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Low Carbon Scotland: Meeting our Emissions Reduction Targets 2013-2027 - The Draft Second Report on Proposals and Policies


2. Background and context

2.1 A whole Government approach

2.1.1 Tackling climate change in respect of leadership, policy, regulatory frameworks and project delivery is the responsibility of every part of the Scottish Government, its agencies, and local government. We are setting long term consistent and stable policy frameworks, working to ensure we understand how these relate to and impact on different parts of the Scottish economy and society.

2.1.2 We are working to maximise synergies, ensuring that all major policy initiatives take into account climate change impacts. We are taking action on our own estates, as well as maximising investment opportunities for low carbon activity through our procurement processes. The Public Bodies Climate Change Duties[17] in the Climate Change (Scotland) Act provide the statutory underpinning for action by public bodies relating to a number of these aspects.

Scotland's Procurement Reform Bill

Scotland's Procurement Reform Bill[18] will establish a national legislative framework for sustainable public procurement that supports sustainable economic growth by delivering community benefits, supporting innovation, and considering environmental requirements. The Bill will also promote public procurement processes and systems that are transparent, streamlined, standardised, proportionate, fair and business friendly.

2.2 Our guiding principles

2.2.1 We are determined to tackle climate change in a way that both benefits and includes the people of Scotland. To do this, we have a number of principles to guide our approach.

2.2.2 Sustainable. Sustainable development is integral to the Scottish Government's purpose. As we develop and implement emission reduction policies we will follow the five broad principles of sustainability:

  • living within environmental limits;
  • a strong, healthy and just society;
  • a sustainable economy;
  • promotion of good governance; and
  • responsible use of sound science.

The agenda for cities

As set out in the Agenda for Cities,[19] Scottish cities recognise the importance of sustainability and are keen to make the transition to a low carbon economy in a way which maximises economic benefits. As part of a range of measures, the Scottish Cities Alliance is considering carrying out "Mini Stern" reviews for each city that identify bespoke as well as collaborative opportunities for investment.

2.2.3 Cost effective. Where there are choices within and between policies, we will choose the most cost effective options, minimising costs to businesses, public organisations and households. This approach is explained in more detail in the funding and financing section later in the document.

2.2.4 Portfolio of diverse technologies. While we intend to choose the most cost effective mix of technologies and approaches in any sector, the reality is that, in many cases, we do not yet know how technologies will develop, or how their costs will change or what other disruptive technologies might emerge. We aim, where reasonable and practical, to encourage a portfolio of technologies and create competitive market conditions in which the most sustainable and cost effective succeed over time.

2.2.5 Inclusive. We will continue to work for and with the people of Scotland. We will consult, we will listen, and we will continue to learn from households, communities, non-government organisations, public sector partners, and businesses and industry as we adapt to new ways of doing things. The transition to a low carbon Scotland will involve all of us working together. Indeed, the Scottish Government is grateful for the engagement by the stakeholder community in the preparation of this draft RPP2.[20]

2.2.6 Fair. Changing the way we do things, alongside our adoption of new technologies, will involve costs and benefits for many people. We will ensure that costs and benefits are distributed fairly, and pay special attention to the least well off in our communities, as well as minimising any unnecessary burdens on businesses and the third sector. Equalities impact assessments and individual business and regulatory impact assessments are part of the formal processes for implementing this principle.

2.2.7 Transparent. The transition to a low carbon Scotland will involve some disruption and significant change although these are required to avoid even greater disruption and damaging change likely if global temperature rises exceed 2 °C. We will ensure that where possible, our assumptions, our data, and our decision making processes are clear and accessible as we work through the transition. The Technical Annex to this report provides the main assumptions behind the data in the tables in this report.

