Statistics Publication Notice
A Scottish Executive National Statistics Publication
SCOTTISH MANUFACTURED EXPORTS ESTIMATES
FOR THE THIRD QUARTER OF 2004
12 January 2005
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Scottish manufactured export sales fell by 0.7% in real terms in 2004 Q3 and decreased by 5.8% over the year to 2004 Q3, according to estimates published today by the Scottish Executive.
The main findings are:
- Scottish manufactured export sales fell by 0.7 per cent in real terms in 2004 Q3 and decreased by 5.8 per cent over the year to 2004 Q3.
- Since 2001, the level of manufactured export sales has fallen by 24 per cent in real terms.
- Over the year to 2004 Q3, four industries had an increase in export sales in real terms - Other Manufacturing (+7.3%), Wood, Paper & Publishing (+3.6%) Food, Drink & Tobacco (+3.3%) and Textiles (+0.3%). Engineering & Allied Industries experienced the greatest decrease in export sales (-11.7%) over the year, followed by Metals (-4.8%) and Chemicals (-3.7%).
- The Food, Drink & Tobacco industry increased export sales over the latest quarter (+1.3%), as did the Wood, Paper & Publishing industry (+2.2%).
- Chemicals experienced the largest drop in export sales over the latest quarter (-4.3%), followed by Metals (-2.7%), and Other Manufacturing (-2.5%).
- Estimates of Scottish manufactured exports are compiled on the standard industrial classification UKSIC(2003). Implemented on 1 st January 2003, UKSIC(2003) is a minor revision to UKSIC(92), in line with the latest revision of the European Union classification system.
- The estimates are derived from data on sales of goods produced by the Scottish manufacturing industry for export outwith the UK. The Office for National Statistics collects the data used to produce these figures in their Monthly Production Inquiry. The data are then deflated to 2000 prices using UK export producer price indices, which are also produced by the ONS.
- Deflated exports sales of the companies covered by the survey are then grossed up to represent the entire population using the Inter Departmental Business Register (IDBR).
- The data are then seasonally adjusted where appropriate. The Scottish Executive has developed systems to seasonally adjust the series in line with standard National Statistics practice.
- The index of Scottish manufactured exports is based on a sample of around 1,000 Scottish manufacturing companies per quarter. This sample covers all sizes of unit across the manufacturing sector.
- These figures only cover the manufacturing sector. The annual estimate of total exports from Scotland derived from the Global Connections Survey indicates that the manufacturing sector accounted for 13 billion - 70 per cent of all exports from Scotland in 2003.
- Further information about the methodology of the Index of Manufactured Exports and the Global Connections Survey can be found on the website www.scotland.gov.uk/exports
Suspension of Series
- This is the third publication of quarterly manufactured exports estimates following a temporary suspension of the series in October 2003. The series was suspended to allow time to integrate the quarterly series with the development of the annual Global Connections Survey which was published for the first time in February 2004.
Presentational Changes following Suspension of Series
- The previous quarterly series included estimates in both current and constant prices. Feedback from users suggested that this caused confusion over the appropriate figures to use to calculate changes over time. The new series is in constant prices only. Constant prices estimates provide a more appropriate measure for monitoring change over time as they remove the effect of price changes and allow the change in the volume of exports to be measured. The Global Connections Survey provides an annual estimate of exports in current prices. As this is a more detailed survey with a larger sample, it is considered to provide a better estimate of the current price value of exports than the quarterly series.
- The series is now produced in index form rather than cash values. All export sales values have been deflated to 2000 prices, so cash values are not particularly meaningful. The main purpose of the series is to identify changes over time and therefore an index is more appropriate.
Comparison with Global Connections Survey
- The two publications serve different (but complementary) purposes. The Global Connections Survey provides an annual cash estimate - in current prices - of the value of exports sales for the economy as a whole. The Quarterly Index of Manufactured Exports provides a time series of growth in export sales for the manufacturing industry.
- Data have been cross-referenced with the Global Connections Survey at company level to check comparability between the two sources.
- Some of the indices for smaller industries can be particularly volatile when examined on a quarterly basis. In some cases this is due to the nature of the industry (e.g. transport equipment) and in some cases it can be due to the relatively small size of the industry in export terms (e.g. food & tobacco). For these reasons, care should be taken when drawing any conclusions from these results. Estimates of annual changes will be more robust than quarterly changes.
- The chart below details the revisions made since the index was last published in October 2004.
- Table 3 and Table 4 also provide detailed information of revisions at industry level. Quarterly revisions which balance out to zero over the year indicate that there has been a change to the seasonal pattern of the series rather than a revision to the data for any companies.
- Revisions are more substantial in this quarter's publication than last quarter, although the general trend remains the same. The main reason for revisions this quarter is the availability of data from the Global Connections Survey for 2003. As noted in paragraph 12, comparisons are made between the two surveys for a number of companies. In some cases companies provided different information for each of the surveys. Following investigation, it was felt in a small number of cases that the information provided for the Global Connections Survey was more accurate and therefore the data on the Monthly Production Inquiry (which is used for the index) was amended. In addition, some revisions are due to revisions to company data and small changes in the seasonal pattern in certain industries.
- National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.
Mercury and Profile users may obtain a copy of the Index tables by telephoning the number below or via the website www.scotland.gov.uk/exports
Office of the Chief Economic Adviser
St Andrew's House
Table 1: Quarterly Index of Scottish Manufactured Exports, in Constant prices, by Industry
Table 2: Quarterly Index of Scottish Manufactured Exports, in Constant prices, Detailed Industries
Table 3: Revisions to data published on 6 October 2004 (Table 1)
Table 4: Revisions to data published on 6 October 2004 (Table 2)