We are testing a new beta website for gov.scot go to new site

High Level Summary of Equality Statistics: Key Trends for Scotland 2006

Listen

1. Population & Migration

Introduction to Population and Migration and Equality

This section of the High Level Summary of Equality Statistics ( HLSES) presents key information on Scotland's population and migration across a number of equality dimensions including age, disability, ethnicity, gender and religion. The future impact of Scotland's ageing population is also covered in more detail in the main High Level Summary of Statistics ( HLSS) chapter on population and migration which can be viewed on the Scottish Executive statistics website at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics.

The analysis is not intended to provide a definitive set of population or migration data for the above equality dimensions and more detailed statistics, where available, are referenced in the links provided. It is also not possible to break down all topics by all equality dimensions.

Possible reasons underlying the differences reported in this chapter are not detailed here. Factors which contribute to differences between equality groups represent a complex interplay of cultural, demographic and socio-economic factors and, as such are outwith the scope of this publication.

It should be noted that during the 1991 Census, the term gender was used but for the 2001 Census publications, a decision was taken to change the wording from gender to sex. For continuity, the term gender is adopted throughout this publication.

Life Expectancy

Life Expectancy: Gender

Life expectancy of males and females in Scotland is improving but is still well below the UK and most parts of Europe (as shown in the charts below). Life expectancy data for people (including males and females) in Scotland, for 2003 to 2005, are available from the General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) and can be obtained using the link provided below.

image of Life expectancy at birth, 2003, selected countries, Males

image of Life expectancy at birth, 2003, selected countries, Females

Source: GAD ( UK and constituent countries) and Eurostat
Note: 1. 2003 data are the latest Eurostat figures available for all countries listed.

Web Link

Life Expectancy for Administrative Areas within Scotland, 2003-2005 http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/life-expectancy/le2003-05/index.html

Population Profiles

Population Profile: Gender

Fifty-two per cent of Scotland's population are female (2.63 million) and 48% are male (2.45 million) as at 30 June 2005. In the first half of the decade the population declined very slightly for males and females, however in recent years there has been a very slight upturn for both the number of males and females.

image of Population Estimates for Scotland, by Gender, 1996 to 2005

Source: General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) - Mid Year Population Estimates, 1996 to 2005
Note: 1. As at 30 June in each respective year.

Publications

Social Focus on Women and Men 2002 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/sfwm/docs/sfwm-00.asp

Mid-2005 Population Estimates Scotland http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/mid-2005-population-estimates/index.html

Web Link

General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/

Population Profile: Ethnic Group

Population information on Scotland's ethnic groups is collected in Scotland's Census which takes place every 10 years. Data were collected for the first time in 1991 and were subsequently collected on the 2001 Census. Between 1991 and 2001, the classification used to collect information on ethnic group was revised in order to better reflect the diversity of Scotland's ethnic groups and these changes are reflected in the breakdowns provided below. The next Census will take place in 2011 and the Scottish Executive are currently reviewing the 2001 ethnicity classification (links to more information about review are provided below).

The size of the minority ethnic population was just over 100,000 in 2001 or 2.0% of the total population of Scotland (based on the 2001 ethnicity classification). This compares to just over 60,000 in 1991 or 1.2% (based on the 1991 ethnicity classification). Whilst the total Scottish population increased by 1.3% during this time, Scotland's minority ethnic population increased by 62.3%.

Pakistanis were the largest minority ethnic group, followed by Chinese, Indians and those from Any Mixed Backgrounds in 2001. Over 70% of the total minority ethnic population were Asian: Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Chinese or Other South Asian and over 12% of the total minority ethnic population described their ethnic group as Mixed.

Scottish Population by Ethnic Group, 2001

Column Percentages & Number

2001

% of Total Population

% of Minority Ethnic Population

Base

White Scottish

88.09

n/a

4,459,071

Other White British

7.38

n/a

373,685

White Irish

0.98

n/a

49,428

Other White

1.54

n/a

78,150

Indian

0.3

14.79

15,037

Pakistani

0.63

31.27

31,793

Bangladeshi

0.04

1.95

1,981

Chinese

0.32

16.04

16,310

Other South Asian

0.12

6.09

6,196

Caribbean

0.04

1.75

1,778

African

0.1

5.03

5,118

Black Scottish or other Black

0.02

1.11

1,129

Any Mixed Background

0.25

12.55

12,764

Other Ethnic Group

0.19

9.41

9,571

All Minority Ethnic Population

2.01

100

101,677

All Population

100

n/a

5,062,011

Source: General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) - 2001 Census