2.3 The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 - statutory duties

2.3.1 The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 ('the Act') sets targets to reduce Scotland's emissions of the basket of six Kyoto Protocol greenhouse gases[21] by at least 42% by 2020 and 80% by 2050, compared to the 1990/1995 baseline. As well as domestic emissions, Scotland's share of emissions from international aviation and shipping are included in the targets, unlike the UK Government which has deferred a decision on including aviation and shipping in its own targets until 2016.

2.3.2 The Act requires Scottish Ministers to set annual targets for emissions at least 12 years in advance. In October 2010, the Scottish Parliament passed legislation setting the first batch of annual targets, for the years 2010 to 2022. One year later, the Scottish Parliament passed subsequent legislation setting the second batch of annual targets, for the years 2023 to 2027.[22] Details of the targets are at section 2.4 below.

2.3.3 The Act requires that, as soon as reasonably practicable after setting a batch of annual targets, Ministers publish a report setting out proposals and policies for meeting those targets. This draft RPP2 lays out how Scotland can deliver annual targets for reductions in emissions from 2013 to 2027. It sets the strategic direction towards further reductions in emissions of 80% in 2050. The trajectory towards 80% will likely result in a target of around 60% in 2030.[23] Currently no 2030 target has been set for EU emissions, and Scotland will push the EU to demonstrate high ambition for 2030.

2.3.4 The Act requires that the report details progress on implementation of previous Reports on Proposals and Policies - in this case Low Carbon Scotland: Meeting the Emissions Reduction Targets 2010-2022 (RPP1) [24], published in 2011. The analysis in this draft RPP2 shows that, based on assumptions set out in the report, we are on track to meet our targets and how, with concerted effort across the board, they could be met in each year up to 2027.

Parliamentary scrutiny and revision

This draft report was laid in the Scottish Parliament on 29 January 2013, and is subject to a 60-day period for Parliamentary consideration.

Before finalising RPP2, Ministers must have regard to any representations on the draft report, any resolution on the draft passed by the Scottish Parliament, and any report on the draft published by any Committees of the Parliament.

We plan to lay the final version of RPP2 in Parliament by the summer of 2013.

2.4 The greenhouse gas emission reduction targets 2013-2027

2.4.1 The targets, set out in the table below, are expressed in tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). Percentages have been adjusted to use the 1990 baseline from the latest 2010 Greenhouse Gas Inventory. Scotland's targets use the level of emissions in 1990 (for carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) and 1995 (for fluorine-based gases) as the baseline from which reductions are calculated.

Table 1.2: Greenhouse gas emission reduction targets

Target Year Annual targets expressed in tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) % emissions reduction required year on year % reduction against 1990 baseline when targets were set (2008 GHG Inventory) % reduction against 1990 baseline using latest data
(2010 GHG Inventory)[25]
2010 53,652,000 N/A -23.57% -25.79%
2011 53,404,000 -0.46% -23.93% -26.11%
2012 53,226,000 -0.33% -24.18% -26.36%
2013 47,976,000 -9.86%[26] -31.66% -33.62%
2014 46,958,000 -2.12% -33.11% -35.03%
2015 45,928,000 -2.19% -34.58% -36.45%
2016 44,933,000 -2.17% -35.99% -37.83%
2017 43,946,000 -2.20% -37.40% -39.20%
2018 42,966,000 -2.23% -38.80% -40.55%
2019 41,976,000 -2.30% -40.21% -41.92%
2020 40,717,000 -3.00% -42.00% -43.66%
2021 39,495,000 -3.00% -43.74% -45.36%
2022 38,310,000 -3.00% -45.43% -46.99%
2023 37,161,000 -3.00% -47.06% -48.58%
2024 35,787,000 -3.70% -49.02% -50.49%
2025 34,117,000 -4.70% -51.40% -52.80%
2026 32,446,000 -4.90% -53.78% -55.11%
2027 30,777,000 -5.10% -56.16% -57.42%

2.4.2 As discussed further below, the methodology that underpins the Scottish Greenhouse Gas Inventory is under continual review in order to improve its accuracy. Each amendment to the Inventory is calculated back to 1990. This means that when the Inventory is published each year, Scotland's 1990/1995 baseline is updated.

