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Changing Our Ways: Scotland's Climate Change Programme

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Annex E: Supporting Analysis for the Scottish Share

Reserved policy measures in the UK Climate Change Programme

Sector

Policy

Annual carbon savings in 2010 ( MtC)

In UKCCP 2000

Business

Climate Change Levy, including exemption for CHP and renewables

3.7

Climate Change Agreements with energy intensive sectors and implementation of IPPC

2.8

Domestic

Energy Efficiency Commitment ( EEC 2002-11)

1.6

Community Energy Programme

0.03

Transport

Voluntary Agreement Package (company car tax, vehicle excise duty, voluntary agreements)

2.3

Transport Ten Year Plan (including sustainable distribution)

0.8

Total for policies in UKCCP 2000

11.23

Introduced since UKCCP 2000

Domestic

Product Policy - Market Transformation Programme

0.2

Reduced VAT rate on grant funded installations of energy saving measures and heating products

0.1

Reduced VAT rate on EEC installations of energy saving measures

Negligible

Reduced VAT rate on heating controls

0.1

Transport

Fuel duty escalator for petrol and diesel

1.4

Total for policies introduced since UKCCP 2000

1. 8

New in UKCCP 2006

Domestic

Enhanced EEC for households (2008-11)

0.5

Products Policy - consumer information and standards for lights and other energy-using products

0.2

Transport

Future voluntary agreement with car manufacturers on reduced CO 2 emissions

0.1

Vehicle Excise Duty

Total for new measures in UKCCP 2006

0.8

Overall total for UK reserved measures

13.8 MtC

  • The most recently available estimates of carbon savings are used. Most are from Oxera's Synthesis of Climate Change Policy Evaluations (2006), carried out on behalf of Defra and the devolved administrations as part of the review process. Some of these estimates update the figures included in the UKCCP 2000. Not all of the figures in this and the next table are in the UKCCP as it focuses its analysis on carbon dioxide.
  • All of these reserved policies will have an impact in Scotland, leading to a reduction in Scottish emissions. Using an 8.3% population factor (see later comment) to derive the Scottish impact of these reserved policies gives an estimate of 1.1 MtC by 2010.

Devolved policy measures in the UK Climate Change Programme

Sector

Policy

Annual carbon savings in 2010 ( MtC)

In UKCCP 2000

Agriculture, forestry, land use

Woodland planting (Scotland only, revised estimate)

0.5

Business

Carbon Trust activities (throughout UK)

1.2

UK Emissions Trading Scheme ( UKETS) CO 2

0.26

UKETS N 20 and CH4

0.27

UKETS F-gases

0.16

Building Regulations 2002 non-domestic (England and Wales only)

0.77

Energy

Renewables Obligation (throughout UK)

2.47

Domestic

Building Regulations 2002 (and 2006) domestic (England and Wales only)

1.4

Public

Energy efficiency targets for central government and NHS estates, UK universities and English schools (throughout UK, but not full coverage in Scotland)

0.2

Total for devolved policies in UKCCP 2000

7.23

Introduced since UKCCP 2000

Agriculture, forestry, land use

Woodland Grant Scheme (England only)

0.16

Energy Crops Scheme (England only)

0.01

Business

IPPC and F-gases (throughout UK)

1.31

Voluntary agreements and F-gases (throughout UK)

0.04

Domestic

Warm front and equivalent devolved schemes (throughout UK)

0.44

NI-Energy Efficiency Levy (Northern Ireland only)

0.08

Public sector

Central Energy Efficiency Fund (Northern Ireland)

0.05

Central Energy Efficiency Fund (Scotland)

0.02

Waste

Waste Management

2.9

Total for devolved policies introduced since UKCCP 2000

5.00

New in UKCPP 2006

Agriculture

Expansion in use of non-food crops (England only)

0.1

Forestry Strategy (Scotland only, additional to 2000 estimate)

0.15

Business

EUETS (throughout the UK)

5.5 67

Obligation on energy suppliers to encourage SMEs to take up energy saving opportunities

0.1

Transport

Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation (throughout UK)

1.6

Domestic

Package of measures to improve energy efficiency in buildings (England and Wales only)

0.1

Implementation of EPBD and provision of advice to stimulate early replacement of inefficient boilers (England and Wales only)

0.2

Better billing and metering

0.2

Public Sector

Carbon Trust funding for public sector

0.1

Additional effort by local authorities (England only)