Publication

Analysis of Ethnicity in the 2001 Census - Summary Report http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/02/18876/32937

Web Links

General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/

Ethnic Identity and the Census - Main Report (Published 2005) h ttp://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2005/06/22142242/22440

Ethnic Identity and the Census - Summary Report (Published 2005) http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2005/06/22142508/25107

Review of Census Ethnicity Classifications Consultation 2005 (Published 2005) http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2005/06/22110457/04594

Analysis of Response to Census Ethnicity Classifications Consultation 2005 (Published 2005) http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/statsdocs/ethclassconresponses05pdf

Scotland's Census Test 2006 http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/census/censushm2011/index.html

Population Profile: Ethnic Group, Age & Gender

For both males and females, minority ethnic groups have a younger age distribution than white ethnic groups; with the exception of the Caribbean group, more than 20% of the population for all other minority ethnic groups was less than 16 years olds in 2001.

The Mixed ethnic group has the youngest age structure; 44% are under the age of 16 years. The White Irish population has the highest proportion of people of pensionable age and over (27%).

image of Age Profile by Ethnic Group, Scotland, 2001 - All People

image of Age Profile by Ethnic Group, Scotland, 2001 - Males

image of Age Profile by Ethnic Group, Scotland, 2001 - Females

Source: General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) - 2001 Census
Note: 1. The age band '50 to Pensionable Age' refers to males aged between 50 and 64 years and females aged between 50 and 59 years. The age band 'Pensionable Age - 74 Yrs' refers to males aged between 65 and 74 years and females aged between 60 and 74 years. These are based on the state pension age of males and females in 2001 when the Census data were collected.

Publication

Analysis of Ethnicity in the 2001 Census - Summary Report http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/02/18876/32937

Web Link

General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/

Population Profile: Gender & Age

There are peaks of people in their mid-50s and around 40 years. This is a result of the "baby booms" after the Second World War and in the 1960s. The recent decline in births is reflected in the tapering at younger ages. There are relatively more women aged over 75.

image of Estimated Population by Gender & Age, Scotland, 30 June 2005

Source: General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) - 2005 mid-year population estimates

Publication

Social Focus on Women and Men 2002 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/sfwm/docs/sfwm-00.asp

Web Link

General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/mid-2005-population-estimates/index.html

Population Profile: Disability & Long-Term Illness

It should be noted that the data presented below on disability and long-term illness are taken from either the 2001 Census or the Scottish Household Survey ( SHS). It should be noted that the Census and the SHS use slightly different definitions of disability and long-term illness and different output categories for the data. The 2001 Census asked people if they had a long-term illness, health problem or disability which limits daily activity, responses of 'yes' or 'no' were recorded and the output category used is 'limiting long-term illness'. The SHS asks respondents if they have disability only, a long-term illness only, both a disability and a long-term illness or neither. More detailed information on the different definitions used by administrative data collections, sample surveys and the Census can be found in the Scottish Executive's publication entitled the Social Focus on Disability 2004 and a web link to this document is provided below.

Information on disability and long-term illness in Scotland is collected from both administrative and survey sources. The type of information that is collected and the definition of disability and long-term illness which is employed differ between data collections depending on the reason for the collection.

The Scottish Household Survey ( SHS) uses the following categories for disability and long-term illness; disability only, long-term illness only and disability & long-term illness. When these categories are combined, the SHS shows that the overall proportion of people reporting a disability and/ or a long-term illness and disability & long-term illness is 18% in 2005, 17% in 2003 and 16% in 2001.

image of People Reporting a Disability Only, Long-Term Illness Only or Both a Disability and Long-Term Illness (All Groups Combined), Scotland, 2001, 2003 & 2005

Source: Scottish Household Survey - 2001, 2003 & 2005

Publication

Social Focus on Disability 2004 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/08/19818/41697

Web Link

Scottish Household Survey http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/16002/4031

Population Profile: Disability Only & Age

The number of people reporting a disability increases with age and most sharply for those in older age groups.

Six per cent of people of all ages report having a disability (but not a long-term illness according to the Scottish Household Survey) in 2005 and this proportion has not changed since 2001. There is little difference in the proportion of people reporting a disability between the age of 0 and 39 years (ranging from 2 to 3 per cent in 2005). The proportion of people reporting a disability increases more steeply for older age groups and is greatest for those aged 70 year and over (17% in 2005).

image of People Reporting a Disability Only by Age Group, Scotland, 2001, 2003 & 2005

Source: Scottish Household Survey - 2001, 2003 & 2005

Publication

Social Focus on Disability 2004 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/08/19818/41697

Web Link

Scottish Household Survey http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/16002/4031

Population Profile: Long-Term Illness Only & Age

The number of people reporting a long-term illness increases with age, more sharply for older age groups.