2.4.3 The effect of this is that the total quantity of emissions that need to be abated to meet the annual targets can vary depending on the baseline. For example, the annual targets for 2010 to 2022 were set using the baseline from the 2008 Inventory and the 2020 target (requiring that emissions not exceed 40.717 MtCO2e) equated to a 42% reduction on this basis. However, the baseline in the current 2010 Inventory is slightly higher than the equivalent calculation two years previously. The result is that the 2020 annual target now equates to a 43.66% reduction in emissions.

2.5 Estimating emissions reductions: business-as-usual profile

2.5.1 To quantify the effect of policies and proposals in reducing emissions, and thus the contributions to the reduction targets, we need to consider what would happen to future emissions in the absence of such interventions. The 'business-as-usual' (BAU) emissions profile provides an estimate of future annual emissions out to 2027 under assumptions on factors such as economic growth, fuel prices, projected growth in both the population and number of households. The emissions reduction (abatement) from policies and proposals is then subtracted from the BAU to calculate what future emissions are likely to be with policies and proposals in place.

Chart 1.1: Business as usual emissions profile

Chart 1.1: Business as usual emissions profile

2.5.2 For the purposes of this report, a BAU emissions profile has been developed for the non traded sector, against which the abatement from policies and proposals is deducted. The traded sector is presented as a net-emissions profile. (Further information on these sectors is in section 2.7 below). Emissions in the traded sector are calculated on the basis of two scenarios to 2020, which merge into the same scenario thereafter:

  • Under the ETS 20% scenario for the period to 2020, we use the existing trajectory for the ETS based on Scotland's share of the EU‑wide reduction in emissions of 20% by 2020 on the 2005 baseline used by the ETS. This is the current legislative requirement, and forms the basis for measuring Scotland's "traded" sector emissions on an annual basis.
  • Under the ETS 30% scenario for the period to 2020, we use the trajectory for the ETS based on Scotland's share of the EU‑wide reduction in emissions of 30% by 2020 on the 2005 baseline. This trajectory was described in full in RPP1 and remains our policy objective.
  • Specific details regarding the EU ETS for the period beyond 2020 have not yet been established. Rather than base our calculation on a Scottish share of a nominal ETS trajectory, after 2020 the traded sector is presented in this report as 'net emissions' based on estimates of direct future electricity generation emissions in Scotland and from the CCC target advice that identifies abatement from other non-electricity generation installations within the traded sector.

2.6 The Committee on Climate Change target advice

2.6.1 The BAU is important not only for understanding the effects of our policies and proposals, but also, critically, for how the reduction targets were set. The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) provides independent expert advice to government about all aspects of climate change. The 2023-2027 annual emission reduction targets were informed by advice published by the CCC in 2011. Whilst this report draws in part on the CCC's advice, since its publication, new emissions data and projections have become available which provide more up to date insights into future Scottish emissions and the abatement required to meet annual targets.

2.6.2 Chart 2.1 shows the non-traded sector BAU projection used by the CCC in its target advice to the Scottish Government in 2011 and the higher, more up to date, emissions profile that is used in this report. Importantly, the amount of abatement that this draft RPP2 indicates is required to meet the annual targets is much greater than that needed in the CCC advice. In 2027, this difference amounts to some 4.1MtCO2e. Scotland therefore needs to outperform the emissions abatement the CCC suggested would be necessary in order to meet the targets.

Chart 2.1: Non-traded sector BAU projection used by the CCC

Chart 2.1: Non-traded sector BAU projection used by the CCC

Measuring our progress

Achievement of Scotland's targets is measured against the level of the Net Scottish Emissions Account (NSEA). This accounts for the greenhouse gas emissions from sources in Scotland, Scotland's share of emissions from international aviation and international shipping, the effect of any relevant emissions sequestration (e.g. "carbon sinks" such as woodland) and the effect of the sale and purchase of relevant emissions allowances.

