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Low Carbon Scotland: Meeting our Emissions Reduction Targets 2013-2027 - The Draft Second Report on Proposals and Policies

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Annex A: Greenhouse Gas Business as Usual Projections and Emissions Abatement (ktCO2e) and Cost (£m) Estimates

Business as Usual Projections 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Traded Sector Net Emissions (20% EU Target)

Includes Energy Supply

19,099 18,749 18,399 18,048 17,698 17,348 16,986 16,618 12,960 12,635 12,310 11,987 11,197 10,897 10,181
Traded Sector Net Emissions (30% EU Target)

Includes Energy Supply

18,267 17,639 17,012 16,385 15,757 15,130 14,502 13,875
Non-Traded Sector Business As Usual 29,846 29,902 30,138 30,364 30,563 30,730 31,032 31,436 31,810 32,225 32,551 32,936 33,398 33,780 34,091
Total Business As Usual Projection
(20% EU Target)
48,945 48,651 48,537 48,412 48,261 48,079 48,019 48,054 44,770 44,860 44,861 44,923 44,595 44,677 44,272
Total Business As Usual Projection
(20% EU Target)
48,113 47,541 47,150 46,748 46,320 45,860 45,535 45,311 44,770 44,860 44,861 44,923 44,595 44,677 44,272
Up to 2020, the net Scottish emissions account will measure Scotland's share of EU Emissions Trading System allowances. The overall number of allowances is assumed to be lower if the EU strengthens its 2020 target from 20% to 30%. Phase III of the EU ETS runs from 2013-2020. It is our proposal to review our emissions accounting methodology after Phase III and measure actual emissions from the traded sector.

Because of the change in methodology partway through the time series, this table differs from the other tables in this annex in that it presents an estimated scenario of actual emissions from the traded sector, which includes energy supply, rather than a projected business as usual baseline from which emissions abatement is deducted.

