drawn appropriately on expert advice at a number of stages. The process involved development of an underpinning framework for defence and security policy, based on an understanding of Scotland's geopolitical context and analysis of threats and risk. Plans for specific defence and security capabilities were then developed based on that framework, drawing on a range of expert inputs.

262. The Secretary of State for Defence announced in the House of Commons on 6 November 2013 that the Westminster Government had signed an agreement in principle with BAE Systems for three new Offshore Patrol Vessels.

263. Scotland Analysis: Defence, UK Government, page 30.

264. This does not refer to the timeframe for the withdrawal of Trident nuclear weapons and/or the Vanguard submarine fleet, which would be decided and delivered separately as quickly as it can be both safely and responsibly secured.

265. Scotland Analysis: Defence, UK Government, p32.

266. Disarming Trident - A practical guide to de-activating and dismantling the Scottish-based Trident nuclear weapons system, Scottish CND, June 2012.

267. Cancelling Trident - The Economic And Employment Consequences For Scotland. http://www.stuc.org.uk/files/STUC%20-%20CND%20Trident%20Report%202007/STUC-CND%20Trident%20Report.pdf

268. Scotland Analysis: Defence, UK Government, p41. The Westminster Government defines single use military equipment as that "which only has a military use, such as warships, fighting vehicles and fighter aircraft."

269. The Westminster Government has set out a 10-year defence equipment plan including almost £160 billion of procurement. Joint arrangements would support delivery of this plan without the direct contribution of Scottish tax receipts.

270. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Justice/public-safety/17141/cashback

271. Scottish Government: Crime and Justice Survey 2010-11 Main Findings (2011) - 74% of adults thought that the local crime rate stayed the same or improved in their local area in 2010-11, an increase from 71% in 2009-10. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2011/10/28142346/0

272. Scottish Government: Recorded Crime in Scotland 2012-13, (2013). http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/06/9697

273. Scottish Government: Homicide in Scotland 2012-13, (2013). http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0043/00435280.pdf

274. Scottish Government: Recorded Crime in Scotland 2012-13, (2013). http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/06/9697

275. Scottish Government: Police Officer Quarterly Strength Statistics 30 June 2013, (2013). http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Crime-Justice/PublicationPoliceStrength/POQS2013Q2

276. Scottish Government: Letting Our Communities Flourish. (2009): http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2009/06/01144911/0

277. For example, the principles set out by the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF) in Overseeing Intelligence Services: A Toolkit. http://www.dcaf.ch/Publications/Overseeing-Intelligence-Services-A-Toolkit. DCAF is an international foundation whose mission is to assist the international community in pursuing good governance and reform of the security sector.

278. Scottish Government: What Works to Reduce Reoffending: A Summary of the Evidence. (2011). http://scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0038/00385880.pdf

279. http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20100921035225/http:/northreview.independent.gov.uk/

280. Scottish Health Survey 2012 - Summary of Main Findings (2013): http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/09/4693/1

281. http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/culture-media-and-sport-committee/news/120724-gambling-report-publication/

282. Scottish Government: Scottish Crime and Justice Survey Drug Use Report 2010-11. (2012). http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2012/03/2775/5

283. Scottish Schools Adolescent Lifestyle and Substance Misuse Survey (SALSUS) National Report (2010). http://www.drugmisuse.isdscotland.org/publications/local/SALSUS_2010.pdf

284. Including Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland.

285. The plans set out here are based on a process of policy development by the Scottish Government that has drawn appropriately on expert advice at a number of stages. The process involved development of an underpinning framework for defence and security policy, based on an understanding of Scotland's geopolitical context and analysis of threats and risk. Plans for specific defence and security capabilities were then developed based on that framework, drawing on a range of expert inputs.

286. As indicated by Professor Sir David Omand, evidence at Foreign Affairs Committee 4 December 2012: "It is part of our history that we helped both Australia and Canada develop significant capability over a period of very many years".

287. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2011/03/21095856/0

288. HM Government, October 2013, Scotland analysis: Security. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/scotland-analysis-security

289. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2000/23/contents and http://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2000/11/section/31

290. Intelligence Services Commissioner, the Interception of Communications Commissioner, and the Office of the Surveillance Commissioners.