Eight per cent of people of all ages report having a long-term illness (but not a disability according to the Scottish Household Survey) in 2005, a very slight increase from 7% in 2001. The proportion of people reporting a long-term illness increases fairly consistently with age, for example 2% of those aged 0 to 9 years, 3% of those aged 30 to 39 year and 7% of those aged 50 to 59 years in 2005. As would be expected, the proportion of people reporting a long-term illness increases more steeply for older age groups and is greatest for those aged 70 years and over (17% in 2005).

image of People Reporting a Long-Term Illness Only, by Age Group, Scotland, 2001, 2003 & 2005

Source: Scottish Household Survey - 2001, 2003 & 2005

Publication

Social Focus on Disability 2004 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/08/19818/41697

Web Link

Scottish Household Survey http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/16002/4031

Population Profile: Disability & Long-Term Illness by Age

The number of people reporting both a disability and long-term illness increases with age, more sharply for older age groups.

Four per cent of people of all ages reported having a disability and long-term illness (according to the Scottish Household Survey) in 2005, a slight increase from 2001. The proportion of people reporting a disability and long-term illness is fairly similar for those aged between 0 and 49 years (ranging from 0 to 3% in 2005). As would be expected, the proportion of people reporting a disability and long-term illness increases more steeply for older age groups and is greatest for those aged 70 years and over (13% in 2005).

image of People Reporting Both a Disability & Long-Term Illness, by Age Group, Scotland, 2001, 2003 & 2005

Source: Scottish Household Survey - 2001, 2003 & 2005

Publication

Social Focus on Disability 2004 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/08/19818/41697

Web Link

Scottish Household Survey http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/16002/4031

Population Profile: Disability and/ or Long-Term Illness by Gender

According to the Scottish Household Survey, there is very little difference in the proportion of males and females who report a disability and/ or long-term illness in 2003 and 2005.

Between 2003 and 2005 the proportion of both males and females reporting a disability only (and no long-term illness) increased slightly from 4% to 6%. The proportion of males who reported a long-term illness only (and no disability) increased very slightly from 6% to 7%, whilst for females it increased slightly from 6% to 8%. The proportion of both males and females who report a disability and long-term illness increased slightly from 2% to 4%.

image of People Reporting a Disability And/ Or Long-Term Illness, by Gender, Scotland 2003 & 2005

Source: Scottish Household Survey - 2003 & 2005

Publications

Social Focus on Disability 2004 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/08/19818/41697

Social Focus on Women and Men 2002 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/sfwm/docs/sfwm-00.asp

Web Link

Scottish Household Survey http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/16002/4031

Population Profile: Limiting Long-Term Illness by Ethnic Group & Age

According to the 2001 Census, the four white ethnic groups (all ages) have a higher rate of limiting long-term illness than minority ethnic groups (all ages). However these data are best looked at within age bands since the incidence of limiting long-term illness increases with age and since the age structure is markedly different for different ethnic groups; notably minority ethnic groups comprise a higher proportion of people in the younger age groups than white ethnic groups.

Within the 16 to 24 age group, Bangladeshi and Black Scottish or Other Black people have the highest incidence of limiting long-term illness with each group reporting 8%.

The Black Scottish or Other Black population and those from mixed ethnic backgrounds aged 25 to 34 years have the highest proportion of people with a limiting long-term illness. Within the 35 to 59 age group, Pakistanis have the highest rate of disability and/ or long-term illness (28%).

It is evident that as the population ages, a much higher proportion of people report a limiting long-term illness. For all ethnic groups, at least 50% of people aged 60 years and over report themselves to have a limiting long-term illness. This is highest for the Pakistani group with 66% having a limiting long-term illness.

People in the White Irish group have the highest proportion of people reporting a limiting long-term illness, 26% for all ages. However this will in part reflect the fact that this ethnic group has the highest proportion of people of state pension age and over.

