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Road Accidents Scotland 2004

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The casualty reduction targets for 2010

Figure 5

Figure 5 (a) killed or seriously injured casualtiesFigure 5 (b) child killed or seriously injured casualties

Figure 5 (c) slight casualties

The casualty reduction targets for the year 2010

In March 2000, the UK Government, the Scottish Executive and the National Assembly for Wales announced a new national road safety strategy and casualty reduction targets for 2010. These new targets were introduced to focus on achieving a further substantial improvement in road safety over the next ten years, with particular emphasis on child casualties. The new targets, which are given in the document "Tomorrow's roads - safer for everyone", are based on the annual average casualty levels over the period 1994 to 1998. By 2010 it is hoped that there will be, compared with the average for 1994-98:

  • a 40% reduction in the number of people killed or seriously injured in road accidents.
  • a 50% reduction in the number of children killed or seriously injured; and
  • a 10% reduction in the slight casualty rate, expressed as the number of people slightly injured per 100 million vehicle kilometres.

Progress towards the 2010 casualty reduction targets

The charts on the page opposite show progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2010. The thick black lines show the figures that have been recorded so far, the horizontal dashed lines show the baseline averages, and the dotted lines going downwards indicate how the figures would have to fall if the targets for 2010 were to be achieved by means of a constant percentage reduction in each year. The method of deriving these 'target lines' is described at the end of this section.

With this method, the target lines imply the following reductions from the 1994-98 baselines by the year 2004:

Killed or seriously injured:

25.3%

Child killed or seriously injured:

32.7%

Slight casualty rate (per 100m veh-km)

5.8%

Therefore any falls which are greater than these suggest more rapid progress than the relevant indicative target line.

The figures relating to each target:

  • There were 3,048 people killed or seriously injured in 2004, 37% (1,790) below the 1994-98 average of 4,838. The figure for 2004 is below the relevant indicative target line, and therefore the reduction so far has been greater than would be needed to achieve the 2010 target fall of 40% by means of a constant annual percentage reduction.
  • 383 children were killed or seriously injured in 2004, 55% (459) below the 1994-98 average of 842, so the target of a 50% reduction has been met.
  • The slight casualty rate of 35.97 casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres in 2004 was 23% below the 1994-98 baseline average of 46.42, so the 2010 target of a 10% reduction has been achieved.

Killed or seriously injured casualties by mode of transport

As noted above, the relevant indicative "target line" figure for 2004 is 25.3% below the 1994-98 baseline average. The top part of Table G shows that, in 2004, the numbers of killed or seriously injured ( KSI) casualties for most modes of transport were well below this target line, with falls such as 46% for pedestrian KSI casualties and 37% for car KSI casualties. However, there was one exception: motorcycle KSI casualties rose by 9%.

Table G
Killed and seriously injured casualties by mode of transport

Pedestrian

Pedal cycle

Motor cycle

Car

Bus/ coach

Goods (1)

Other (2)

All road users

1994-98 average

1,376

249

355

2,501

96

172

89

4,838

1994

1,647

316

353

2,804

150

211

90

5,571

1995

1,587

292

395

2,653

105

211

96

5,339

1996

1,279

216

300

2,293

96

137

77

4,398

1997

1,211

210

358

2,365

55

136

89

4,424

1998

1,156

210

371

2,390

76

163

91

4,457

1999

1,143

189

431

2,004

83

144

81

4,075

2000

996

176

475

1,978

80

121

67

3,893

2001

918

171

454

1,952

62

129

72

3,758

2002

891

151

455

1,777

59

141

50

3,524

2003

773

139

417

1,692

70

127

64

3,282

2004

746

127

389

1,569

65

95

57

3,048

2000-04 average

865

153

438

1,794

67

123

62

3,501

Numbers in 2010 implied by target

826

149

213

1,501

58

103

53

2,903

Percent changes:

2004 on 2003

-3

-9

-7

-7

-7

-25

-11

-7

2004 on 1994-98 average

-46

-49

9

-37

-33

-45

-36

-37

Child killed and seriously injured casualties by mode of transport

Pedestrian

Pedal cycle

Motor cycle

Car

Bus/ coach

Goods (1)