291. For example, the principles set out by the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF) in Overseeing Intelligence Services: A Toolkit. http://www.dcaf.ch/Publications/Overseeing-Intelligence-Services-A-Toolkit

292. The control principle is that intelligence received from another country must not be passed on to a third party country without the originating country's consent. The importance of this was highlighted, for example, by the Intelligence and Security Committee in their Annual Report 2011-12 (paragraph 154): "whilst UK Agencies are given foreign intelligence material by those with whom they co-operate, it does not then belong to us and is not ours to do with as we wish. It is not therefore up to the UK to decide who else we might share it with - that decision rests with the country that 'owns' the material". http://isc.independent.gov.uk/committee-reports/annual-reports.

293. Security and Intelligence Agencies: Financial Statement 2012-13. http://www.official-documents.gov.uk/document/hc1314/hc00/0027/0027.pdf

294. ONS/NRS (2013) 2012-based population projections.

295. http://www.scotland.org/study-in-scotland/why-study-in-scotland

296. Habitually resident is a term used in international law including the European convention on Nationality. The term has been equated with the term "ordinarily resident" which is currently used to define "settled in the UK" in the British Nationality Act 1981. [Note: "settled" is defined by the British Nationality Act 1981 as requiring ordinary residence AND without being subject under immigration laws to any restriction on the period for which the person may remain i.e. a person with indefinite leave to remain.] The test for ordinary residence is satisfied where the person has habitually and normally resided for a settled purpose apart from temporary or occasional absences. "Settled purpose" is defined as one which has "a sufficient degree of continuity to be properly described as settled".

297. Highlands and Islands Enterprise, A Minimum Income Standard for Remote Rural Scotland. www.hie.co.uk/regional-information/economic-reports-and-research/archive/a-minimum-income-standard-for-remote-rural-scotland.html

298. Scottish Government, Economic Report on Scottish Agriculture 2013, Section 2 - Geography and Structure. www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/06/5219/3

299. Scottish Agricultural Census. www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/10/5891

300. Comparison of Scotland's rate per hectare of €130 with rates in other Member States. http://register.consilium.europa.eu/pdf/en/11/st12/st12734.en11.pdf

301. Table CAP Pillar 1 - Scottish Government, Common Agricultural Policy Payments. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/farmingrural/Agriculture/CAP/cap-resources/CAP-payments See also in the Environment, Rural Scotland, Energy and Resources section of the Q&A.

302. Table CAP Pillar 2 - Comparison of 2007-2013 Scottish per hectare average to average Rural Development funding across EU. http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/statistics/rural-development/2012/full-text_en.pdf and Eurostat area statistics. See also in the Environment, Rural Scotland, Energy and Resources section of the Q&A.

303. Scottish Government, CAP budget negotiations - the facts. www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/farmingrural/Agriculture/CAP/CAPEurope10112012/budget-facts31102012

304. See http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/farmingrural/Agriculture/CAP/cap-resources/CAP-payments

305. Eurostat: 2011 Utilized agricultural area (UAA).

306. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/committees/en/studiesdownload.html?languageDocument=EN&file=94213

307. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/committees/en/studiesdownload.html?languageDocument=EN&file=94213

308. Key Stocks' are the most valuable quota stocks of the three species types: demersal, pelagic and shellfish. These include the North Sea and West of Scotland quota stocks for Cod, Haddock, Monkfish, Nephrops, Herring and Mackerel. Scottish Government, Scottish Sea Fisheries Statistics 2012. www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/09/2502/downloads

309. 55m euros of a total EFF budget of 4.3bn euros.

310. Total EU landings 2010 4.9m tonnes (source Eurostat); total landings by Scottish vessels 2010 367,400 tonnes (source Scottish Sea Fisheries Statistics): 7.48 per cent of EU total.

311. Total EU aquaculture production 2009 1.3m tonnes (latest figures, source Eurostat); total Scottish aquaculture production 2009, 158,000 tonnes (source Marine Scotland): 11.9 per cent of EU total.

