We are testing a new beta website for gov.scot go to new site

Changing Scotland's Relationship with Alcohol: A Framework for Action

Listen

ANNEX B - Extract from Independent Review of the effects of Alcohol Pricing and Promotion, based on modelling work for England, by ScHARR, University of Sheffield14

Minimum price per unit

Effect on consumption

Minimum pricing for a bottle of wine (75cl at 13% ABV)

Minimum price for a 6 pack of standard lager (6x44cl at 4% ABV

Minimum pricing for white cider (2l at 7.5% ABV)

Minimum price for vodka (70cl at 37.5% ABV

Minimum pricing for Scotch Whisky (70cl at 40% ABV)

30p

-0.6%

£2.93

£3.17

£4.50

£7.88

£8.40

35p

-1.4%

£3.41

£3.70

£5.25

£9.19

£9.80

40p

-2.6%

£3.90

£4.22

£6.00

£10.50

£11.20

45p

-4.5%

£4.39

£4.75

£6.75

£11.81

£12.60

Key findings for England for a minimum price of 40p per unit:

  • Overall weekly consumption reduces by -2.6%. Consumption is estimated to reduce by on average 22 units per person per year.
  • Consumption changes are greatest for harmful drinkers (-3.15 units per week).
  • Groups are impacted differentially:
  • 11-18 year olds (-4.0%)
  • 18-24 year old hazardous drinkers (-0.7%)
  • All-age hazardous drinkers have smaller reductions (-1.8%) but the absolute scale of reduction is much larger (-0.47 units per week).
  • Moderate drinkers are affected in a small way (-0.07 units per week).
  • Effects on health are estimated to be substantial with deaths estimated to reduce by 157 within the first year and a full effect after 10 years of 1,381. Again deaths are differentially distributed across the groups, with 2 saved in year 1 for 11-18 year olds but 48 for hazardous, 98 for harmful and 12 for moderate drinkers. Illness also decreased with an estimated reduction of 2,900 acute and 1,500 chronic illnesses within year 1.
  • Hospital admissions are estimated to reduce by 6,300 in year 1 and a full effect after 10 years of 40,800 avoided admissions per annum.
  • Healthcare service costs are estimated to change by £25m in year 1, with a Quality Adjusted Life Year ( QALY) gain valued at £63 million.
  • Crime is estimated to fall by 16,000 offences overall.
  • The harm avoided in terms of victim quality of life is valued at £21 million.
  • Criminal Justice system costs are estimated to reduce by £17 million.
  • Workplace harms are reduced by 12,400 fewer unemployed people and 100,400 fewer sick days.