Scotland's emissions are disaggregated from UK data and are reported annually in the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland[27]. Regulations set down in detail how the NSEA will be calculated from the disaggregated Inventory[28].

2.7 Explaining the traded and non-traded sectors

2.7.1 The official source of greenhouse gas emissions data that is used by the Scottish Government is the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI). The NAEI compiles estimates of emissions to the atmosphere from UK sources and is used as the basis for setting the Scottish annual climate change targets and for assessing progress against the targets.

2.7.2 The advent of the EU ETS in 2005 meant that emissions were split into those accounted for in the 'non-traded' sector and those in the 'traded' sector. The non-traded includes greenhouse gas emissions captured in the NAEI in Scotland that do not fall under the EU ETS. They can be disaggregated into the following sources of emissions: residential, non-traded business, industry and public sector, transport, agriculture and related land use, forestry, waste sector, and development (land use). Traded sector emissions include emissions from the generation of electricity, energy intensive business and industrial processes such as production of steel and iron, and energy intensive parts of the public sector such as large hospitals.[29] The trading scheme exists so that organisations have to pay for the CO2e they emit and so acts as an incentive for them to reduce their emissions. The EU ETS enters its third phase in 2013 and aims by 2020 to reduce EU wide emissions by 20% compared to emissions in 2005.

The role of the EU ETS and the traded sector

2.7.3 The EU ETS, is implemented at the Member State level and Scotland participates in the ETS as part of the UK. The cap and trade nature of the scheme is designed so that emission reductions takes place in the most cost effective manner, thus encouraging operators to invest in low emission technologies and techniques, such as more energy efficient equipment or less emission intensive energy sources.

2.7.4 The scheme is focussed on large, energy intensive installations as well as all emissions from flights arriving at and flying from European airports from the start of 2012. As part of on-going international negotiations the European Commissions has implemented a 'stop the clock' proposal on flights into and out of Europe, see section 7.4 for further details. Industry participants include cement and glass manufacturing as well as some distilleries. In Scotland there are 110 operators from a variety of sectors, which emitted approximately 24MtCO2e in 2010. Most operators receive a set number of free EU Allowances (EUA), with each EUA covering one tonne of CO2e, and must trade or buy at auction any additional EUAs they require. As there is a set number of total EUA's within the market, the overall environmental targets are maintained.

2.7.5 The current EUA price is lower than had been expected, due mostly to the global economic downturn, and this has resulted in a smaller incentive to reduce emissions. Scottish Government officials are working closely with the UK Government's Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) to engage with the European Commission on potential structural reforms that could create a more effective EUA price.

2.7.6 The Commission has recently proposed to address this in the short term by adjusting the timing in which allowances are introduced to the market (through a process of 'back-loading'). This would alter the auctioning timetable and reduce the numbers of allowances auctioned in the early part of Phase III (2013-2020), and re-introduce them near the end of the Phase (in 2019-2020). The Commission's recent Carbon Market Report[30] provides an outline of six measures that would lead to longer-term structural reform:

  • an EU 30% greenhouse gas reduction target for 2020;
  • the permanent cancellation of allowances;
  • a change to the annual linear reduction factor;
  • the inclusion of extra sectors;
  • a review of inclusion of international project credits; and
  • the establishment of price management mechanisms.

2.7.7 The Scottish Government has welcomed publication of the report as part of our push for the EU to raise its 2020 greenhouse gas emission reduction target to 30%, which would be consistent with our own domestic target of 42%. While a number of Member states are opposed to any further structural reforms of the ETS, and to the EU raising its 2020 target to 30%, the Scottish Government will continue to work strongly in support of efforts to reform to ensure the ETS delivers the policy and regulatory certainty to investors to incentivise cost-efficient emissions reduction in line with our own domestic targets. The Commission will also publish a new Communication during 2013 on an EU greenhouse gas reduction target for 2030 (the figure given in the Commission's (2011) Low Carbon Roadmap 2050 was 40%).