Proportion of All People Reporting A Limiting Long-Term Ilness by Ethnic Group & Age Scotland, 2001

Percentage & Number

Ethnic Group

Scotland, 2001

Age Group

Percentage

Base

0-15 Yrs

16-24 Yrs

25-34 Yrs

35-59 Yrs

60 Yrs & Over

All Ages

All People

5

6

9

19

51

20

5,062,011

White Scottish

5

6

10

20

51

21

4,459,071

Other White British

5

5

7

15

47

18

373,685

White Irish

5

5

7

21

55

26

49,428

Other White

4

4

6

14

51

14

78,150

Indian

4

5

6

18

56

13

15,037

Pakistani

5

7

10

28

66

16

31,793

Bangladeshi

5

8

6

21

45

12

1,981

Other South Asian

5

5

10

19

53

13

6,196

Chinese

4

3

3

12

49

9

16,310

Caribbean

5

7

9

15

48

14

1,778

African

5

6

5

11

45

8

5,118

Black Scottish or other Black

5

8

12

23

55

17

1,129

Any Mixed Background

5

7

12

22

54

12

12,764

Other Ethnic Group

4

4

4

11

44

8

9,571

Source: General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) - 2001 Census

Publications

Social Focus on Disability 2004 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/08/19818/41697

Analysis of Ethnicity in the 2001 Census - Summary Report http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/02/18876/32937

Web Link

General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/

Population Profile: Limiting Long-Term Illness by Religion Group, Age & Gender

Information on Scotland's religion groups is collected on Scotland's Census which takes place every 10 years. Data were collected for the first time on the 2001 Census and will be collected again in 2011.

Across all religion groups, women aged 75 years and over are more likely to have a limiting long-term illness, compared to men in the same age group. The largest differences are seen for Sikhs and Muslims. For example, 70% of Sikh women and 74% of Muslim women aged 75 and over report a limiting long-term illness, whilst the figures for Sikh and Muslim men of the same age are 65% and 55% respectively. However, in part these differences will reflect the fact that there are more females than males aged 75 and over and females in this age group have a longer life expectancy and hence a greater number are likely to develop a limiting long-term illness than men.

Proportion of All People with a Limiting Long-Term Illness by Current Religion, Age Group & Gender, Scotland, 2001

Percentage & Number

Religion Group

Gender

Scotland, 2001

Age Group

Percentage

Base

0-15 Yrs

16-29 Yrs

30-49 Yrs

50 Yrs to Pensionable Age

Pensionable Age to 74 Yrs

75Yrs & Over

All People

Church of Scotland

Male

5

7

13

30

46

61

22

984,229

Female

4

6

13

26

40

67

25

1,162,022

Roman Catholic

Male

6

8

16

41

57

68

22

372,020

Female

4

7

16

36

50

72

24

431,712

Other Christian

Male

5

7

12

28

46

63

20

151,186

Female

4

6

14

27

41

68

24

193,376

Buddhist

Male

5

8

18

32

47

59

18

3,465

Female

4

7

14

28

42

69

16

3,365

Hindu

Male

5

3

5

23

49

77

10

3,038

Female

2

4

10

24

57

82

11

2,526

Jewish

Male

4

4

11

24

40

61

21

3,107

Female

2

7

10

24

37

67

26

3,341

Muslim

Male

6

7

14

45

63

61

14

22,621

Female

4

6

19

50

70

74

15

19,936

Sikh

Male

5

5

16

39

51

55

14

3,401

Female

3

5

17

42

63

70

17

3,171

Another Religion

Male

6

8

16

32

46

65

13

17,366

Female

5

10

21

34

48

70

19

9,608

None

Male

6

7

12

27

47

62

14

731,348

Female

4

7

12

26

42

66

13

663,112

Not Answered

Male

6

9

16

33

51

68

18

140,713

Female

4

8

15

30

46

73

21

137,348

All Religion Groups

Male

5

7

13

31

48

62

19

2,432,494

Female

4

7

14

28

42

68

21

2,629,517

Source: General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) - 2001 Census

Publications

Social Focus on Disability 2004 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/08/19818/41697

Social Focus on Women and Men 2002 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/sfwm/docs/sfwm-00.asp

Web Link

General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/

Population Profile: Religion Group

Just over two-thirds of the Scottish population reported currently having a religion in the 2001 Census. More than six out of ten people said that their religion was Christian (65.09%); 42.40% Church of Scotland, 15.88% Roman Catholic and 6.81% Other Christian.

The Other Christian group includes a wide range of groups. Examples of write-in answers include the Church of England, Evangelical, and Greek Orthodox, Jehovah's Witness, Methodist, Spiritualist and many others.