312. Scottish aquaculture production 167,000 tonnes out of a UK total of 201,000 tonnes (2010, source DEFRA).

313. Drink exports are defined as exports of Scotch Whisky from the UK.

314. HMRC Overseas and Regional Trade Statistics. www.uktradeinfo.com/Pages/Home.aspx

315. Scotch Whisky Association. www.scotch-whisky.org.uk/what-we-do/facts-figures/

316. Scottish Government Growth Sector Database. www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/Publications/GrowthSectors/Database

317. Scottish Global Connections Survey. www.scotland.gov.uk/topics/statistics/browse/economy/exports/GCSIntroduction

318. GVA statistics are available for Scotland as a whole and on a regional basis. They are not available for individual local authorities or according to the Scottish Government urban rural classification. Rural GVA figures are therefore estimated by classifying NUTS 3 regions into rural regions and the rest of Scotland regions. These figures are based on the Office for National Statistics Regional Accounts GVA in current basic prices. Further details on this calculation can be found on the following paper: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2010/07/30093457/0

319. Citizen's Advice Scotland (2012), The Postcode Penalty. www.cas.org.uk/publications/postcode-penalty

320. Scottish Government: www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Releases/2013/06/landreform07062013

321. Rural Development in the EU Statistical and Economic Information Report 2012. http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/statistics/rural-development/2012/full-text_en.pdf

322. Rural Development National Strategy Plan 2007-2013 - United Kingdom. www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2010/11/19093802/5. The 443m euro figure quoted is the total in the Scotland table (679m) minus the 'Voluntary modulation for the UK" in the Scotland table (236m). This deduction enables comparison to be made with the EU allocation for other countries.

323. Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009. www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2009/12/contents

324. EEA Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data Viewer. http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/data-viewers/greenhouse-gases-viewer. Greenhouse Gas Inventories for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland 1990-2011. http://naei.defra.gov.uk/reports/reports?report_id=756

325. Scottish Government, Low Carbon Scotland - Meeting our Emissions Reduction Targets 2013-2027, the second Report on Proposals and Policies. www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Environment/climatechange/scotlands-action/lowcarbon/meetingthetargets

326. Ofgem Spare Capacity Margin projections 2013.

327. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/davey-announces-29-billion-boost-to-economy-and-makes-the-case-for-scotland-to-remain-in-the-united-kingdom UK Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC), July 2012

328. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/06/5757

329. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00415411.pdf

330. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Business-Industry/Energy/resources/ExpertCommission

331. UKCS Maximising Recovery Review - Wood Review. www.woodreview.co.uk/documents/UKCS_Maximising_Recovery_Review_Interim_Report_11.11.13_LOCKED.PDF

332. For a discussion of international examples of stabilisation funds and sovereign wealth funds, see Fiscal Commission Working Group (2013) - Stabilisation and Savings Funds For Scotland. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/10/7805

333. Scottish Government (2013) - Scottish National Accounts Project.

334. FTSE 100 Factsheet, 30 April 2013.

335. Elsewhere in this guide, the term "North Sea" refers to the UK Continental Shelf. References to the Scottish share of the North Sea are based on the median line principle as employed in 1999 to determine the boundary between Scotland and the rest of the UK for fishery demarcation purposes. A map showing this boundary can be found at figure 4.1 of the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland 2011-2012 Report. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/03/1859/6. Discussion of alternative methods of demarcation can be found at paragraphs 3.16 to 3.18 of Maximising Return from Oil and Gas in an Independent Scotland. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0042/00428074.pdf

336. For a further discussion of oil and gas reserves in Scotland see the Scottish Government March 2013 Oil and Gas Analytical Bulletin.

337. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/07/5746

338. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0043/00435303.pdf

339. The BBC Trust's Review and Assessment 2012, page 35, available at http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/annualreport/pdf/2012-13/bbc-bbctrust-annualreport-review-and-assessment-2012-13.pdf

340. Public Attitudes to Broadcasting in Scotland available at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2010/01/21104900/0

341. UK Trade & Investment/PACT UK Television Exports 2012 available at http://www.pact.co.uk/support/document-library/television-exports-report-2012/

342. MG Alba Annual report 2012-13, page 24, available at http://www.mgalba.com/downloads/reports/annual-report-12-13.pdf; Scottish Government News Release of 26 September 2013 available at http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/A-f%C3%A0s-le-G%C3%A0idhlig-48b.aspx

343. The Availability of Communications Services in the UK, 2013. http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/binaries/research/markets-infrastructure/economic-geography.pdf

344. Glasgow is a UNESCO City of Music, Edinburgh is the world's first designated UNESCO City of Literature, and Scotland is home to five UNESCO World Heritage Sites, with the Forth Bridge due to be nominated as a sixth in 2014.