Other (2)

All road users

1994-98 average

562

100

6

145

11

8

10

842

1994

674

144

6

161

24

12

8

1029

1995

638

113

7

153

9

13

17

950

1996

540

100

4

118

15

3

10

790

1997

505

78

4

138

3

7

10

745

1998

455

64

8

153

6

6

6

698

1999

430

69

5

108

2

2

9

625

2000

378

65

7

94

7

5

5

561

2001

353

56

7

110

5

6

7

544

2002

340

46

7

111

9

7

7

527

2003

272

48

5

93

5

2

6

431

2004

246

40

10

77

3

3

4

383

2000-04 average

318

51

7

97

6

5

6

489

Numbers in 2010 implied by target

281

50

3

72

6

4

5

421

Percent changes: (3)

2004 on 2003

-10

-17

100

-17

-40

50

-33

-11

2004 on 1994-98 average

-56

-60

72

-47

-74

-63

-61

-55

Slight casualties by mode of transport

Pedestrian

Pedal cycle

Motor cycle

Car

Bus/ coach

Goods (1)

Other (2)

All road users

Traffic

Slight casualty rate

numbers

mill veh-km

per 100 mill veh-km

1994-98 average

3,009

1,034

580

10,859

912

583

501

17,478

37,653

46

1994

3,083

1,068

577

10,123

1,084

669

398

17,002

36,000

47

1995

3,048

1,031

576

10,321

802

579

498

16,855

36,736

46

1996

3,047

1,081

550

10,740

902

499

499

17,318

37,777

46

1997

2,944

1,062

590

11,669

886

525

529

18,205

38,582

47

1998

2,921

930

605

11,444

887

643

580

18,010

39,169

46

1999

2,620

828

594

10,902

841

609

534

16,928

39,770

43

2000

2,606

708

654

10,672

854

542

582

16,618

39,572

42

2001

2,488

745

724

10,343

761

595

499

16,155

40,065

40

2002

2,424

677

709

10,054

800

620

459

15,743

41,535

38

2003

2,213

663

697

10,048

817

538

474

15,450

42,038

37

2004

2,317

646

597

9,980

846

557

414

15,357

42,691

36

2000-04 average

2,410

688

676

10,219

816

570

486

15,865

41,180

39

Rate in 2010 implied by target

42

Percent changes:

2004 on 2003

5

-3

-14

-1

4

4

-13

-1

2

-2

2004 on 1994-98 average

-23

-38

3

-8

-7

-4

-17

-12

13

-23

1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport
3. A percentage change is not shown if the baseline figure is small.

Over half of all the 3,048 KSI casualties in 2004 were car users. The total of 1,569 car KSI casualties in 2004 was 37% below the 1994-98 baseline average of 2,501, and therefore better than the indicative target line reduction. There were 746 pedestrian KSI casualties in 2004, 46% fewer than the annual average of 1,376 for the period 1994-98. However, the number of motorcycle KSI casualties in 2004 was 389, an increase of 9% (34) from the 1994-98 average: this was the only category of road user for which the figure in 2004 was above the indicative target line. There were 127 pedal cycle KSI casualties, 49% below the 1994-98 average. The numbers of KSI casualties were smaller for each of the remaining categories of road user (bus/coach, goods vehicles and others).

Child killed or seriously injured casualties by mode of transport

The indicative target line figure for 2004 is 32.7% below the 1994-98 average. The middle part of Table G shows that, in 2004, the figures for the three main categories of child road user casualty were well below the relevant indicative target lines, with one fall of 60%, one of 56% and one of 47%.

About two-thirds of the 383 children killed or seriously injured ( KSI) in 2004 were pedestrians. The number of child pedestrian KSI casualties in 2004 was 246, 316 (56%) below the 1994-98 average of 562, and therefore better than the indicative target line reduction. There were 77 child car KSI casualties in 2004, a fall of 68 (47%) from the 1994-98 average of 145, and therefore below the indicative target line. Child pedal cycle KSI casualties in 2004 were below the indicative target line: there were 40, a reduction of 60% from the 1994-98 average of 100. There are few child KSI casualties for other modes of transport, so small fluctuations in their numbers can cause apparently large percentage changes from the 1994-98 baseline average levels.