After Christianity, Islam was the most common faith with 0.84% (42,600 people) describing their religion as Muslim. This is followed by people from Another Religion (0.53% or 27,000 people), Buddhists (0.13% or 6,000 people), Sikhs (0.13% or 6,600 people), Jews (0.13% or 6,400 people), and Hindus (0.11% or 5,600 people). Overall, people in these religion groups account for 2.80% of all people in all religion groups.

image of Current Religion in Scotland (Percentage & Number '000s), All People, 2001

Source: General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) - 2001 Census

Publication

Analysis of Religion in the 2001 Census - Summary Report http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2005/02/20757/53568

Web Link

General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/

Population Profile: Religion Group & Age & Sex

Of those who answered the religion question in the 2001 Census, Muslims have the youngest age profile with 31% aged less than 16 years. This is followed by Sikhs (27%) and those with no religion (24%). In contrast, the age profile of Christian and Jewish groups is much older. Over a quarter (27%) of those belonging to the Church of Scotland and 30% of Jews are of pensionable age or above. Similarly, 23% of Other Christians and 17% of Roman Catholics are within this age group.

The Christian and Jewish groups also have the oldest age profiles for both men and women. There are, however, a greater proportion of women in the older age groups than there are men. For example, thirty-six per cent of Jewish women are of pensionable age and over, compared to 23% of Jewish men. Thirty-three per cent of women in the Church of Scotland group, 22% of women in the Roman Catholic group and 28% of women in the Other Christian group are of pensionable age or over. This compares to 28%, 12% and 16% of men in these religion groups respectively.

image of Age Profile of by Current Religion, Scotland, 2001 - All People

image of Age Profile of Current Religion, Scotland, 2001 - Males

image of Age Profile by Current Religion, Scotland, 2001 - Females

Source: General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) - 2001 Census

Publications

Analysis of Religion in the 2001 Census - Summary Report http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2005/02/20757/53568

Social Focus on Women and Men 2002 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/sfwm/docs/sfwm-00.asp

Web Link

General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/

Population Profile: Religion Group & Ethnic Group

Virtually all people whose religious affiliation is to the Church of Scotland are from a white ethnic group (99.8%). The vast majority of people from the other Christian backgrounds are also white; 99.1% of Roman Catholics and 98.1% of Other Christians are from a white ethnic group. Jewish people are also primarily from a white background (96.2%).

Two-thirds of Muslims (66.6%) are of Pakistani origin. Sikhs and Hindus are predominantly Indian with 85.9% and 82.4% respectively from this ethnic group.

The most ethnically diverse religious group is Buddhism. Just over half (51.8%) of Buddhists are from a white ethnic group. The remainder comprise people from the following ethnic groups; Chinese (28.0%), Other Ethnic groups (13.7%), Other South Asian (3.7%), Mixed (1.7%) and Indian (0.7%).

image of Current Religion by Ethnic Group, All People, Scotland, 2001

Source: General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) - 2001 Census

Publications

Analysis of Religion in the 2001 Census - Summary Report http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2005/02/20757/53568

Analysis of Ethnicity in the 2001 Census - Summary Report http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/02/18876/32937

Web Link

General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/

Projected Population

Projected Population: Gender

Scotland's male and female population is estimated to rise until 2021, after which it is expected to slowly decline by 2031.

image of Projected Population for Scotland (2004-Based), by Gender, 2004-2031

Source: Government Actuary's Department 2004-based projections

Publications

Social Focus on Women and Men 2002 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/sfwm/docs/sfwm-00.asp

Projected Population of Scotland (2004-based) http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/popproj/04population-projections/index.html

Web Links

General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/

Government Actuary's Department ( GAD) http://www.gad.gov.uk/Population_Projections/Population_projections_background.htm

Projected Population: Gender & Age

For younger age groups, the number of males and females is projected to decline, whilst it is set to rise among older age groups.

In general, Scotland's male and female populations are projected to decline for those aged 49 years and under between 2004 and 2031. Most notably, the male population aged 65 years and over is projected to rise steadily from 341 thousand in 2004 to 581 thousand in 2031 (up 71%), whilst for females it is projected to rise from 486 thousand to 727 thousand (up 50%).

image of Projected Population of Scotland (2004-Based), by Age Group, 2004 to 2031 - Males

image of Projected Population of Scotland (2004-Based), by Age Group, 2004-2031 - Females

Source: General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS)

Publications

Social Focus on Women and Men 2002 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/sfwm/docs/sfwm-00.asp

Projected Population of Scotland (2004-based) http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/popproj/04population-projections/index.html

Web Links

General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/

Government Actuary's Department ( GAD) http://www.gad.gov.uk/Population_Projections/Population_projections_background.htm

Projected Population: Age

Looking forward, Scotland can expect to see fewer people in the younger age groups and more older people (particularly aged 75 and over).

image of The Projected Percentage Change In Age Structure of Scotland's Population, 2004-2031

Source: Government Actuary's Department
Note: 1. 2004-based projections.

