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This measures changes in Scotland's population growth rate compared to the average EU15 population growth rate, and changes in levels of healthy life expectancy in Scotland. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Mid-year population estimates published by National Records of Scotland (NRS). The estimated population includes all those usually resident, whatever their nationality. Members of UK and non-UK armed forces stationed in Scotland are included; UK forces stationed outside Scotland are excluded. Short-term international migrants are excluded. Scottish mid-year population estimates are National Statistics. Data is published on this website (http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/) and are summarised in the High Level Summary: http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/stats-at-a-glance/high-level-summary-of-statistics-trends Estimates are usually published annually in April of the following year so mid-2016 estimates will be published in April 2017 and mid-2017 estimates should be published in April 2018. The estimates for mid-2002 onwards are based on the 2011 Census. The estimates for mid-2002 to mid-2010 were revised on 17 December 2013 to take into account the results from the 2011 Census. Previously the estimates for mid-2002 to mid-2010 were based on the 2001 Census. More information on the differences between the old and revised estimates can be found on the NRS website (http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year-population-estimates). The estimates for mid-2012, mid-2013 and mid-2014 were revised on 28 April 2016 to correct errors affecting the age distribution of the population, the total population of Scotland for these years did not change. Scottish population estimates are produced using the demographic cohort component method. The estimates are based on the most recent census. Each year the population is 'aged on' one year (that is, the 0 year olds become 1 year olds and so on), the number of births in the year are added, the number of deaths subtracted and adjustments made for estimated migration (based on the best proxy sources available) and other changes in special populations.
Start of year population estimates are published by Eurostat. Population growth for the EU15 will be measured using the total (combined) population of the 15 countries - this is a Data is published on the Eurostat website, and can be found at, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat Eurostat provides two population figures for France. For measuring progress against the target we use the 'France Metropolitaine' figure, which covers the French population residing in Europe. EuroStat also revise their population estimates when new estimates are provided to them.
Produced by ISD / ScotPHO using National Records Scotland population estimates and death registrations and General Household Survey/Scottish Household Survey data on self-assessed health. HLE is derived by combining estimates of life expectancy (LE) in years with data on self-assessed health (from surveys). The three individual elements which feed into this measure are National Statistics but the measure itself isn't. These data are owned by the Scottish Public Health Observatory (ScotPHO), within the Information and Statistics Division (ISD). Data are updated annually on the ScotPHO website at: http://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/healthy-life-expectancy/introduction HLE is derived by combining estimates of life expectancy (LE) with data on self-assessed health (from surveys). Estimates of HLE are less robust than estimates of LE due to the use of survey data; the fact that health status is self-assessed brings in an element of potential bias to the estimates. HLE estimates have much wider confidence intervals than LE estimates. The methodology changed in 2009 due to a change in the question used to measure self-assessed health. This change brings Scottish HLE estimates into line with the UK and other EU countries. For more details please see the technical paper on the ScotPHO website HLE pages: http://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/healthy-life-expectancy/references | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

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Baseline period: Mid-2007 population estimates for the Scottish population figure, and January 2007 data point for the EU figure. 2003 is the baseline for Healthy Life Expectancy. The baseline population estimates for mid-2007 were revised with rebased estimates in light of the 2011 Census and published in December 2013.
As the difference in annual growth rates are dependent on the growth rates of Scotland and EU15 countries, there may be times when figures are revised following revisions from individual EU15 countries.
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The evaluation is based on: any difference in the gap within +/- 0.1 percentage points of last year's figure suggests that the position is more likely to be maintaining than showing any change. A movement of 0.1 percentage points or more in Scotland's favour suggests that the position is improving, whereas a movement of 0.1 percentage point or more to Scotland's detriment suggests that the position is worsening.
This evaluation is based on: any change in combined HLE within +/- 0.5 years of last year's figure suggests that the position is more likely to be maintaining than showing any change. An increase in combined HLE of 0.5 years or more suggests that the position is improving; whereas a decrease of 0.5 years or more suggests the position is worsening. Please note that this evaluation was previously based on change of +/- 0.8% of the previous year’s figure. These criteria are currently roughly equivalent since healthy life expectancy tends to be around 60 years and 0.8% of 60 years is equal to 0.48 years. For information on general methodological approach, please click here. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

The NRS population estimates are not due to be revised again until after 2021. EuroStat revise their population estimates when they receive new data from countries. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

The 2011 Government Economic Strategy sets out a target for Scotland: To match average European (EU15) population growth over the period from 2007 to 2017, supported by increased healthy life expectancy in Scotland over this period. Further information can be found at: |