2.8 The emissions abatement trajectory

2.8.1 A full year by year breakdown of the estimated emissions impact of proposals and policies is shown in Annexes A and B at the end of this document. The analysis shows that:

  • Our policies and proposals give us significantly more abatement than the Committee on Climate Change suggested is both an appropriate global contribution from Scotland and in line with our potential.
  • By the mid-2020s, despite the lack of progress in strengthening the EU 2020 emissions target, the amount of our planned non-traded abatement is approximately 2MtCO2e a year greater than the Climate Change Committee recommendation.
  • Working from the original projections used by the Climate Change Committee in giving the Scottish Government advice on the level of annual targets, we would meet the annual targets in all years, even if the EU retains a 20% emissions cap rather than moving to a 30% one.
  • However, our latest data and analytical models give us a higher non-traded business as usual (baseline) than the Climate Change Committee originally provided. In 2027, this amounts to 4.1MtCO2e more than the CCC BAU.
  • Using projections based on this new, more up to date work, in effect makes the targets set under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act more difficult to achieve. However, the package of proposals and policies set out in this draft RPP2 has the potential to deliver emissions abatement that would meet all of the annual targets set to 2027 in circumstances where the EU strengthens its Emissions Trading System in line with an EU-wide emissions reduction target of 30% for 2020. If the EU ETS does not make this contribution, our proposals and policies could still meet all of the targets after 2020 as the energy generation sector decarbonises.

2.8.2 Annex B presents information on the extent to which project that we will either undershoot or overshot the annual targets in each year on the assumption of either a 20% or 30% EU emissions cap. Chart 2.2 illustrates how this achieved with a 30% cap. The Business as Usual projection line is shown at the top of the chart; our policies are then subtracted to give net emissions after the delivery of policies; finally our proposals are subtracted to give net emissions after delivery of policies and proposals.

Chart 2.2: Projected emissions and annual targets with EU 30% Emissions Cap

Chart 2.2: Projected emissions and annual targets with EU 30% Emissions Cap

2.8.3 When the Climate Change (Scotland) Bill was being debated in the Scottish Parliament in 2008 it was widely acknowledged that an increased contribution from the EU Emissions Trading System, stemming from an increase in the EU 2020 emissions target from 20% to 30%, was very important for meeting the extended level of ambition represented by the Scottish 42% target set for 2020. However, the subsequent economic downturn and disappointing progress at international climate change negotiations have made such a move by the EU more difficult to achieve consensus around.

2.8.4 While we have set out policies and proposals to further enhance domestic effort, as stated previously, our policy remains that the EU should move to 30% as this is what is required as part of a global effort to avoid dangerous climate change. The Scottish Government supports the UK and other progressive Member States in their efforts to persuade the EU to increase its 2020 emissions reduction target above 20% unilaterally. We will review this position during the production of RPP3.

2.9 The domestic effort target

2.9.1 The Act places a duty on Scottish Ministers to ensure that reductions in net Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases account for at least 80% of the reduction in the net Scottish emissions account (NSEA) in any target year. The domestic effort target limits the quantity of carbon units (i.e. tradable emissions allowances) that Scottish Ministers may use to reduce the NSEA in any target year. The exception is carbon units surrendered by participants in the EU ETS which are accounted for in line with international practice.

2.9.2 While it remains an option for consideration, in line with previous commitments, we have no proposals or policies to purchase carbon units in this draft RPP2. Our focus is on measures that seek to reduce our emissions at source and for the long term. We intend, therefore, that the measures in this draft RPP2 will be consistent with meeting the domestic effort target in each target year even though this makes the tasks against which the Scottish Government will be judged even tougher.