Publication

Projected Population of Scotland (2004-based) http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/popproj/04population-projections/index.html

Web Links

General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/index.html

Government Actuary's Department ( GAD) http://www.gad.gov.uk/Population_Projections/Population_projections_background.htm

Projected Population: Broad Age Group

The percentage of the population who are children and who are of working age is projected to decline in the future. In part, the projected decrease in the working age population is offset by the increase in state pension age to 65 for both sexes between 2010 and 2020. Conversely the proportion of the population who are of pension age is projected to increase.

Age Structure of Scotland's Population 2004-2041

Column Percentages

Age Group

2004

2011

2021

2031

2041

Children 1

18

17

16

16

15

Working Age 2

63

63

63

59

57

Pension Age 2

19

20

21

26

28

Source: General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) - 2004 Mid-Year Population Estimates Government Actuary's Department - 2004-Based National Population Projections
Notes: 1. Children under the age of 16 years.
2. Working age and pensionable age populations are based on the state pension age for the given year. Between 2010 and 2020, state pension age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women, to 65 years for both sexes.

Publication

Projected Population of Scotland (2004-based) http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/popproj/04population-projections/index.html

Web Links

General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/index.html

Government Actuary's Department ( GAD) http://www.gad.gov.uk/Population_Projections/Population_projections_background.htm

Household Estimates and Projections

Household Estimates and Projections: Age

Scotland's population is ageing, with more people in the older age groups and fewer in the younger age groups. This has an impact on household structure, as children tend to live in larger households and older people in smaller ones.

The greatest projected increases are in households headed by people aged 60 or over (an increase of over a third between 2004 and 2024, from 730,000 to 990,000). In contrast, households headed by someone aged under 60 are projected to increase by just two per cent, to around 1.55 million. The number of households headed by someone aged 85 or over is projected to more than double over the same period, from 56,000 to 120,000.

image of Projected Number of Households in Scotland, by Age of Head of Household, 2004 and 2024

Source: General Register Office for Scotland: 2004-based Household Projections

Publication

Household Projects for Scotland: 2004-based http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/household-estimates-projections/household-projections-for-scotland-2004-based/index.html

Web Link

General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/index.html

Household Estimates and Projections: Age & Gender

In 2004, 19% of people aged 16 or over lived alone, and this is projected to rise to 25% by 2024. The figures vary according to gender and age. In most age groups up to their mid-50s, men are more likely to live alone than women. However, from the age of 55 onwards, women are more likely to live alone, and the figures increase with age. This is influenced by women's greater life expectancy, and the tendency of women to marry men who are older than them. 56% of women aged 85 or over lived alone in 2004, and this is projected to rise to 70% by 2024.

The gap between the average life expectancy of men and women in Scotland is decreasing, as men are living longer. In the 60+ age group, this is leading to a greater projected increase in the number of men living alone between 2004 and 2024 (up by 60%), and the number of two adult households (up by 40%), when compared with the number of women living alone (up by 30%).

image of Percentage of People Living Alone, by Age & Gender, Scotland, 2004

image of Projected Percentage of People Living Alone, by Age and Gender, Scotland, 2024

Source: General Register Office for Scotland: 2004-based Household Projections

Publication

Household Projects for Scotland: 2004-based http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/household-estimates-projections/household-projections-for-scotland-2004-based/index.html

Web Link

General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/index.html

Migration

Movements between Scotland and the Rest of the UK: Age & Gender

The age and gender of migrants remains relatively constant from year to year. The peak ages for migrating are the late teens to mid-twenties reflecting moves out of the parental home for higher education or employment. There also tend to be smaller peaks for moves of the very young, under the age of five, as their parents move home before the children have started school. The pattern of migration is very similar for men and women, though more women than men tend to migrate in their early twenties. However, this may reflect different patterns of re-registering with an NHS doctor after a move (the main migration source for migration estimates) rather then different patterns of migration.

image of Movements between Scotland and the Rest of the UK, by Age, Mid 2004 to Mid 2005, Males

image of Movements between Scotland and the Rest of the UK, by Age, Mid 2004 to Mid 2005, Females

Source: The National Health Service Central Register

Web Link

General Register Office for Scotland http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/migration.html