Slightly injured casualties by mode of transport

By 2004, the indicative target line has a reduction of 5.8% in the slight casualty rate. Because of the limited availability of detailed reliable road traffic estimates for Scotland, the bottom part of Table G shows the numbers of slight casualties (rather than slight casualty rates) for various categories of road user. The table also shows the overall total volume of traffic and the overall slight casualty rate. Most of the road user categories had percentage falls in their numbers of slight casualties that were better than that of the slight casualty rate's indicative target line. Almost two-thirds of slight casualties in 2003 were car users. The total number of car user slight casualties in 2004 was 9,980, 8% below the 1994-98 average of 10,859, and therefore better than the slight casualty rate's indicative target line fall of 5.8%. There were 2,317 slight pedestrian casualties 23% less than the 1994-98 average of 3,009, a reduction much better than that of the indicative target line for the slight casualty rate. Bus and coach user slight casualties totalled 846 in 2004, 7% fewer than the 1994-98 average, the number of pedal cyclist slight casualties (646) was 38% below the baseline average, goods vehicle user slight casualties (557) were 4% below the baseline average and "other" road user slight casualties (414) were 17% less than the baseline average. However, there was a rise in motorcyclist slight casualties (557 in 2004, 23% above the 1994-98 average).

Assessing progress towards the casualty reduction targets

The indicative target lines shown in Figure 5

One way of assessing progress towards the targets is to compare actual casualty numbers in each year with an indicative line that starts at the baseline figure in 1996 and falls, by a constant percentage reduction in each subsequent year, to the target for 2010. This is the approach adopted by the GB Road Safety Advisory Panel. The indicative line starts at the baseline figure in 1996 because that is the middle year of the 'baseline' period. Other approaches could have been used: there are many ways of producing lines that indicate how casualty numbers might fall fairly steadily to the targets for 2010.

The method adopted to produce the indicative target lines shown in Figure 5 involves a constant percentage reduction in each year after 1996. The resulting indicative target lines represent the percentages of the baseline averages which are shown in the table below. They are not straight lines, because of the "compounding over the years" effect of constant annual percentage reductions (to two decimal places, the falls are: 3.58% p.a. for killed or seriously injured casualties; 4.83% p.a. for child killed or seriously injured casualties; and 0.75% p.a. for the slight casualty rate).

Killed or Seriously Injured

Children Killed or Seriously Injured

Slight casualty rate (per 100 million vkm)

% of baseline

% reduction from baseline

% of baseline

% reduction from baseline

% of baseline

% reduction from baseline

1996

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

1997

96.4%

3.6%

95.2%

4.8%

99.3%

0.7%

1998

93.0%

7.0%

90.6%

9.4%

98.5%

1.5%

1999

89.6%

10.4%

86.2%

13.8%

97.8%

2.2%

2000

86.4%

13.6%

82.0%

18.0%

97.0%

3.0%

2001

83.3%

16.7%

78.1%

21.9%

96.3%

3.7%

2002

80.3%

19.7%

74.3%

25.7%

95.6%

4.4%

2003

77.5%

22.5%

70.7%

29.3%

94.9%

5.1%

2004

74.7%

25.3%

67.3%

32.7%

94.2%

5.8%

2005

72.0%

28.0%

64.0%

36.0%

93.5%

6.5%

2006

69.4%

30.6%

61.0%

39.0%

92.8%

7.2%

2007

66.9%

33.1%

58.0%

42.0%

92.1%

7.9%

2008

64.5%

35.5%

55.2%

44.8%

91.4%

8.6%

2009

62.2%

37.8%

52.5%

47.5%

90.7%

9.3%

2010

60.0%

40.0%

50.0%

50.0%

90.0%

10.0%

Other statistics for monitoring progress

Table 40 in the main section of this publication shows the "baseline" figures for each local authority area for the first two targets (separately for trunk roads, local authority roads and all roads), along with the corresponding figures for each year from 1994 and the latest five years' averages. Table 41 provides figures for each local authority area related to the third target, and Table 42 shows figures for each Police Force area related to all three targets.

In addition, many other tables include the 1994-98 baseline averages.