2.10 The 2010 greenhouse gas emission reduction target

2.10.1 The first annual target under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act was set for 2010 and required that the net Scottish emissions account (NSEA) (comprising net emissions and the effect of the EU Emissions Trading System) for that year not exceed 53.65 MtCO2e. The Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory for 2010 was published in 2012 and, together with data on the operation of the EU ETS in Scotland, it showed that the net Scottish emissions account for 2010 was 54.71 MtCO2e. This means that the annual emissions target for 2010 was exceeded by 1.06 MtCO2e.

2.10.2 More information about the 2010 annual target and emissions that year is contained in our formal report on the Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions Annual Target 2010,[31] published in October 2012. There were two major factors that contributed to missing the 2010 target: an increase in emissions from residential heating attributable to the extreme cold weather experienced at the start and end of 2010; and revisions to historical data.

2.10.3 The average temperature for the six months January-March and October-December 2010 was the coldest since 1919. Scotland is not alone in experiencing the impact of this cold weather. In its recent progress report for our counterparts in the Welsh Government, the CCC noted that increased demand for energy during the winter months was a major contributory factor to the emissions covered by the Welsh climate change target increasing by 6% between 2009 and 2010.[32]

2.10.4 While missing the 2010 emissions target is disappointing, annual fluctuations in emissions around a downward trend are to be expected and the long term trend shows that emissions are reducing in Scotland. The 2010 increase in greenhouse gas emissions was the first year-on-year increase since 2006 and was significantly smaller than the rise in 2006.

2.10.5 In accordance with section 36 of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009, this RPP2 sets out how the Scottish Government plans to compensate for missing the 2010 emissions target. It is our aim, where possible, to over achieve against future annual targets to recover the difference by which the 2010 target was missed. As is discussed elsewhere in this report, there are circumstances, in particular a stronger EU climate target, which would help achieve this aim more quickly. However, the collective emissions abatement potential of the package of proposals and policies in this report is such that the additional emissions in 2010 will be recovered over the period of this RPP2.

Committee on Climate Change Progress Report

The CCC submitted its first report, on the progress and activities of the Scottish Government towards meeting Scottish climate change targets, to Scottish Ministers in January 2012. This is an annual statutory requirement of the Act and one of the main mechanisms by which Scottish Ministers are held publically to account for their climate change duties.

The report focuses on the implementation of RPP1. David Kennedy, Chief Executive of the CCC said: "Good progress has been made by the Scottish Government in reducing emissions across the economy. Going forward, it will be important for the Scottish Government to continue to support the implementation of policies at both UK and national level to further cut emissions, resulting in climate change and wider economic benefits."

2.11 Definitions: policies, proposals and enabling measures

2.11.1 A policy is a course of action which has been wholly or largely decided upon. In many cases policies will have committed funding and/or legislation and timescales. Some policies are not owned by the Scottish Government (for example some European Directives or UK legislation). Many major policies (stemming from the EU) currently 'end' in 2020. Where this occurs we have made assumptions about how these might continue. These assumptions can be found in the relevant sections of the document.

2.11.2 A proposal is a suggested course of action, the details of which might change as this course of action is explored further. Some proposals are set to become firm policies once development work is completed and or financial resources allow. Other proposals could be considered more as propositions and these will be evaluated and developed if and when required to meet the targets. Wherever possible, the contribution of proposals to the achievement of the annual targets, and the costs of doing so, have been quantified. There are inevitable uncertainties in aspects of these estimates, particularly as we move towards longer time horizons.

2.11.3 A supporting and enabling measure is a measure which may not directly lead to a significant reduction in emissions, but which works mainly towards removing barriers or maximising the success of other policies.

2.11.4 These definitions are provided as guidance. Inevitably some measures will fall between them. The schedule of work to develop and implement each policy and proposal in this document will start from the position that the policy or proposal presently occupies in relevant government programmes.