0.2

Energy

Subsidy for renewable heat (England only)

0.1

Other

0.25

Total for new devolved measures in UKCCP 2006

8.60

Total devolved measures in UKCCP

20.83

Minus double count from forestry and renewables (see below)

0.12

Overall total for devolved policies in UKCCP

20.71

Scottish Share of UK devolved policies (conversion factor of 8.3% based on projected population in 2010)

1.7

  • The inclusion of policies and schemes in the table has been restricted in the main to those where estimates of carbon savings are available, although the impact of other policies is expected to be small. The most recently available estimates of carbon savings are used. Most are from Oxera's Synthesis of Climate Change Policy Evaluations (2006), carried out on behalf of Defra and the devolved administrations. Some of these estimates update the figures included in the UKCCP 2000.
  • Many of these devolved policies (eg Renewables Obligation, ETS, RTFO) are implemented in a similar way throughout the UK following agreement between the UK government and devolved administrations. Some policies are common across the UK but implemented in different ways in each administration (eg Building Regulations,
    agri-environment schemes, forestry schemes).
  • A population factor of 8.3% is applied to calculate the Scottish Share. Population projections are available from the General Register Office for Scotland and the Government Actuary's Department. Sector-specific factors were considered (eg using land area for agriculture and forestry) and provide a similar outcome. Population is used for all sectors for consistency and simplicity.
  • A small double count between the agriculture, forestry and land use and energy sectors has been taken account of. This arises as biomass and short rotation coppice to replace fossil fuels in the generation of heat and electricity has been counted at both the point of growth and the point of use.

Devolved policy measures in Scotland's Climate Change Programme

Sector

Policy

Annual carbon savings in 2010 ( MtC)

In SCCP 2000

Agriculture, forestry, land use

Scottish Forestry Strategy

0.5 68

Business

Carbon Trust activities in Scotland

0.10

Scottish building regulations 2002 non-domestic

0.03

UKETSCO 2

0.02

UKETS N 20 and CH4

0.02

UKETS F-gases

0.01

Domestic

Warm Deal and Central Heating Programme (Scottish equivalent of Warm Front)

0.08

Scottish building regulations 2002 domestic

0.03

Energy

Renewables Obligation Scotland

0.81

Public

Energy efficiency targets for central government and NHS estates, UK universities and English schools (replaced individual targets for SPS, NHSiS, SEPA etc in SCCP)

0.02

Total for devolved policies in SCCP 2000

1.62

Introduced since SCCP 2000

Business

Loan Action Scotland

0.00

IPCC and F-gases

0.11

Voluntary agreements and F-gases

0.00

Public

Central Energy Efficiency Fund (Scotland)

0.02

Waste

Waste Management

0.24

Total for devolved policies introduced since SCCP 2000

0.37

New in SCCP 2006

Agriculture, forestry, land use

Additional measures in the Scottish Forestry Strategy (increased afforestation, short-rotation coppice, and use of wood fuel)

0.15

Business

EUETS Phase II cap

0.45 69

Transport

Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation

0.13

Total for new devolved measures in SCCP 2006

0.73

Total devolved measures in SCCP

2.72

Minus double count from forestry and renewables

-0.12

Overall total for devolved policies in SCCP 2006

2.6

  • The inclusion of policies and schemes in the table has been restricted in the main to those where estimates of carbon savings are available in a consistent manner throughout the UK. This table does not, therefore, reflect the full range of devolved activity in Scotland, although the impact of other policies is expected to be small.
  • The carbon savings in this table are a subset of, rather than an addition to, those in the preceding tables ie in the UKCCP. The Scottish impact has been determined from the Oxera Synthesis Report which presents the analysis of policies - devolved and reserved - at UK level. In most cases the Scottish impact is considered to be broadly proportional to its UK population share with two notable exceptions.
    • The impact of Scottish participation in the EUETS. Scotland is known to have around 10% of all UK installations in Phase 1. Using 10% would show Scotland contributing a greater proportion of carbon savings from this policy compared with using the population conversion factor of 8.3%. Therefore the population factor has been applied for consistency with other policies, and as this presents a more cautious estimate of Scottish impact.
    • The impact of the Renewables Obligation in Scotland was analysed separately as, in terms of renewable energy, Scotland has a significantly higher proportion of resources. As such Scotland's carbon savings have been disaggregated from the UK figures in line with relative resource allocations, rather than population share.