Homes & Communities 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Policies (emissions abatement ktCO2e)
Smart Metering 7 17 33 49 66 80 86 88 89 90 91 92 94 94 95
Domestic Buildings Energy Standards (2010) - New Build Properties 16 24 32 41 49 58 67 76 84 93 103 113 122 132 142
Renewable Heat Incentive (Domestic) 11 19 27 35 46 57 68 78 79 79 79 80 80 80 80
Energy Company Obligation (ECO) and Green Deal (GD) 13 24 33 42 52 62 89 104 114 132 132 132 132 132 132
National Retrofit Programme: Scottish Government Fuel Poverty and Energy Efficiency Programmes 59 99 137 173 207 207 207 207 207 207 207 207 207 207 207
Warm Homes Fund 7 12 17 21 25 24 23 23 23 22 22 22 22 22 22
District Heating Loan Fund 24 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36
Total Abatement from policies 138 231 315 397 481 524 576 612 631 659 670 682 692 703 713
Proposals (emissions abatement ktCO2e)
Domestic Buildings Energy Standards (2014) - New Build Properties 0 0 1 4 8 13 17 22 26 31 35 40 45 50 55
Regulation of Private and Social Housing 0 1 13 20 27 38 51 63 74 85 102 118 130 141 152
National Retrofit Programme: Insulation and Heat Programme 0 0 0 0 0 22 27 33 43 49 71 91 117 143 167
Low Carbon Heat (Domestic) 0 0 7 25 39 57 76 99 135 186 247 336 424 513 609
Additional Technical Potential in Fabric and Energy Efficiency 0 0 0 0 0 72 142 210 278 343 407 470 531 591 650
Total abatement from Proposals 0 1 21 49 74 203 314 428 555 694 861 1,055 1,248 1,438 1,634
Total abatement from Policies and Proposals 138 232 336 446 555 727 889 1,040 1,186 1,353 1,531 1,737 1,940 2,141 2,347
Total cost of Policies 405 415 392 413 418 306 305 303 300 297 155 153 150 148 146
Total cost of Proposals 0 102 133 167 162 291 290 294 304 301 438 435 431 427 424
Total cost of Policies and Proposals 405 517 524 580 580 597 595 598 593 588 581 588 581 576 571
Business, Industry & Public Sector 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Policies (emissions abatement ktCO2e)
Smart Metering 2 8 19 30 42 49 52 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46
CRC Energy Efficiency Scheme 30 41 54 68 83 98 114 130 149 169 184 200 216 187 154
Non Domestic Buildings Energy Standards (2010) - New Build Properties 13 19 25 32 38 44 51 57 63 70 76 82 89 95 101
Green Deal & Supporting Policy 2 4 18 38 58 74 85 92 97 98 73 55 41 31 24
EU Products Policy -6 -10 -7 -8 -9 -10 -11 -11 -11 -10 -10 -9 -9 -8 -8
Renewable Heat Incentive (Non Domestic) 106 171 256 375 532 641 768 896 869 849 877 893 902 909 914
Total Abatement from policies 147 233 365 535 743 896 1,060 1,217 1,220 1,227 1,250 1,270 1,288 1,260 1,231
Proposals (emissions abatement ktCO2e)
Non Domestic Buildings Energy Standards (2014) - New Build Properties 0 0 2 5 10 15 20 25 39 35 40 45 50 55 60
Assessment of Energy Performance and Emissions Regulations (Non Domestic Buildings) 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 56 70 85 99 113 128 142
Public Sector 87 109 130 152 174 195 217 239 245 252 259 265 272 278 285
Low Carbon Heat (Non Domestic) 16 74 112 116 81 95 90 101 269 459 602 777 960 1,145 1,334
Total abatement from proposals 103 189 256 290 289 335 363 406 609 816 985 1,186 1,395 1,606 1,821
Total abatement from policies and proposals 250 422 621 826 1,032 1,232 1,423 1,623 1,829 2,043 2,235 2,456 2,682 2,866 3,051
Total cost of policies (£m) 141 164 171 184 198 204 198 216 198 181 168 150 139 124 131
Total cost of proposals (£m) 24 72 91 95 81 80 75 76 157 173 188 198 207 206 232
Total cost of policies and proposals (£m) 165 236 262 278 280 284 274 291 355 355 356 348 346 331 363
Transport 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Policies (emissions abatement ktCO2e)
Decarbonising Vehicles (EU Directives) 157 267 381 500 642 810 1,009 1,243 1,328 1,408 1,483 1,553 1,619 1,676 1,727
Total Abatement from policies 157 267 381 500 642 810 1,009 1,243 1,328 1,408 1,483 1,553 1,619 1,676 1,727
Proposals (emissions abatement ktCO2e)
Decarbonising Vehicles 1 7 47 76 110 151 209 282 441 453 564 676 689 793 798
Sustainable Communities 0 12 56 70 82 103 122 139 158 179 198 219 241 259 277
Business Efficiencies 26 29 58 67 76 91 106 121 173 227 270 306 357 409 462
Network Efficiencies 2 4 31 32 33 34 35 36 35 35 34 33 33 33 32
Lower Emission Potential in Transport 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 250 500 750
Total abatement from proposals 29 52 192 245 301 379 472 578 807 894 1,066 1,234 1,570 1,994 2,319
Total abatement from policies and proposals 186 319 573 745 943 1,189 1,481 1,821 2,135 2,302 2,549 2,787 3,189 3,670 4,046
Total cost of policies (£m) 9 17 24 31 40 52 68 88 90 90 91 92 93 94 95
Total cost of proposals (£m) 47 43 168 177 181 158 141 146 151 162 127 130 137 132 134
Total cost of policies and proposals (£m) 55 59 192 208 222 210 209 233 241 252 218 222 230 226 229
Waste and Resource Efficiency 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Policies (emissions abatement ktCO2e)
Zero Waste Policies (pre May-2010) 484 533 579 622 659 693 722 748 774 795 813 827 837 856 871
Zero Waste Plan 13 26 41 58 77 97 119 141 163 185 206 228 249 270 290
Total Abatement from policies 497 559 620 680 737 790 841 889 937 980 1,019 1,055 1,086 1,126 1,161
Proposals (emissions abatement ktCO2e)
Enhanced Capture of Landfill Gas 22 44 67 90 112 133 154 163 161 158 155 151 148 144 140
Total abatement from proposals 22 44 67 90 112 133 154 163 161 158 155 151 148 144 140
Total abatement from policies and proposals 519 603 687 769 848 924 995 1,052 1,098 1,138 1,174 1,206 1,234 1,270 1,302
Total cost of policies (£m) 172 161 163 163 163 164 162 163 164 165 164 165 165 165 165
Total cost of proposals (£m) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total cost of policies and proposals (£m) 193 180 201 219 239 237 232 230 230 231 230 231 229 229 229
Rural Land Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Policies (emissions abatement ktCO2e)
Farming for a better climate 50 62 75 87 100 101 103 103 104 104 105 106 106 107 107
Increase afforestation rate to 10kh per year 15 16 45 92 144 195 248 310 373 435 477 529 582 634 687
Total Abatement from policies 65 78 120 179 244 296 351 413 477 539 582 635 688 741 794
Proposals (emissions abatement ktCO2e)
90% Uptake of Fertiliser Efficiency Measures 0 0 0 0 0 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260
Developments in agricultural technology
from 2020
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310
Accelerated restoration of degraded peatland 0 9 25 47 73 104 139 177 218 263 309 358 410 462 515
Wood First - Timber Construction Programme 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 89 89 89 89 125 125
Additional technical potential from low carbon land use 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 250 500 750
Total abatement from proposals 0 9 25 47 73 364 399 747 788 922 968 1,017 1,319 1,657 1,960
Total abatement from policies and proposals 65 87 145 226 317 660 749 1,160 1,265 1,461 1,550 1,652 2,007 2,397 2,754
Total cost of RLU policies (£m) 36 41 47 49 51 53 55 56 57 59 59 60 60 60 60
Total cost of RLU proposals (£m) 19 18 17 16 16 16 16 321 321 361 321 321 328 318 318
Total cost of RLU policies and proposals (£m) 55 59 64 65 67 69 71 377 378 420 380 381 388 378 378