2.11.5 Meeting the annual targets obviously requires different types of actions. Some of these will be strategic, involving small numbers of major sites (such as the development of carbon capture and storage) whereas others will involve relatively small changes that are population wide (for example, retrofitting energy efficiency measures in homes across Scotland or modal shift in transport use). In some cases, the action needed will be ground breaking and the result forecast, but not known for certain.

2.11.6 We are taking a non-site specific approach to identifying policies and proposals. For example, while we commit to decarbonising heat supply, we do not identify specific future district heating schemes except by way of illustration.

2.12 How we deal with costs and benefits

2.12.1 Costs and benefits can be considered both in the short and longer term. This document has been prepared during the 2012-2015 budget period. One of the three priorities of the 2013-14 budget is to accelerate economic recovery, create jobs and secure new opportunities through the low carbon economy.

2.12.2 We have provided the Scottish Parliament with a summary paper[33] outlining our proposed expenditure on climate change related activity for 2013-14 and 2014-15. Scottish Government funding for climate change activities is less than the costs outlined in this document because the costs are to society as a whole, rather than to the Government alone. In addition our current spending plans only go out to the financial year 2014-15.

2.12.3 The measures in this report create costs and benefits for government, business and private households. We estimate the costs of implementing these measures to be on average £1.6billion per annum (or 1% of GDP) while the average benefits are estimated to amount to £1.2billion (in 2011 prices) per annum. The estimated benefits are very partial and primarily reflect the increased energy efficiency resulting from the investment in climate change policies and proposals. In particular they do not include the benefits associated with reduced global warming. The Stern Report estimated that these benefits at a global level to be between five and twenty per cent of GDP. Neither do the figures include benefits such as job creation, health improvement, local air quality and biodiversity.

2.12.4 The cost figures do not include transformational investments in the electricity sector. In addition, there are some proposals for which cost estimates are not available at this stage.

2.12.5 The proposals outlined in the draft RPP2 are in many cases at the start of the policy development process. As such, a full and detailed appraisal of the costs and benefits of proposals and their distribution between government, business and households has not been undertaken yet. This will be done at an individual proposal level as and when these proposals are converted to policies.

2.13 Consumption-based emissions

2.13.1 Consumption-based emissions are all emissions attributable to the goods and services we consume in Scotland (as opposed to the domestic emissions on which our targets are based). The Act requires that Scottish Ministers report, in so far as is reasonably practicable, the emissions of greenhouse gases (whether in Scotland or elsewhere) which are produced by or otherwise associated with the consumption of goods and services in Scotland. These reports must be laid before the Scottish Parliament in respect of each year in the period 2010-2050. The reports[34] can be accessed on the Scottish Government's website.

2.13.2 Consumption-based emissions reporting is a complex and evolving field and we are working to determine the most suitable methodology on which to base our reports. In October 2009 we made available a time series (1992-2006) of the Scottish greenhouse gas footprint, including consumption estimates, which reflect this developing work.[35] Subsequently, in May 2012 we published experimental data on Scotland's greenhouse gas footprint for 2009[36].

2.13.3 This draft RPP2 focuses on policies and proposals to reduce emissions as measured against the annual targets by the NSEA. While the impact of the proposals and policies on Scotland's wider international emissions footprint has not been quantified here, the measures have been developed with the wider emissions impacts in mind. Wider, global emissions impacts can be quantified using 'consumption-based' emissions estimates and we are publishing such estimates on an annual basis. We plan to report on consumption based emissions for 2010 in 2013. Thereafter the intention is to report every three to four years to bring the time series up to date

2.13.4 We have avoided developing policies or proposals that would result in a transfer of emissions to other countries rather than a genuine reduction. For example, decreasing the numbers of Scottish livestock would be unlikely to affect the amount of meat consumed in Scotland, and would therefore result in meat being imported with emissions overseas.