345. http://www.scottishten.org/

346. Growth Sector Database, Scottish Government - Table 2.2. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/Publications/GrowthSectors/Database

347. Economic Impact of the Historic Environment in Scotland - A Final Report by ECOTEC for the Historic Advisory Council for Scotland, pages 3-4, available at http://www.heacs.org.uk/documents/2009/ecotec.pdf

348. http://www.museumsgalleriesscotland.org.uk/research-and-resources/resources/publications/publication/503/economic-data-for-the-museums-galleries-scotland-national-strategy
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/Publications/GrowthSectors/Database

349. Edinburgh Festivals Impact Study Final Report May 2011. BOP Consulting. http://www.eventscotland.org/funding-and-resources/downloads/get/56

350. http://makeabignoise.org.uk/sistema-scotland/

351. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/05/1373/0

352. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Speeches/Culture-Heritage05062013

353. BBC commercial ventures combined profit before interest and tax was £155 million in 2012/13, and £222 million in 2011/12. Scotland's population share would therefore be around £13 million to £19 million. Page 4. http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/annualreport/pdf/2012-13/bbc-annualreport-complete-2012-13.pdf

354. The arrangement could be similar to STV and ITV or that between the German broadcaster Arbeitsgemeinschaft der šffentlich-rechtlichen Rundfunkanstalten der Bundesrepublik Deutschland (ARD) and regional public service broadcasters in Germany.

355. http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/binaries/consultations/renewal-c4-licence/summary/c4.pdf

356. OFCOM Communications Market Report 2013. Scotland. http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/binaries/research/cmr/cmr13/Scotland_2.pdf

357. See http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00415411.pdf.

358. £410 million is made up of £284 million from public sector sources (Scottish Government, ERDF, Department for Culture, Media and Sport, and all of Scotland's local authorities) and £126 million from BT.

359. http://www.pts.se/upload/Faktablad/En/Factsheet_3G_Sweden.pdf

360. Ofcom Communication Market Report 2010: Scotland. http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/market-data-research/market-data/communications-market-reports/cmr10/scotland/

361. Digital Agenda Scoreboard 2013: Commission Staff Working Document. https://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/sites/digital-agenda/files/DAE%20SCOREBOARD%202013%20-%20SWD%202013%20217%20FINAL.pdf

362. The Availability of Communications Services in the UK, 2013. http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/binaries/research/markets-infrastructure/economic-geography.pdf

363. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/09/6141

364. http://maps.ofcom.org.uk/mobile-services/

365. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00415411.pdf

366. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/scotland-analysis-business-and-microeconomic-framework

367. https://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/en/news/communication-commission-european-parliament-council-european-economic-and-social-committee-a-0

368. The Governments formed in 1945, 1950, 1951 and 1955 (two Labour and two Conservative) each won between 35 and 37 of Scotland's 71 seats. In contrast, the Conservative Governments between 1979 and 1997 won 22 out of 71, 21 out of 72, 10 out of 72 and 11 out of 72 Scotland seats while the current Coalition Government won 12 out of 59 seats.

369. In the October 1964 election, instead of a Labour majority, there would have been a hung Parliament with 279 Conservative MPs and 274 Labour MPs. In the February 1974 election, instead of a Labour minority government there would have been a hung Parliament with 276 Conservative MPs and 261 Labour MPs.

370. The Conservatives won 16.7% of the vote in Scotland in 2010.

371. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2012/11/contents/enacted

372. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/Government/concordats/Referendum-on-independence

373. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/02/3017

374. UK Whole of Government Accounts 2011-12.

375. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0043/00434502.pdf

376. Fiscal Commission Working Group (2013) - First Report - Macroeconomic Framework. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00414291.pdf; see pages 169-174.

377. By the Succession to the Crown Act 2013

378. Although the Scottish Parliament has some powers to legislate in relation to human rights and to take action to encourage and promote equal opportunities, key existing statutes such as the Human Rights Act 1998 or the Equality Act 2010 are reserved.

379. For example the Convention on the Elimination of all forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW), the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD) and the Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC).

380. National Public Bodies Directory. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Government/public-bodies/about/Bodies

381. Public Sector Employment in Scotland - Q2 2013. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/09/2277

382. Source: Scottish Government, (June 2013) Police Officer Quarterly Strength Statistics Scotland, Change since 2007

383. Source: Information Services Division, (August 2013) NHS Scotland Workforce. Change since 2007.

384. Public Sector Employment in Scotland - Q2 2013. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/09/2277

385. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/Review/publicservicescommission

386. http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/Lerwick-Declaration-2a7.aspx

387. Article 2: http://www.conventions.coe.int/Treaty/en/Treaties/Html/122.htm