2.14 Working with our partners

2.14.1 It must be emphasised that the Scottish Government cannot meet Scotland's climate change targets alone. Local government in Scotland has a pivotal role too, alongside businesses, third sector organisations, communities, families, and individuals. However, in particular, Scottish local authorities have a position of influence both as organisations that deliver services and employ large workforces, and as members of Community Planning Partnerships.[37]

2.14.2 Local authorities have demonstrated leadership on climate change with the signing of their Climate Change Declaration[38] and the inclusion of local outcomes related to climate change in Single Outcome Agreements. Local government has a key role in fulfilling the statutory obligations of the Act, as well as providing leadership to wider civil society.

Scotland's Climate Change Declaration

All Scotland's 32 local authorities have signed up to Scotland's Climate Change Declaration. Acknowledging the reality and importance of climate change, they commit to: mitigating their impact on climate change through reducing greenhouse gas emissions; taking steps to adapt to the unavoidable impacts of a changing climate; and working in partnership with their communities to respond to climate change.

The Declaration recognises that Scottish local authorities play a key role in their collective response to the challenge of climate change, and publicly demonstrates their commitment to action. Signatories do not need to have taken action on climate change to sign the Declaration, but by signing they are expected to play their part. Signatories also agree to issue an annual statement, detailing the progress of their climate change response.

The process is driven by the Sustainable Scotland Network (SSN), with support from the Scottish Government, and we will continue to work with SSN, COSLA[39] and individual local authorities to ensure the success of the initiative, aligning it with related reporting requirements in the broader public sector.

2.14.3 The 2020 Climate Group was established by Ian Marchant, Chief Executive of SSE, in 2009. It considers how Scotland's business, voluntary and public sectors can work together to help achieve Scotland's emissions reduction targets. The group is independent of Government and seeks input and guidance from the Scottish Government where appropriate. The Group published its 12 priority actions for 2012 in January and has developed 13 priorities for 2013.

2.14.4 The third sector has a central role too. Non-government organisations rally support and activity across Scotland, and in many cases act as delivery partners. There are also numerous community-based initiatives throughout Scotland demonstrating how low carbon living might be achieved - from renewable energy generation to local food production and organic markets. The Scottish Government's Climate Challenge Fund (see paragraph 5.5.3) provides grants to community groups wishing to reduce their carbon emissions and tackle climate change.

2.15 How we got here - timeline summary

Date Milestone
Scottish Government's Climate Change Delivery Plan published.
Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009.
February 2010 Committee on Climate Change (CCC) advice to the Scottish Government on the 2020 interim target and annual emissions targets 2010 - 2022.
The Climate Change (Limit on Carbon Units) (Scotland) Order 2010, setting carbon unit limits 2010 - 2012.
The Climate Change (International Aviation and Shipping) (Scotland) Order 2010.
The Carbon Accounting Scheme (Scotland) Regulations 2010.
The Climate Change Annual Targets (Scotland) Order 2010, setting annual emissions reduction targets 2010 - 2022.
November 2010 Scottish Government's Draft First Report on Proposals and Policies (RPP1) laid in the Scottish Parliament.
Scottish Government's First Report on Proposals and Policies (RPP1) published.
CCC advice to Scottish Ministers on the second batch of annual targets 2023 - 2027 received.
August 2011 CCC advice to Scottish Ministers on setting carbon unit limits 2013 - 2017 received.
October 2011 Scottish Government's Climate Change Annual Targets (Scotland) Order 2011 setting the annual emissions targets 2023 - 2027.
December 2011 The Climate Change (Limit on Carbon Units) (Scotland) Order 2011, setting carbon unit limits 2013 - 2017.
January 2012 CCC's first annual progress report, Reducing emissions in Scotland, published.
Scottish Government published Net Scottish Emissions Account for 2010.
October 2012 Scottish Government's First Annual Report, The Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions Annual Target 2010, published.
Scottish Government's draft Second Report on Proposals and Policies (RPP2) laid in the Scottish Parliament.